EPL Week 16

Back after a short early break, the mind definitely freshened-up and ready to tackle the rumble and tumble of festive December football.

Man City v/s Arsenal. This is a 6-pointer, no doubt, with the 2 main contenders for the title according to the bookies. City are a formidable fortress at home but if there is team that can breach them, it is the Gunners. The mid-week away win at Bayern Munich could be the turning point of the Citizens' season because there is no doubt that it will have given them a huge confidence boost with the know-how that they went to beat the best team in the world at the moment. They have been stuttering in their EPL away games but a win in Munich can eliminate the mental barriers. On the other hand, Arsenal lost at Napoli in the UCL but still secured qualification. My concern is not the defeat in itself but rather the exertions they had to put in the game, especially having had to play with 10 men with the sending off of Arteta. So from a fitness point of view, the advantage is clearly with Man City and that tips the balance for me to the hosts. I see a draw-no-bet on the hosts as a safe and value selection.

Chelsea v/s Crystal Palace. Not sure which type of Chelsea team will show up on the day but I cannot see Mourinho's unbeaten home record being wrecked by the Eagles. The Blues should win this to keep their title hopes live.

Everton v/s Fulham. This should end in a home win. The Toffees have been impressive in winning at Old Trafford and securing a draw at Arsenal. This is a team growing in confidence under a good manager in Martinez. Fulham won last week but they can expect an entirely different proposition at Goodison Park. Everton is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Man Utd. The bad news keep on piling for Man Utd as RVP will be missing a month because of a thigh injury. If they did not have Rooney in front, they would be in a worse situation than they are. They should however, have too much quality for the Villains who struggle to come up with good consistent performances week-in, week-out. Benteke is a non-factor at the moment. The selection is Man Utd as a draw-no-bet.

Tottenham v/s Liverpool. Spurs seem to be righting the ship after their calamitous 6-goal drubbing at the Etihaad a few weeks ago. Soldado scored a hat-trick in the Europa on Thursday and this could be the match he needed to finally start scoring on a regular basis. Liverpool have been rocked this week of the absence of Gerrard for more than a month. This is bad news for the Kops who are already missing striker Sturridge. That leaves Suarez as the only plausible man apt to score in this team. December could be a make or break month for Rodgers and his team. I see value going with Spurs as a draw-no-bet here.

Win: Everton, Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham

EPL Week 14

My thoughts on some of the mid-week matches.

Arsenal v/s Hull. The visitors proved me wrong by beating Liverpool over the week-end. I don't think they will have another giant kill in the space of 4 days. Ozil seems to have waken up from his slight slumber in the last game and Ramsey is just unplayable at the moment. Should be a Gunners win.

Liverpool v/s Norwich. Whether it was a blip or it was a team badly missing Sturridge, but Liverpool were poor against Hull in their last match. To continue their UCL aspirations for a Top 4, they need to get maximum points against teams like Norwich. I think they will if Suarez can show he is as dangerous up-front without strike partner Sturridge. Should be worth going straight for the Kop win here.

Man Utd v/s Everton. Interesting match-up that pits Moyes against his old team. The Toffees are actually doing very well under Martinez and although they are going to miss Leighton Baines for a while, they are still a strong team to overcome without the England left-back. The Red Devils are on a good un-beaten run although they have dropped 4 crucial points in their last 2 games. I cannot see them lose this game and all indications are that they should win this in the end. Probably safest to go draw-no-bet with the hosts.

Southampton v/s Villa. The Saints will be missing goalkeeper Boruc for quite a while due to a broken hand. Their home record is pretty daunting and I expect them to overcome a Villa team that is average at best when Benteke is not scoring. At current odds, the hosts look good value as a win.

Swansea v/s Newcastle. The Magpies are running high and are in a surprise 6th position. I think the buck stops for them at Swansea this week. Although the Swans will be without Michu and Bony, they are still a quality side that can present challenges to any team  on their playground. I see Swansea as a strong draw-no-bet at current odds.

Fulham v/s Tottenham. I see a visitor win or draw here. New Fulham manager Meulensteen has proved a top coach at Man Utd but managing a team is an entirely different story. The side is poor and this is a good opportunity for Spurs to get back in the win column after some poor form of late. Their 2-2 draw against Man Utd will have brought back some good level of confidence to the side and I see them as a value draw-no-bet as well.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Swansea, Tottenham

EPL Week 13

It will not be surprising to see some of the leading teams lose points again this week-end, but I think that the results on overall, will be favourable to the big teams.

