EPL Week 2

The main question this week-end is whether Chelsea can land a title blow to Man Utd's hopes early in the season. Although it's only the second week, it's still a 6-pointer game. Mourinho has traditionally found it hard to beat Moyes' old Everton team and I think that he will encounter similar resilience on Monday. I believe there's every reason for this match to end in a draw.

Here's my view of other matches.

Aston Villa v/s Liverpool. Benteke is on fire and Villa have impressed against the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea. Liverpool have been impressive at home as well against Stoke. I think this game comes a tad too early for the hosts following their midweek exertions at Stamford Bridge. It might be worth chancing with Liverpool as a draw-no-bet at current odds.

Everton v/s West Brom. This is a good chance for the Toffees to open their home debut with a win here. West Brom will be reeling from the bombshell news regarding striker Anelka in mid-week. It's still unknown whether he's terminated his career or if he's only out for this game but the fact that he was the club's main attacking weapon means that they could be well short in this area for the game. Everton should edge this.

Fulham v/s Arsenal. I fancy Fulham to do well this year and think they will be in the first 10. Martin Jol can lead them well and they are a good force at home. Arsenal have had a topsy-turvy week; after having been rocked in their opening game, they went to dominate Fenerbache in Turkey. The Gunners will be keen not to let themselves too much early on in the season. I think they are a good draw-no-bet selection despite missing a few key players.

Hull v's Norwich. The hosts will certainly be more attack-minded than during their trip at Chelsea. I still think that will not be enough against the Canaries that managed to put 2 past Everton last week-end. I see Norwich as another good draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v's West Ham. This looks to go straight as a bore draw but I have no confidence in the prediction since it could be edged one way or the other as well.

Southampton v/s Sunderland. The Saints look as good and enterprising team as last year and should be a force to reckon with at home again. Sunderland lost their first match at home and it would be no surprise if they found the hosts too much to handle. Quality should prevail in this one and Southampton are backed to pick up 3 full points.

Stoke v/s Crystal Palace. Got to go with the Potters here as they should be able to show the same resilience at home under new boss Mark Hughes as in previous seasons. I have a feeling that Palace's chances to stay up will principally depend on points picked up at home as they won't get too many on their travels. I'll go for the Win for the hosts.

Cardiff v/s Man City. It would be a brave person to go against Man City here. They were rampant against Newcastle on Monday, and this team is going to get better and better under Pellegrini. Dzeko is due to score after missing so many chances in their last match. The Citizens should prevail comfortably in this one.

Tottenham v/s Swansea. Both teams registered easy wins in the Europa League in mid-week. Spurs have home advantage but will definitely not have an easy game against Laudrup's men. It would not be surprising if the visitors caused a minor surprise here. Better to avoid.

Man Utd v/s Chelsea. As mentioned above, it might be worth chancing a draw here if one has to punt.


Win: Everton, Southampton, Stoke, Man City
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Arsenal, Norwich.

Juddmonte International - Al Kazeem needs to overcome Toronado

There are only 2 names to remember for Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; Al Kazeem and Toronado. I cannot see any of the other contenders preventing one of these 2 landing the main prize.
AK will be aiming for a 4th successive Group 1 win. It is amazing that the 5-year old son of Dubawi was not even a Group 1 winner until this year, although there was little doubt that he was high-class. The vibes from connections are very positive and the fact that he's coming in after 46 days of rest should have him optimally fit. I cannot see him out of the first 2.

Toronado will be the one to play spoilers. Officially the best miler in Europe on ratings, he will be adventuring at the 10 furlong distance for the first time. Being by High Chaparral, there is every chance that he has the distance in him. The way he won the Sussex Stakes leaves room for confidence that the distance is within his cords. But it is also true that trainer Richard Hannon's main successes have mostly been with races up to a mile. So that leaves a big question mark as to how well prepared or trained has Toronado been for a mile and a quarter showdown with a top-class and battle-tested horse like AK. On the positive side, he will be in receipt of 7 pounds from AK, so that could aid his cause in making the difference.

I strongly think those 2 will share the first 2 spots. I have a slight preference for AK for the win but won't be surprised if Toronado just edged the battle in a photo. At current odds, both look good Place values as well.

Win: Al Kazeem
Place: Al Kazeem, Toronado

EPL Week 1

My takes on the first week-end of this new EPL season.

