EPL 2016/17 - Week 20

Hull v/s Everton - Home win
Burnley v/s Sunderland - Home win
Chelsea v/s Stoke - Home win
Leicester v/s West Ham - Away win
Man Utd v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
Southampton v/s West Brom - Draw
Swansea v/s Bournemouth - Away win
Liverpool v/s Man City - Home win
Watford v/s Tottenham - Away win
Arsenal v/s Crystal Palace - Home win

"Stay with the same" is the motto for New Year's selections. There is a reunion of sorts at Old Trafford where Boro boss Karanka meets his ex-Real Madrid boss Mourinho. Man Utd should prove too good here and keep their running winning sequence intact.

Arsenal host Palace in what is another Wenger/Allardyce match-up. Arsenal worked hard to break down WBA in their last match but they fully deserved the 3 points. They will face the same type of challenge against an Eagles team that I expect to improve from the Pardew days from now on. However, Allardyce will need more than a few matches under his belt to get the team back rolling and on this basis, the Gunners should be able to win this based on their superior firepower.

Win: Arsenal, Man Utd

EPL 2016/17 - Week 19

Watford v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Arsenal v/s WBA - Home win
Burnley v/s Middlesbrough - Away win
Chelsea v/s Bournemouth - Draw
Leicester v/s Everton - Home win
Man Utd v/s Sunderland - Home win
Swansea v/s West Ham - Away win
Hull v/s Man City - Away win
Liverpool v/s Stoke - Home win
Southampton v/s Tottenham  - Home win


Man Utd to beat Sunderland is a banker home win, no other way to describe it. I see the Red Devils going on a very good run and Mourinho seems to be getting the better of his squad with every passing match. They might have left too many points on the table to be seriously considered a title contender but Man Utd will be very hard to beat against anyone. Safe home win.

Arsenal are on a 2-game losing streak and that is bound to stop as they welcome WBA. It's the same old story with the Gunners; their title aspirations are always cut short by a damaging losing streak. They will hope that they are not on one currently and although WBA are a tough team to break, the Gunners have enough firepower to get the much-needed full points at the Emirates. They won't lose this match and it might very well be worth chancing on a straight home win.

Win: Man Utd, Arsenal
Double Win: Man Utd/Arsenal

EPS 2016/17 - Week 18

Crystal Palace v/s Chelsea - Home win
Middlesbrough v/s Swansea - Draw
Stoke v/s Leicester - Home win
Sunderland v/s Watford - Home win
West Ham v/s Hull - Home win
WBA v/s Man Utd - Home win
Bournemouth v/s Southampton - Draw
Man City v/s Arsenal - Home win
Tottenham v/s Burnley - Home win
Everton v/s Liverpool - Away win

This week-end's matches look pretty even across the board and I am not expecting to reach Week 17's strike rate of 9 correct out of 10. I see quite a few home wins but a goal here and there can easily tilt the result in the other direction.

I expect Spurs to beat Burnley at home. Kane was uncharacteristically quiet against Hull on Wednesday as Spurs found it hard to overcome Phelan's stubborn side. The England striker can make amends against a lowly Burnley side with a poor away record. This should end in a home win that consolidates Tottenham's ambitions to stay firmly in the hunt for the league title.

Everton were poor against Arsenal, yet managed to get the win in the end. With that kind of display, I cannot see them overcome a Liverpool team that seems to be hitting top form at the moment. Klopp and his men demolished Middlesbrough in mid-week and are showing attacking intent from all corners even with the loss of Coutinho. I expect a high-tempo game for this Merseyside derby and the Kops should prove too strong in the end. An away win looks set on the cards here.