Aston Villa v/s Sunderland. I see a Villa win here although they are not the best team to have complete faith with. Benteke is just disappointing at the moment and the team needs him to start firing if they are to compete for the upper half of the table. Sunderland are just awful and are destined for a relegation scrap until the end. I see home comforts for the Villains, and a straight Win looks good value.

Hull v/s Liverpool. That should be 3 full points for the Kops and another bag of goals for the SAS strikeforce.

Chelsea v/s Southampton. The Saints can play spoilers here and Chelsea have a game on their hands. This match could go any result, so there is no certainty there.

Man City v/s Swansea. City are almost unbeatable at home and I cannot see a Swansea team that was in action and beaten in the Europa League in mid-week playing an upset. The Citizens should win this.

Everton v/s Stoke. I like the hosts as draw-no-bet here although they will be missing Baines. It will not be surprising to see the Potters steal a point but it looks far-fetched to see them get all three.

Norwich v/s Crystal Palace. I cannot see the Eagles getting 2 away wins in a row. Norwich have a good record at home and will be looking to maximize points at Carrow Road to offset their poor road record. Norwich is selected as a straight win.

Tottenham v/s Man Utd. It is staggering to see that Spurs have a -3 goal difference at this stage, thanks to their 0-6 drubbing against Man City last week. They are clearly a club in crisis and the pressure is on AVB to right the ship asap. On the other hand, the Red Devils are in ascending form and their mid-week demolition of Leverkusen in the UCL will have given the team huge confidence. I see it safe to have Man Utd as a draw-no-bet, but the value is to go for the outright Win with them.

Win: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Everton

EPL preview

Back from the bore of international breaks and to the resumption of an ever exciting EPL. Some thoughts on some of the matches:

Everton v/s Liverpool. The Merseyside Derby looks to produce fireworks and it would not be surprising if it ended up in a draw. The Toffees are enjoying a good spell under Martinez and will certainly have the benefit of home advantage. Liverpool will be relying on Suarez as usual and the fact that he has been rushed from international duty from the Southern Hemisphere is a concern regarding mental and physical sharpness for such an explosive game. The value is to have Everton as a draw-no-bet, in my opinion.

Arsenal v/s Southampton. The hosts will be all too aware that the Saints cannot be underestimated at any cost. Southampton have garnered points at Anfield and Old Trafford and can foil the best teams in the league. The Gunners will again count on the explosive duo of Ozil and Ramsey to make the difference. They will also benefit from the return of Walcott on the flanks. I think the Gunners will definitely get something out of the game and a confident draw-no-bet proposition as well.

Fulham v/s Swansea. The home side has been the major disappointment of the campaign so far. It remains to be seen whether the arrival of ex-coach Muelensteen will make the desired impact. Swansea have shown disappointing form of late and will be keen to end a run of 3 EPL games without a win. At current odds and with some element of risk, the visitors look good value as draw-no-bet.

Hull v/s Crystal Palace. Hull needs to get maximum points out of encounters of this sort if they are to survive relegation. They look for draws on their away travels but at home they will not get easier opponents than the manager-less Eagles. It might be close, but in the end, I see the Tigers getting full points. They are a Win selection.

Stoke v/s Sunderland. If ever there is a game that is to go goal-less or draw during the week-end, it's this one. If there is to be a winner, it could be any of them. To avoid or to play it as a draw.

Cardiff v/s Man Utd. Cardiff has scraped through a couple of wins at home thanks to goals from set-pieces. The Red Devils will have to ensure they disable the threats of dead ball situations to get away with 3 valuable points here. They must if they are to keep in touch with the league leaders and confirm the renaissance of the last couple of weeks. Rooney and RVP are in great form and although they might be a little short in central midfield, the Red Devils should have too much fire-power for the Welsh outfit. The visitors are a Win selection.

Win: Man Utd, Hull
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Everton

My views on some EPL games this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Cardiff. Finally a game that the Villains have a chance to get a few points and I expect Benteke to have a big game here. He's got near-misses in his previous matches but quality should prevail here. I see a Villa win with Benteke on the score-sheet.

Chelsea v/s WBA. It's Mourinho against his former No 2 Clarke. Got to go with Chelsea because they are so far invicible at home in the EPL with the Portuguese. WBA will go look for a point, so might be worth making it safe through a draw-no-bet.