Arsenal v/s Aston Villa. Although they will be without Arteta and possibly Walcott, I cannot see Arsenal losing their opener at the Emirates. They should be able to edge this encounter and use it as a confidence builder.

Liverpool v/s Stoke. This is a new era for Stokes under Mark Hughes. It remains to be seen whether keeping clean sheets remains a reference for the Potters. Liverpool will be without Suarez to suspension and will rely on a minorly-crocked Sturridge for ammunition. It will be more a matter of watch and learn on this one but if one really needs a punt, a Liverpool win looks the likelier outcome.

Norwich v/s Everton. This looks to be one of the most even games of the week-end and it would be no surprise if this ended into a draw.

Sunderland v/s Fulham. Same as above. Draw prediction.

Swansea v/s Man Utd. Last year's fixture ended in a draw, although the Red Devils should have won the game in a canter. It's going to be tougher for them this year. At current odds, I am inclined to go with Swansea with a +1 goal advantage so that it would take Man Utd to win by 2 goals for the proposition to fail. I just cannot see Laudrup's team going down by that many goals at home.

West Brom v/s Southampton. Staying on the sidelines on this one as it's hard to assess how the Baggies will do without Lukaku although they now have Anelka in their ranks. Southampton are nursing a few major injuries, so it remains to be seen in what kind of disposition their current team is compared to last year.

West Ham v/s Cardiff. This match can go either way. To avoid.

Chelsea v/s Hull. It would be mad to go anywhere against Chelsea here. Straight win, and it should be a big one too, for the hosts.

Crystal Palace v/s Tottenham. Although most of the summer news about Spurs has been about the departure of Bale, they are still a strong squad. They should have too much firepower for the hosts and should start the season on a winning note.

Man City v/s Newcastle. Straight win for the Citizens.

Win: Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Man City
+1 Handicap: Swansea.

Premier League 2014 - Battle of the Blues

Back from a good holiday break. Just in time for the new EPL season.

This new Premier League season is as intriguing as it's ever been. The best 3 teams in the country, Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea will start with new managers. That means that many of the assumptions regarding those teams in the past years can be thrown out of the window. The Mancunians will be the most heavily hit as they cannot rely on the massive Ferguson factor. After last year's debacle in Madrid, Mourinho will look for redemption at Chelsea and it remains to be seen if he can guide the Blues back to glory in conditions that look quite different to the ones he enjoyed in his first stint. Man City are still beefing up and they will look up to Pellegrini's management skills to bring success where ex-manager Mancini failed.

Although it might seem too early to have any certainty, I am very inclined to take a couple of positions. First, the winner will be out of these 3 teams mentioned above. I cannot see Arsenal, Tottenham or Liverpool or any other big club contending for the main prize. Arsenal will probably do better than last season, but as usual will find it unable to sustain any kind of serious challenge. They will falter at some point, as they've always been doing in the past few years. Tottenham does not have a big enough squad to go all the way through. Worse, they might lose the league's best player, in Gareth Bale. With or without the Welsh superstar, they cannot be considered a serious title contender. Liverpool also face losing their best player in Suarez. Even with him, I cannot see them in the first 4.

My second certainty is that Man Utd will not repeat as champions. I've talked about the loss of the Ferguson factor above and before. There are many other reasons. While he might be talented, new manager Moyes will need a period of adaptation. The pre-season friendlies have been hardly encouraging as they results have been far from convincing. The Red Devils have a tough schedule start. Games against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool in the first weeks can destroy the chances of the team early, and can make it particularly tough for a new manager needing time to adapt. Then, there's the Rooney factor. Should Van Persie be missing from injury and Rooney not available, this Man Utd team will be reeling against tough opposition. Finally, their failure to secure a playmaker like Fabregas at this stage means that the team still needs improvement in midfield. Although things can change with new reinforcements, I think Man Utd fans will be right not to have too high hopes for this year. Don't get me wrong, Utd are still a force to reckon with as they have a strong squad and a certain Robin Van Persie, but there is more downside to them than the likes of Chelsea and Man City this year. Laying the Red Devils before the season starts because their tough start to the season means that they look set to drop points very early.

Yes, I think it will be a battle of the blue shirts for the title. It's a toss-up between Chelsea and Man City. On paper, City's squad is better balanced. They lost Tevez but the incomings of Fernandinho, Jovetic, Navas and Negredo will add to an already-explosive offence. But their best new asset might be new manager Pellegrini. A very successful manager in La Liga, if the Chilean can manage the egos of his star-studded squad and re-energize the old guard from the debacle of Mancini's days, Man City will have a great shout to the tile.

Chelsea will be counting on Mourinho to bring back success. If Man City were only a fictitious team, then there's no doubt that Chelsea would have been a shoo-in for the title. Under the Portuguese, they will do close to full points at Stamford Bridge. It remains to be seen how well they do on their travels. It might be worth comparing the quality of the current Chelsea squad to the one Mourinho had during this title winning years. There will be no more Drogba and the likes of Terry and Lampard will have aged for the worse. But Mata, Oscar and Hazard bring first-class offence to the team. I think if Man City were to fail for any reason, Chelsea will be ready to pick up the pieces.

So, that's my point of view; Man City and Chelsea will duke it out. It will be interesting to watch for any mental battles between Mourinho and Pellegrini. Mou already started the confrontation when he replaced the Chilean at Real Madrid. In his customary ways, he will certainly pepper things up when things are not going as planned. I cannot see Man Utd repeat as champions. Enjoy the season!


Win Title: Chelsea/Man City
Lay: Man Utd

Irish Oaks 2013 - Crowning achievement for Riposte?

What a cracking edition of the Irish Oaks this year with all of the 8 contenders having a proper shot on paper. It's too bad Ralph Beckett's Secret Gesture could not make the trip as she would have been one of the main contenders to land the prize.

The initial process of elimination is a tough one but I'm inclined to discard all three representatives from the Ballydoyle camp in Just Pretending, Magical Dream and Venus de Milo. I think they are a touch below the rest of the field and certainly not at the level of some of their illustrious predecessors like Alexandrova and Peeping Fawn. I will also take Scintillula out from the Bolger yard out of the contenders' list as she has yet to prove herself at that level. This leaves Alive Alive Oh, Chicquita, Riposte and Talent.

Alive Alive Oh could be anything of a filly, having won her 2 races, out of 3 outings, in a canter. Her races have all been on give in the ground and the main question about her is how she will act on the Curragh's firm ground. There is a good possibility that being by Duke of Marmalade that she should relish fast ground but she will have to confirm on that to have a decent crack on Saturday.

Chicquita is the French raider from the Royer Dupre stable. She closed very well in the Prix Diane as runner-up to Treve and the 12 furlong distance will suit her to bits. After all she's a Montjeu. She has shown quirkiness, flashing her tail and has a tendency to hang when asked to deliver. If Johnny Murtagh can steer her right, she could play a role at the finish.

Riposte is this year's outstanding Ribblesdale winner and is a close relative of Frankel. She definitely has stardom in the genes. She's proven at the distance and on the fast ground. She should be well rested from her last Royal Ascot outing and ready to fire. She should be in the first 3.

Talent surprised even her trainer Beckett by beating stablemate Secret Gesture in this year's Oaks. Although it's unclear as to the exact quality of the Oaks form, she's clearly from the top drawer having won 3 out of her 4 races. She will have no issues on the fast ground, and will rely mainly on the fast pace to unleash her turn of foot. Unless she gets stuck in traffic, she should be among the finishers as well.

Riposte is definitely on the up and the race seems to come at the right time for her. The field looks very level, so going each-way on the daughter of Dansili is the preferred selection. This looks to be a very hotly-contested race, unless a real superstar emerges from the pack.

Each-way: Riposte

Marengo and Ocovango battle for Paris

For many purists, the Grand Prix de Paris is the unofficial French Derby that pits the best 3 year-olds at the 12 furlong Classic distance. The claim that the official holder of the title, the Prix du Jockey-Club, favours more milers than stamina players at its shortened 11 furlong distance, seems to hold much water with every passing year.

At the forefront of this year's edition are Ocovango and Battle of Marengo, two colts that lost their unbeaten records at the Epsom Classic without demerit. Both look to be evenly-matched from the outcome and the winner will very possibly from one of the two. I believe that fitness will be the deciding factor. BOM had another racecourse outing at Royal Ascot running a creditable second to Hillstar in the King Edward VII Stakes. Saturday's race might be coming too soon for the son of Galileo. On the other hand, Ocovango makes his comeback from his English raid having enjoyed more than 6 weeks of rest. That definitely gives him the upper hand in terms of recovery. Trainer Andre Fabre is a renowned master for getting his 3-year olds primed for the big targeted races and for a person of a few words, is looking very confident on his colt's chances.