Liverpool v/s Fulham. The visitors are woeful and their manager is under pressure of getting fired any time. I cannot see them win this. The S & S strikefore of Suarez and Sturridge will be certainly be hoping to enhance their goalscoring records. This should end in a Liverpool win.

Southampton v/s Hull. The Tigers are beset by injury problems at the moment but they are a well-organized unit that can make it hard for any team to break down. Southampton are on a good run and should make it 3 points, although an upset from the visitors should not be ruled out if they are taken too lightly by the hosts. Better go the safe route and go for a draw-no-bet with the Saints.

Swansea v/s Stoke. The hosts seem to be in a rut of form of late but I expect them to get back to winning ways as they welcome Stoke. At current odds, Swansea look good value for the win.

Man Utd v/s Arsenal. That's the big game of the week-end. Ramsey is just being amazing for the Gunners. I can't recall a midfielder being in such goal-scoring form for the Gunners; he's just a goal scoring machine at the moment. He could still score against the Devils but I don't think Arsenal will win this match. I see the hosts being pumped up and will be working their sleeves up so as not to concede a fourth defeat in the League. Moyes has a quite good record against Arsenal in his Evertonian days and knows the style required to foil the Gunners. The selection is for a draw-no-bet with Man Utd and a lay of Arsenal.


Win: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Swansea
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Southampton, Man Utd
Lay: Arsenal
To Score: Benteke

Breeders Cup 2013: 5 horses to follow

Although they've lost their lustre for the past few years, the Breeders Cup championship is still a great spectacle that regroups quality horses from Europe and the best that the USA can offer. Here are 5 horses it might be of benefit to follow.

#1 Wise Dan. Last year's horse of the year still looks formidable in the Turf Mile despite having lost his last race. It certainly looks as if this year's race is of lesser quality than last year's and Wise Dan looks a value selection at even odds. I can't see the main European runner Olympic Glory being a real danger as the bends of Santa Anita and the fast ground will be to his disadvantage. Wise Dan for the Win.

#2 The Fugue. Europe's best middle-distance filly should be very difficult to beat in the Turf. She was unlucky to meet traffic trouble last year and if she gets a free trip, she will certainly be in the whereabouts. She will relish the fast ground and with the connections being very bullish, she is a Win selection as well.

#3 Bobby's Kitten. This is the best "kitten" he's got,  in owner Ramsey's own words. The colorful owner obviously has had other smart kittens from his stallion Kitten's Joy and since this one is supposed to be the best of the lot, he's got to be considered. He won his last race impressively over 6 lengths and looks ready to fire another top performance. The European contingent is headed by Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini but I have a feeling that Bobby's Kitten has home advantage here. He looks good value for the Win.

#4 Romantica. Dank is the obvious big favourite given her dominating win at Arlington a few weeks back. But I rate Romantica from the Andre Fabre stable to be good enough to aspire for a top 3 spot here. The daughter of Banks Hills, herself a winner at the BC championships, will relish the fast ground, something that she has not always been getting in France. Fabre rarely makes the travel unless he sees a big opportunity and I think he's found one in the Filly & Mare Turf. Romantica is a Place selection.

#5 Declaration of War. Ever since Giant's Causeway came agonizingly close to hand Ballydoyle a first win in the Classic, the race they probably aspire the most, many of their superstars have failed on the dirt surface. DOW looks to be their best chance since GC since he's dirt-bred and has the profile to do well, being a strong galloper and the right tactical speed needed for American racing. This could finally be Ballydoyle's year when they bring home the Holy Grail. If he adheres to the surface as I believe he will, I see DOW being a major contender in America's most prestigious race. At current odds, DOW is a value Win selection.

Win: Wise Dan, The Fugue, Bobby's Kitten, Declaration of War
Place: Romantica

Football Preview

A couple of great match-ups dominate the EPL and La Liga this week-end. Chelsea and Man City, the 2 front-runners for the Premier League, at least from the bookies standpoint, clash at Stamford Bridge, while the El Clasico is the un-missable feature in Spain. Here are some picks.