The selection is to go with Ocovango over BOM in any match-bet and for the Win as well.


Win: Ocovango
Match-bet: Ocovango

Coral Eclipse - The Fugue can test Al Kazeem

Saturday's Coral Eclipse is an opportunity for Al Kazeem to confirm his Royal Ascot win and proclaim himself the best middle-distance horse in England. The main question is whether he can bag his third Group 1 win in a row in a short span of 6 weeks. He is clearly the best-rated horse in the race and if he is 100% fit, there is no doubt in my mind that the rest are running for the places.

I think the market has it right and the winner will come out of these; Al Kazeem, Declaration of War and The Fugue. Mukhadram had AK dig deep at Ascot but my feeling is that the margin between the two will only enlarge given the same amount of days rest. Mars is an interesting contender but being a 3-year old and lightly-raced, I believe his lack of experience will be detrimental on the day. Pastorius is coming back from a disappointing raid in Singapore and there are question marks as to how well he's recuperated from his trip. On his best form, he can be a danger in a Group 1, but I feel that this race might be coming a little too soon for him after his Far East venture.

DOW bounced back fantastically in landing the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot after flopping badly in the Lockinge. The dilemma is knowing what condition Aidan O'Brien has him now; is he under-cooked, over-cooked or spot on? That's the problem with the Ballydoyle genius trainer, he can get them spot on or he can wreck them big time (I won't go over the So You Think episodes again). Although he's won at the distance and further, I still think that he would be better suited and more dangerous at the mile. He cannot be discarded though particularly if AK and The Fugue don't run their race.

The Fugue ran a cracking third in the Prince of Wales after a long layoff. She stayed on very well and there is no doubt that she will go into the Eclipse in far better shape. 11 furlongs is possibly her best trip. She will absolutely love the fast ground conditions at Sandown. I think there will be less than the 3.5 lengths separation at Ascot between her and AK this time. In my cards, she's the second favourite of the race.

AK has proven to be top-class and I believe only a short time of recuperation from his last run can stop him on Saturday. On level terms and adequate rest, he would dominate this field. The Fugue is on the ascendancy and will pounce on any weakness from AK. At current odds, the latter looks very short, while The Fugue looks good each-way value. That is my selection.

Each-way: The Fugue

Irish Derby 2013 - Ruler to convince the world

Although he won the Epsom Derby quite convincingly, Ruler of the World still has doubters about whether he is the real deal and is indeed the creme de la creme of the Classic division. He will have the opportunity to put the question to bed in Saturday's Irish Derby.

Some would say that Battle of Marengo was unleashed too soon at Epsom which ruined his chances at the finish. The way that ROTW stormed by in the closing stages seems to indicate that he still had the race in control had the sprint to the finish line started later than actual. The fact that ROTW is still undefeated in 3 races and looks a progressive type means that he is the deserved favourite for the Curragh Classic. At evens, he might be a little short, but he definitely should be in the first 3, albeit without regular partner Ryan Moore in the saddle.

I believe the main challenge will come from Libertarian, Sugar Boy or Trading Leather. Derby runner-up Libertarian looked a very good closer at Epsom which looked to indicate that the St Leger might be up his alley. He will certainly appreciate the less-undulating Curragh track and cannot be dismissed in any trifecta.

There is a slight question mark on Trading Leather at a mile and a half distance. He's produced high-class races at a mile and ten furlongs this year and he might have too much speed for the Classic distance. He's from the top drawer though and very possibly the best 3-year old in Jim Bolger's care after Dawn Approach. If he gets the distance, he represents a good value each-way chance.

Sugar Boy beat Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial at ten furlongs. He's been either in first or second places in his last 6 races, and has made the frame in all 8 of his outings. He will relish the distance. It remains to be seen how to interpret his 64 day absence from the tracks; will he be too fresh or just fresh enough to run down quite a few opponents that might still not fully recovered from the Epsom race?

I think that if ROTW runs his race, he should win. For the placings, I see value in both Sugar Boy and Trading Leather. One stands not to lose if at least one of them makes it in the first 3.

Win: Ruler of the World
Place: Trading Leather/Sugar Boy 

Royal Ascot - Day 2 Prince of Wales' Stakes

I can think of only 5 names to retain in Wednesday's feature race, the Prince of Wales' Stakes at 10 furlongs; Al Kazeem, Camelot, The Fugue and the 2 French raiders Maxios and Saint Baudolino. I believe the winner should come out of that lot.

Al Kazeem is the favourite of the race and if he has retained the form that saw him beat Camelot last time, I think he will be a big player. He's only been outside of the placings once in 10 outings, and that happened on his racing debut and on soft ground. He will be getting his preferred good ground on Tuesday and the way he mastered Camelot at the Curragh a few weeks ago shows his mettle as a genuine Group 1 runner and one of the best middle-distance horses around.

Camelot disappointed when beaten to Al Kazeem and it remains to be seen if he's still the same horse after his surgery during the winter. I still believe that his best distance is 12 furlongs, being a son of Montjeu. It's hard to see him reverse the form against Roger Charlton's colt.

I rate The Fugue as a top filly but I have doubts of her winning on Wednesday after more than 200 days of layoff. Her stablemate Elusive Kate floundered in the latter parts of the Queen Anne Stakes after a similar lengthy spell on the sidelines, possibly due to a lack of fitness. There isn't much confidence in backing her with the lack of a prep run.

Maxios has been a revelation in France this year having notched 2 wins and a second place out of 3 top races. It seems that trainer Jonathan's Pease has found the solution to the 5-year old half-brother of Bago after a rather start-stop career to date. Maxios needs plenty of rain to be at his most effective but it does not seem that there will be plenty or any of that in the weather forecasts. He's got to be considered if it starts pouring on the day.

Saint Baudolino can never be counted out as the son of Pivotal is blessed with a smart turn of foot that can help him make the difference against this field on his best day. This lightly raced colt is the dark horse of the race as he's very unexposed. It remains to be seen how his transfer from Fabre to Godolphin has panned out because many of similar transfers have ended up in rather catastrophic fashion. It would not be surprising if the mount of Barzalona snatched up a place.

All roads seem to be going back to Al Kazeem in this one. He almost never runs a bad race and if he is true to form, he should be very close at the finish. I cannot see him out of the first 3, and he looks a good value Win selection.

Win: Al Kazeem

Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 1

Animal Kingdom towers above the field in the opening race Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot. If he is anywhere near his true form and has no problem adapting to the undulations of the track, there is really nothing in the field that can beat him. Signs from connections have been positive throughout his preparations so it looks like he will be tough to beat. Should he fail to fire, I see Elusive Kate and Trade Storm as his nearest pursuers. The former runs very well fresh and has had good form in Group 1 races last year. Trade Storm has been a revelation in Dubai and if he gets the firm ground that he relishes, he has strong claims to be in the placings. Animal Kingdom is short-priced but he should win.

The King's Stand Stakes is an intriguing contest with Shea Shea, the Mike de Kock representative, being another short-priced favourite. This is a big field of 19 runners, so it won't be a surprise if he's turned over. The Aussies have a great record in the race and will be represented by Shamexpress, who although does not seem to have the star power or reputation of Choisir, Takeover Target and Miss Andretti, should be be respected. I think Reckless Abandon represents tremendous value in this race. The son of Exchange rate lost  his unbeaten tag on this seasonal return this year when a good third to Kingsgate Native in the Betfred Temple Stakes a few weeks ago. This race will have brought him on nicely and he's shown very good speed in all his races to suggest that he can be one of the premier sprinters in the country if kept at the 5-6 furlong distance. I see value in having him in the placings.

Finally, the St James Palace stakes looks set to be a dandy. The rather shocking return of Dawn Approach has turned the race upside down. If he's truly recovered from the disastrous Derby and is still the horse that won the Guineas, then he must have a live chance to win. Magician is a top-drawer horse in his own right and his backers will be eager to see if the setback in his preparation will have any effect on race day. Despite his Guineas flop, Toronado is still highly regarded in the Richard Hannon camp. I think we can throw away that race. He showed great speed and the way he floundered in the end definitely meant that something had bothered him. Very possibly his newly-fitted spoon-bit might be the solution to the issue. The vibes from the connections are most positive and I think there is a great chance that he will run to his full potential. I think he's the value Place punt of the race.

Win: Animal Kingdom
Place: Reckless Abandon, Toronado

US Open - Tiger can end drought

Sad news in racing yesterday with the passing of Sir Henry Cecil, without any doubt,one of the greatest trainers in the history of Flat racing. I got the bug of racing following the likes of Oh So Sharp, the Triple Crown winner which he masterfully trained like so many other champions over the years. The Frankel story might not be as unblemished and memorably told today had it been in the hands of another trainer. A genius of a horseman he was. RIP Sir Henry.