Crystal Palace v/s Arsenal. There is no basis to back the Eagles here. They lost manager Halloway during the week and I can't see the caretaker manager making a marked difference to the squad, particularly that other managers are being publicly sought after. Arsenal lost against Dortmund in the Champions League and will be keen to resume their winning ways against lesser opposition. Arsenal is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Everton. I like the hosts' chances here with the possible return of Benteke in the starting eleven. Everton can be deemed lucky to have scraped past Hull last week and they are certainly a work in progress under Martinez. This could very well end up in a draw and I fancy to nick it if there is to be a winner. So, the Villains are a  draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool v/s West Brom. I can't believe Liverpool are near evens to land a top 4 spot and in the 9's to win the league. I say lay on both, because in my mind, they are not good enough to finish in the first 4. Granted, it's still early in the season, but the prices are attractive enough to lay at the moment. WBA's visit is a good occasion for the Kops to land another 3 points although if there is to be a shocking result this week-end, it could be with WBA taking the spoils. I'll avoid this one.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. This should end with a home win to get the Red Devils back on track in the league.

Tottenham v/s Hull. Spurs shouldn't take Hull for easy victims as the visitors are a good disciplined side that is hard to break down. I can't see the Tigers winning this but they will definitely battle to get at least a draw from the match. Spurs look to be safe draw-no-bet selection.

Chelsea v/s Man City. History has it that Mourinho has never lost an EPL game at Stamford Bridge. They are in good form and went to thrash Shalke in Germany during the week. Man City finally won on the road last Saturday but this is going to be one of their toughest visits of the season. This is a 6-pointer game and this game will probably be decided with a moment of genius or inattention from either side. With Mourinho's record, it's hard to go against Chelsea as hosts, so the Blues are a strong draw-no-bet selection at current odds.

Finally, the El Clasico in Spain is an intriguing one with the 2 giant clubs under the helm of new management. There is no doubt that Ancelotti and Martino are still working the kinks of their side and won't have their typical A-team. Neymar is still finding his feet at Barca and Bale is far from showing his real weapons at Madrid. Being the hosts and with the return of Messi, the Catalans hold a slight advantage and look good value with current draw-no-bet odds.

Win: Arsenal, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa

EPL Preview

Back to the grind of the EPL this week-end after the international break.

Newcastle v/s Liverpool. The Kops have a very good record going to Tyneside over the years and with their good start of the season under the belt, they must be high on confidence on Saturday's visit. Sturridge and Suarez arguably form the hottest strikeforce in the country at the moment. Unlike many, I don't think Liverpool are genuine title contenders this season but they can still pose problems to any team. Newcastle are a mid-table team at best and will rely on their French duo of Cabaye and Ben Arfa to create opportunities. At current odds, I like Liverpool's chances of a draw-no-bet.

Arsenal v/s Norwich. A lot of Arsenal's chances for a straight win will depend on Ozil's availability for this match. On current news, he seems to have recuperated from his mid-week injury playing for Germany. He is possibly the classiest midfielder in the league. If Ozil is on the team-sheet, I say go for a Gunners win.

Chelsea v/s Cardiff. That should be a straight win for the hosts.

Everton v/s Hull. Lukaku seems to be like a fish in water at Everton, in sharp contrast to his days at Stamford Bridge. This should end in a home win.

Man Utd v/s Southampton. This is going to be a tough one for the Red Devils. Soton are in awesome form and are no push overs. It will be interesting to see if newly-acclaimed wonder-kid Januzaj can confirm his spectacular debut and impose himself as the long-awaited maestro of the Man Utd midfield. At current odds, I believe the value is to have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Stoke v/s WBA. This promises to be a yawner. Not many goals in store and best to avoid.

Swansea v/s Sunderland. It so often happens that a team wins against the odds under a new manager, as the players give the extra effort to make first impressions to the new boss. I don't think it will happen for Sunderland under Poyet's first match in charge. Swansea are a draw-no-bet selection.

West Ham v/s Man City. I don't believe that Pellegrini has gotten the touch for Man City's visits so far. They've lost twice already on the road. This looks set to be a nail-biter and a draw could be the likely outcome. This could really end up in any result.


Win: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Man Utd, Swansea

Arc de Triomphe 2013 - The Revenge of Orfevre?

Sunday's Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the racing calendar for me and it looks set to be a fascinating renewal with some major contenders on the line. But the main question has to be with Orfevre, the Japanese mega-star and unlucky runner-up of last year's edition. To me, if the "Crazy Horse" is in top form and in the right frame of mind on the day, there will be no race; he has the potential to crush the field, he is that good.

Here are some of my thoughts on the main aspirants to the throne.