The US Open golf gets underway tomorrow and looks a tricky affair as the conditions prevailing are far from optimal. The latest downpour looks set to make the course slow and soggy. I think this sets Tiger Woods pretty well here. It is hard to believe that Tiger hasn't won a Major tournament for the past 5 years. He's definitely come close of late and although he had a stinker tournament last week, his game is definitely back. I believe he just needs that ounce of luck to win a big one again and that would open the floodgates for many more Major glories. He's won the US Open in these kinds of conditions before and even had a practice round at this year's venue in the rain. Looking at the odds on the exchanges, his even odds for a Top 10 look appealing. He might not win but I definitely think he should be in the whereabouts on Sunday.

Top 10: Tiger Woods

C's and T's: Dawn Approach's challenge

New Approach made his mark as a serious Classic sire today after Talent's surprising victory in the Oaks. The question is whether he can make it a bis repetita celebration when his son Dawn Approach guns for Derby victory as a heavy favourite.

It seems to be a unanimous feeling that if Dawn Approach gets the 12-furlong distance, he will win. Based on form, there is not much in the race that comes close to Godolphin's representative. The answer to his stamina concerns lies in a momentous discovery in thoroughbred racing central of which is no other than his trainer Jim Bolger himself. It is his company that made the breakthrough that racehorses can be empirically categorized as pure sprinters, stayers and a mixture of both based on samplings of their DNA. To simplify a long story, if C stands for a sprinter-type and T for a stayer-type, then a CC-horse is bound to be primarily a short-distance specialist having received the C genes from both the dam and sire. On the same note, a TT-type horse will be more apt for stamina-challenging races. CT or TC-type horses can turn out to be in either part of the spectrum; they can become great sprinters, milers or stayers.

If Jim Bolger did not have Dawn Approach in the Derby preliminary entries, it is for the simple reason that he had empirical evidence that the colt is a CC-type horse, i.e, a sprinting type not suited for the Derby distance. The story goes that it is the colt's other owner, Godolphin's Sheikh Mohammed that decided to go for the Classic.

Given the above, it is clear that for Dawn Approach to win the Derby, 2 things must happen. First, he must have the class that will carry him through the distance. He will need to find every bit of it in the last furlong to the post, where many other champions (Dubai Millenium is the prime example) have floundered. The manner of all his wins lead me to think that Dawn Approach has that amount of required class. Second, much depends on the quality of his opponents. From what most of them have shown, their forms are very exposed. Battle of Marengo was workmanlike in the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Although unbeaten in 3 races, Ocovango is no Pour Moi although many pundits try to find similarities. Ocovango looks more like a galloper and lacks the burst of acceleration of the Derby winner. He can be in the thereabouts but at current odds, I think he's a great one to lay. The winner could come out of the rest of the pack with the likes of Mars, Ruler of the World or the unbeaten Chopin, but none of them would be a confident pick. It seems that whichever acts more on the Epsom undulations will have a chance of usurping the favourite.

My confident selection is Dawn Approach to be in the first 3. If he takes to the distance, he could rout this field. If not, there might be a dark horse among the rest waiting to bask in Epsom's glory. I don't think it will be Battle of Marengo or Ocovango, so they would be my lays of the race.

Place: Dawn Approach

Lay: Battle of Marengo, Ocovango

Moth to fly in Oaks

In what seems to be a common pattern in today's racing, Friday's Oaks seems to be a battle between Galileo's fillies; Secret Gesture is the one with the market support after her awesome demonstration in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Moth is the other serious contender representing the Ballydoyle contingent. Galileo's sons and daughters really look set to rule the Classics to come for the foreseeable future.

It is true that the form of the Oaks Trial can be deemed suspect. The runner-up Miss You Too runs in Friday's Classic as well and is the long-shot of the field at over 100/1. That means to say that there is the real possibility that the visually impressive 10-length demolition of Secret Gesture in that race should be taken at face value and might not be the best form on show for the race. There is no doubt Ralph Beckett's filly is high-class but she will find the Classic race a much more competitive affair.

I really like the way Moth closed up the 1000 Guineas in finishing third. She finished best of the field and there is no doubt that the 12 furlong distance will be right up her alley. Her fans will have been delighted that she's the stable jockey's pick. She must have a big chance particularly if Secret Gesture's Oaks Trial form is exposed on the day.

Of the rest, I think Liber Nauticus will miss some seasoning for the race. She's undefeated in 2 races but I believe the Oaks comes too early for her. She's definitely over-priced in my books.

I can easily see Moth in the first three. She looks a safe and value Place punt at current odds.

Place: Moth

Choker tag on the line

The UCL final at Wembley is the main event of the week-end, pitting the 2 German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. On paper and based on form, Bayern looks difficult to beat and is the overwhelming favourite. But looks are very deceiving. For those that think that the Munich team will win it easily, consider this; Bayern have not beaten Dortmund in a league game for the past couple of years. They have lost more UCL finals than they've won. They lost when to Porto in 1987 when practically no-one thought the Portuguese had the slightest chance. Last year, they lost the final to Chelsea when playing at their vaunted Allianz Arena. They also lost to Man Utd during the Red Devils' Triple Crown coronation in 1999, and again to Mourinho's Inter Milan in the 2010 Final. In comparison, Dortmund's sole UCL final appearance and victory came as a massive under-dog against Juventus in 1997.

So, the word "choker" springs to mind when The Bavarians get to the final. But that's not to say that this year  might not be different; Bayern really look overwhelmingly strong this year. They crushed the Bundesliga early and annihilated Barcelona on their way to Wembley. This is a team that is really on the ascendancy and will be peaking in the coming years, provided upcoming coach Guardiola does not wreck them.

Against them is a strong Dortmund team that has the belief that this Cup is theirs for the taking. They were nearly dead and buried against Malaga, yet conjured up 2 goals in injury-time to make it through. They were not supposed to overcome mighty Real Madrid, yet they outplayed and outscored them. On its best day, this team can beat anyone, even Bayern. They are led by a maestro motivator in manager Klopp. They have world-class players like Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze that can open up any defence. But here's one thing; Gotze will miss the final due to a hamstring injury. That's a massive blow for Dortmund. He's their playmaker and although he's Bayern-bound next year, he would have been a real threat for the men in yellow.

The pressure will definitely be more on Bayern. They have to score first and preferably early to settle their nerves. Their ability to impose their game will be instrumental. They have beaten their opponents in the German Cup this season which will have given them belief that they can win the game in 90 minutes. Dortmund will most probably sit back and rely on their deadly counter-attack. Anything can happen in a final; the team that makes of the most of its chances will win. There's no certainty here; but I think that with some luck, Bayern is ready to dispel the myths and confirm the current thinking that they are indeed the best in Europe. Whether in full or injury-time, or on penalties, my feeling is that the Bavarians will prevail.

Changing Landscape

This end of football season in the European leagues looks set to be the watershed to the impending massive changes to bestow upon them next year. With the great SAF retiring, Man Utd will be under a new manager after 27 years. But the winds of change have affected many other European powerhouses as well; in England, Chelsea looks set for the second coming of Mourinho and Pellegrini has apparently been given the reins at Man City. The best 3 teams in England will be under new leaders. In Italy, Milan is on the verge of getting rid of Allegri after a so-so first season. Inter are on the look-out for a new coach as well. In Spain, the much-maligned Mourinho has finally been booted out of Madrid, to the delight of Spanish fans in general. Malaga will also look for a new manager after the departure of Pellegrini. In Germany, Guardiola is taking over the powerful Bayern Munich. Finally, so far, in France, PSG are looking to replace want-away Ancelotti for whom Real Madrid came calling.

We are talking here of 8 big teams that played in this year's Champions League. This is bound to affect not only their domestic leagues but next year's dynamics in the UCL as well. It is too early to say whether teams like Barcelona will have the advantage of continuity with them. After all, much of it will depend on player personnel as well. Rooney looks to be out of Man Utd, Dortmund will be losing some key players, Real Madrid is already working on their list of surplus to requirements. And probably more importantly, Neymar will make his European debut, quite possibly under a Barcelona shirt.

English football itself is moving into a new era with the retirement of Scholes, Beckham and Owen. While their careers were already on the wane for the past few years, there is no doubt that their names are etched forever in England folklore for their contributions to the game. They were some of the finest to ever don a Lions shirt and have made their indelible mark.

The carousel round of managers and players will make for a hectic transfer summer season . A new dawn of football will start in August. The retired ones will be missed but football will hold its intrigue more than ever.