Orfevre. Much has been written about his heartbreak loss last year. Trainer Ikee somewhat gave closure to why he threw the race away this week. No, it was not a lack of stamina or a running out of gas as many speculated, since he accelerated and galloped away after the finish line. It was the flawed genius with his antics again. His prep Prix Foy win a few weeks ago looked convincing, allowing for the premise that he has retained his ability and might even be a better horse this year with an enhanced mental. This year, he has an ideal post and the soft ground will be of no detriment, unlike with some others. Unless he has an off-day and fails to fire, I cannot see him out of the first 3. He is head-and-shoulders the best horse in the race.

Treve. Unless she turns out to have Zarkava-like abilities, I cannot put her on a pedestal that many others are inclined to do. She is unbeaten in 4 and has looked dominant in the Prix Diane and Prix Vermeille but I have some reservations on the form book there. Soft ground won't be a problem to her but her very wide draw should be of concern to her backers. Orfevre easily overcame that issue last year but it won't be easy for a 3-year old filly running first time against males. I don't believe the switch of mount from Dettori to Jarnet will make a difference as she's won with the latter on 3 occasions. She is classy and can make the frame, but she's a definite lay in my books for the win.

Novellist. He rose to the top of the European middle-distance division by trouncing the King George in record-time. Then, he labored to win at Baden Baden prompting many questions about his real quality. Again here, my view is somewhat contrarian to most. While I cannot argue that he lowered the time scale by 2 seconds at Ascot, I've got to ask who he beat; Trading Leather, Universal, Hillstar are certainly not genuine Group 1 performers. Jockey Murtagh says he was impressed with the horse at Ascot and though I certainly respect his views on most matters, I've got to wonder whether his view is distorted by the fact that the facile win was against average opposition. At Baden Baden, his hard-fought win was dismissed as a prep for the Arc but it could very well be that he was either past his peak form or the race was a reflection of his true ability. Still, having won 9 out of 11 races and being a strong German-bred, he's got to be respected, but while he might be in the placings, he's another lay for the win for me.

Kizuna. He's a Japanese Derby winner by Deep Impact and won the Prix Niel by a nose. I have him several notches behind Orfevre at this point and his current odds are way too short. I am willing to lay him for both the win and placings.

Ruler of the World. The Derby winner looked an unlucky second to Kizuna in the Niel, having endured a torrid trip to the finish line. The main question is how good he really is? The form at Epsom is certainly  not transpiring very well and he could be just a good horse. The fact that stablemate Leaing Light has been supplemented indicates that connections must not be too confident either. He will have to benefit from exceptional circumstances to win this. I don't think he will make the frame.

Al Kazeem.  He will relish the soft ground but the extreme-wide draw killed most of his chances today. He is a solid top-class horse that has done well since the start of the season but he hasn't faced horses like this before. Certainly a big lay for the win at current odds

Intello. He's the big question mark of the race for me. There are doubts about his stamina based on his pedigree, being by a Danehill sprinter mare. He's definitely top drawer and if his class can carry him through, he will be a major player. The indications are strong that he was not initially prepared for the race and was destined for the major 8 to 10 furlong Group races where he's excelled. However, the flop of flag bearer Flintshire in the Niel probably prompted trainer Fabre to divert his course to the Arc. I cannot have him as a Win based on his preparation but it wouldn't surprised me if he finished in the frame.

Flintshire. He was the major disappointment of the Prix Niel where he was supposed to show his credentials as a major player in the Arc. It could be that the soft ground played to his disadvantage on the day but the ground will not get any better on Sunday. Trainer Fabre has opined that Intello is his best chance, so it's hard to side with this representative of Juddmonte stables.

Leading Light. St Leger winner but I doubt he is good enough to win this. Being by Montjeu and having been supplemented, he's got to be respected but I don't share the confidence of the connections. He's a big lay for me.

It's got to be Orfevre for me, with the hope that he shows his true best on Sunday. If he succeeds where every Japanese runner, including the mighty Deep Impact, has failed, you can expect the roof to come down with the staunch army of Japanese supporters at Longchamp. It could be an Arc for the ages and Orfevre carries the hope of a nation. The "Crazy Horse" can do it. For the placings, I will go with Novellist and Intello.


Win: Orfevre
Place: Novellist, Intello
Lay for Win: Kizuna, Al Kazeem, Treve, Novellist, Ruler of the World, Leading Light

UCL Round 2 Wednesday

A couple of recommendations on tonight's matches.

Shakhtar v/s Man Utd. I think Man Utd are in for a tough one tonight. The Ukrainian outfits are a strong team and they will be like hungry wolves on a wounded prey as the Red Devils are reeling at the moment. Their poor show against WBA at Old Trafford shows that they are nowhere playing as a confident team yet. This match could very well end up in a draw and I definitely cannot see the hosts losing this one. They represent good draw-no-bet, and if one fancies a long flutter, I see them finishing top of this group in the end.

Real Madrid v/s Copenhagen. This is going to be a straight win for the hosts, eyes wide shut.

Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Shakhtar

UCL Round 2

Here are some of my views on a few of  today's UCL matches.

Basel v/s Shalke. The Swiss outfit were quite impressive coming out deserved winners at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago. They must have a great chance against the struggling Germans who are in a precarious bottom part of the table in the Bundesliga. I like Basel at market draw-no-bet odds and that is the selection.

Stueaua Bucharest v/s Chelsea. I cannot fathom the Blues not going through in this group and after their shocking loss in the opening round, they must be going out for the all-out win here. Nothing other than 3 invaluable points will do and I strongly feel that's what they will get out of there.

Porto v/s Atletico Madrid. The Spaniards will feel invincible after taking the scalp of bitter rivals Real Madrid at the Bernabeu over the week-end. Truly, this Atletico team is dangerous to any opposition at the moment. Porto are solid at home but there is a feeling that they are not top-notch. I strongly value the visitors' odds as draw-no-bet.

Win: Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Basel, Atletico Madrid

European Week-end Football

Some of my thoughts on this week-end's matches.

Tottenham v/s Chelsea. The reunion of Mourinho and ex-staffer Villas-Boas. The press might have tried, but no-one knows the level of break-down between the 2 managers. Maybe they'll give a better clue during the pre-match or post-match handshakes. On the pitch, I think Chelsea will be in for a torrid time. Spurs are no slouch at home and given their level of form, I like their chances to get at least a point out of this game. They are the draw-no-bet selection of this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Man City. The hosts will be missing their key weapon Benteke for the next few games and that is not a good omen for them. Man City are currently firing on all cylinders and their demolition of neighbours Man Utd last week-end will have given a mighty spring in their step. They should get out of Villa Park with full points. Straight win for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Cardiff. It's been a up and down start of the season so far for the Cottagers and they will relish the visit of Cardiff for some much-needed 3 points. Berbatov and Bent can do serious damage on their best day, and I reckon the hosts represent great value for the win at current odds here.

Man Utd v/s West Brom. The probability of WBA coming out of Old Trafford looks bleak. Now that their matches against the big runs are over, this could be the start of a winning run for the Red Devils. They should win this, particularly with RVP back.

Southampton v/s Crystal Palace. Soton are a tough team to break down at home and there is no reason to believe that Palace will reverse poor opposition records at the St Mary's. The hosts should build on last Saturday's impressive win at Anfield and get the 3 points.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. The Black Cats are a team in disarray. Obviously, Di Canio was never going to be a long-term fit. Suarez and Sturridge will relish this clash; I cannot see Liverpool getting beaten in this one. I see value backing them with a straight win.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona and Valencia. I like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet against Sevilla.

In the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern should get full points and continue their duel at the top of the table.

Win: Man City, Fulham, Man Utd, Southampton, Liverpool, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Sociedad.

UCL - Round 1

Champions League football starts on Tuesday and this year's competition looks wide open now that many of the leading clubs are under new management. There are certainly bound to be a few surprises out of the preliminary stages. Here are my thoughts on some of Tuesday's matches.

Man Utd v/s Leverkusen. I am probably one of just a handful that think that Man Utd are thoroughly exposed Group A. I don't think it's as easy a group for them and the fact that they are odds-against to land the group looks too short to me. Let's not forget that it will be Moyes' only second venture at this level and as his predecessor SAF would say, experience is the key. They might go through to the knockout stages but I doubt it will be plain sailing. Their opponents Leverkusen, Shakhtar and Sociedad will all be tough cookies. Tomorrow's opponents Leverkusen are in very good form in the Bundesliga, having won 4 of their first 5 games. They have a dangerous striker in Kiessling who will be a goal scoring threat at Old Trafford. I think this will be a really close game and wouldn't be surprised if it ended in a draw. Still, Man Utd are always formidable at home on these European nights and could very well nick it at the end. The Red Devils are a draw-no-bet selection.

Real Sociedad v/s Shahktar. I really fancy the Spaniards to finish in the top 2 of this group. They are a real talented team that ended up 4th in La Liga and knocked off French outfit Lyon in convincing fashion in the qualifying round. They will aim to get maximum points at home to further their aspirations for the next round. Shakhtar are on their 4th consecutive UCL season but have lost arguably their best player in Willian to Chelsea. At current odds, I really like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet.

FC Kobenhavn v/s Juventus. No contest here, this looks like 3 straight easy points for Juve.

Benfica v/s Anderlecht. The hosts look good value to land the spoils. I have reservations about the quality of this Belgian side, which does not seem anywhere as good as its predecessors. One of these 2 teams should accompany favourites PSG to the next round, so the Portuguese will want to get maximum points from this encounter.

Olympiakos v/s PSG. The French should get at least a point out of this if they fail to win, so they are a draw-no-bet selection.

Bayern v/s CSKA Moscow. Straight win for the defending champions.

Viktoria v/s Man City. Pellegrini knows UCL better than Mancini, so I expect City to do well in the competition this season. They should very well go through to the next round. They will have Kompany back for the game and should be difficult to score against. Viktoria are a decent team that actually managed to tie Milan at home a couple of years ago. So the Citizens should be on their guard on this one and it's safest to stick with them as a draw-no-bet.

Win: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Benfica
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Sociedad, Man City, PSG

EPL Week 4

This week-end will give a good indication of the impact of the transfer window on the conditions of the teams in the EPL. New acquisitions will need to settle in and some will do it quicker than others. The play and performance of the teams should give some direction as to expectations of them in the months ahead. Here's my view of the week-end matches.

Man Utd v/s Crystal Palace. Home win. This Man Utd team is still a work in progress under Moyes but they cannot afford to lose points at home to the visitors. There is no doubt that the Red Devils had a disappointing transfer window after their setbacks in recruiting some big names, but I think they did very well in getting Fellaini from Everton. He should give a tonic to a placid central midfield. RVP has been banging goals for the Netherlands during the international qualifiers, and there is little doubt that he will be on the score-sheet again on Saturday.

Aston Villa v/s Newcastle. This could be ripe for a draw, although Villa should be able to test the resolve of a suspect Newcastle defence. Cabaye makes his anticipated return for the Magpies after failing to secure a switch to Arsenal and Ben Arfa is always capable of springing a magical moment for the visitors. But this is a match Villains star striker Benteke must look forward to banging goals and if he's on song, the balance could tilt in favour of the hosts. Villa as draw-no-bet is the selection.

Fulham v/s West Brom. The Cottagers dropped their last two games and WBA have yet to record a win. They lost striker Odemwinge during the transfer window and I was surprised that they did not go all out for Chelsea's Lukaku. I give Fulham the edge here and a draw-no-bet on them look safe and value at current odds.

Hull v/s Cardiff. This could very well be a low-scoring affair with possibly a goal deciding this match, should there be a winner. Could go any result.

Stoke v/s Man City. The problem with giving full confidence to Man City these days is due to the absence of their captain and rock at the back, Vincent Kompany. His absence was clearly evident in their loss at Cardiff where they gave up 2 goals on corners. Although Stoke will certainly make life difficult for them, the Citizens have enough quality to settle this tie. They just cannot afford to lose this game after their recent debacle at Cardiff. Man City as draw-no-bet is the selection.

Sunderland v/s Arsenal. Ozil is the main name for the Gunners. I don't know if he's worth the amount of money they paid for him but the German is pure class and looks set to be a major playmaker for them. His arrival will have given confidence to the entire squad that they are a team that can aim high. Arsenal should win this and are a straight Win selection.

Tottenham v/s Norwich. No team has been affected more than Tottenham during this transfer window. They lost their soul in Bale and the main question is how his absence and the arrival of seven new players have affected the quality of the team. The pressure is on Villas-Boas to mould this new team into an equally-good or better team than last year's. Their first 3 matches have been laborious, having won 2 matches by the minimum score on 2 penalties and being blanked out at Arsenal. Norwich could not have found a better time to visit White Hart Lane and will definitely see to snatching at least a point out of this encounter. At current odds, Spurs look a decent draw-no-bet proposal.

Everton v/s Chelsea. If Chelsea play like they did against Bayern in the Super Cup, they should win this match in hand. Everton have yet to win this season and although their manager is saying the contrary, the departure of Fellaini is a blow for them (at least on the field). The fact that the Toffees are still not firing on all cylinders at the presenet means that Chelsea will certainly be looking for the win here. I think they'll succeed and are a Win selection.

Southampton v/s West Ham. The Hammers will do without striker Carroll and playmaker Joe Cole. It looks very much that manager Allardyce will try to park the bus and be content with a point. Southampton should have all its players from international duty in good condition and their good record at home points to either a win or draw in this match. I have them as a good draw-no-bet.

Swansea v/s Liverpool. How much valuable is Sturridge to Liverpool? Well, he scored the only 3 goals in their first 3 games, and all his goals have been match-winners. I think their good form is going to be hit hard when they travel to Swansea. I like the look of Laudrup's team. They play good football and are always a goalscoring threat to any team.  I selected them for an away win at WBA last week and I have confidence in them again to put an end to the Kops' winning record. Swansea is the value draw-no-bet of the week-end.

Win: Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Southampton, Swansea, Tottenham, Man City, Fulham, Aston Villa

EPL Week 3

My thoughts on this week-end's football matches.

Cardiff v/s Everton. Obviously, like everyone else, I was shocked that Cardiff got all 3 points against Man City last week. They capitalized on their corner kicks late in the game to make the difference. But I seriously think it was more a case of the visitors gifting victory to them; their defending in the absence of defensive rock Kompany was just a shambles. That said, the Bluebirds have shown great fighting spirit and will be a force to reckon with when playing at home. Everton were pegged back by a stubborn West Brom side last week and are somewhat distracted by the bids for Fellaini and Baines from Man Utd. No doubt that they will be weakened if they lose one or both of their star players. However, the duo have been sparkling in the opening games, so there does not seem to be any problem with their actual states of mind. I see value going with the Toffees as a draw-no-bet here.

Crystal Palace v/s Sunderland. Both teams came close to their first wins of the season last week, only to be pegged back late in the second half. They look poised to do battle at the wrong end of the table and will appreciate getting full points from the match. This should be a low scoring affair with the possible winner edging it by a single goal. Better to stay on the sidelines on this one.

Man City v/s Hull. Even without their captain Kompany, the hosts should win this one. They cannot afford to drop silly points like in Cardiff last week.

Newcastle v/s Fulham. It is understandable that the Magpies want Demba Ba back in some capacity, because they are truly lacking up front. On the positive side, they will have their playmaker Cabaye back for this match. How settled or unsettled he is after interest from Arsenal, remains to be seen. Although Fulham will be missing goalkeeper Stekelenburg, I do fancy their chances to get at least a point from this match. In Berbatov, Rodallega and Bent, they have enough firepower to cause damage to put Pardew's men on the backfoot. They are the value draw-no-bet selection of the week-end.

Norwich v/s Southampton. I need to see more of these 2 sides to make an honest opinion of the quality of the sides. Norwich are always potent at home. Southampton was slightly disappointing in not overcoming Sunderland in the last round and it is possibly a case of getting some of the new players settling in. On the fence.

West Ham v/s Stoke. Hard to see Stoke stealing this after their rather laborious start to the season. I expected more of them against Crystal Palace last week as they had to really dig in to overcome the Eagles. The Cottages should be a tough nut to crack at home this year and they should either land or share the spoils. I have them as draw-no-bet.

Arsenal v/s Tottenham. The Gunners have racked 3 wins in a row after their opening day debacle. Spurs have won all their 4 games without conceding any goal. Their first 2 EPL games have been game winners by newcomer Soldado on penalties. Unlike many of the previous editions, I think this match looks set to be a low scoring affair. Spurs will be missing Bale again, but I like their current odds with a 1-goal advantage.

Liverpool v/s Man Utd. The Kops got match winners from Sturridge in their opening games and it will be a good test to see where the team is really at when they take on the champions. If Sturridge is shackled, it is not clear where the goals will come from the hosts. I thought Man Utd was very solid defensively against Chelsea on Monday. No doubt that with the presence of captain Vidic, they are more secure at the back and can initiate their flowing football more confidently. Rooney seems to have put to bed his resignation to leave the club and with his spirits in good order, can create havoc to Liverpool. Unlike many others, I have yet to be convinced of the quality of this Liverpool side. I don't think they are among the top 5 teams yet. At current odds, I see value in siding with Man Utd as draw-no-bet.

West Brom v/s Swansea. Anelka should return to bolster the Baggies line-up but they will dearly be missing goalkeeper Foster. Like WBA, Swansea are still looking for their first win and I believe they can capitalize on the injury issues facing the hosts to conjure up the 3 points. I think it great value to chancing with Laudrup's men for the straight win.


Win: Man City, Swansea
Draw-no-bet: Fulham, West Ham, Man Utd.
+1 Handicap: Tottenham