Win: Tottenham, Liverpool

EPL 2016/17 - Week 17

Bournemouth v/s Leicester - Home win
Everton v/s Arsenal - Draw
Middlesbrough v/s Liverpool - Away win
Sunderland v/s Chelsea - Away win
West Ham v/s Burnley - Home win
Crystal Palace v/s Man Utd - Away win
Man City v/s Watford - Home win
Stoke v/s Southampton - Draw
Tottenham v/s Hull - Home win
WBA v/s Swansea - Home win

Man City have a great opportunity to get back to winning ways as they host Watford. Pep Guardiola is finding how things are tough in the EPL; this is no La Liga or Bundesliga where only 2 or 3 teams matter. The Citizens are not as dangerous without Aguero but they still have the likes of de Bruyne and Toure who can make the difference at any point in the match. They cannot afford much slip-up at this time and they should come away with the full points against a Watford team with a suspicious away record.

I expect West Brom to beat Swansea at the Hawthorne. Pulis' men are very strong at home and the visitors will find it tough to score against them. The Baggies were arguably unlucky to concede a late goal and defeat at Chelsea last week-end but they should have an attack-minded team against a Swans team that can concede by the bucket load. At current odds, a West Brom outright win makes great appeal.

Win: Man City, West Brom

EPL 2016/17 - Week 16

Watford v/s Everton - Home win
Arsenal v/s Stoke - Home win
Burnley v/s Bournemouth - Away win
Hull v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Swansea v/s Sunderland - Home win
Leicester vs Man City - Draw
Chelsea v/s WBA - Home win
Man Utd v/s Tottenham - Draw
Southampton v/s Middlesbrough - Draw
Liverpool v/s West Ham - Home win

After their rather astounding collapse in Bournemouth last week, I expect Liverpool to get back to winning ways when they host the Hammers. It is true that the Kops have a vital cog in their attack missing with Coutinho out, but they can still score by the bucket load with the system that Klopp has put into place. Their weakness is their defence, which showed its weaknesses against the Cherries. West Ham are toiling and it seems there is no end to their problem. They were totally hapless against the Gunners last week and I cannot see them rebound that easily from that debacle. Bilic is really in trouble as far as job security is concerned. Liverpool will win this.

Sunderland have gotten some nice points on the board lately but Swansea will be looking to score some much-needed points as well. I believe for Swansea to stay up they will have to get most of their points at home and beat fellow struggling teams. The Black Cats definitely fit in that category. A failure to beat Sunderland will say long about their ability to avoid the relegation zone and any progress or regress made under new manager Bradley. I believe they will not lose this match and so side with them as an outright win or a draw-no-bet.

Win: Liverpool
Win or Draw-no-bet: Swansea

EPL 2016/17 - Week 15

Man City v/s Chelsea - Home win
Crystal Palace v/s Southampton - Home win
Stoke v/s Burnley - Draw
Sunderland v/s Leicester - Away win
Tottenham v/s Swansea - Home win
WBA v/s Watford - Home win
West Ham v/s Arsenal - Home win
Bournemouth v/s Liverpool - Away win
Everton v/s Man Utd - Draw
Middlesbrough v/s Hull - Home win


Man City against Chelsea is without doubt the highlight match of the week-end. For all their irresistible form of late and their winning run sequence, I think Chelsea will dive right back to reality after this road trip. I cannot see them win this match, and if they get lucky they might sneak out a point. But there is a big chance that Man City will overpower them in all departments and get the all-important 3 points. The thing with the Blues is that they are dominant at Stamford Bridge where they suffocate their opponents with their fluid football from start to finish. They cannot perform at the same level when visiting top-level teams. They need control and possession of the ball as they rely on incisive through balls to beat defenders. They will not get those kinds of opportunities against Guardiola's men. The one weakness of the home team is the unsettling of their central defending positions; Kompany is crocked yet again and Otamendi is the only reliable rock there. Still, I see an outright home win here.

I see West Ham snatching something out of their match against Arsenal. The Gunners fielded a totally unrecognizable second-string team in their midweek league cup match against Southampton and there is no doubt that Arsene Wenger wants his team totally fit and focused on the Premier League. With main man Sanchez having been on a non-stop run since the summer, it is clear that concerns regarding his freshness are legit. The Gunners are not as potent when the Chilean is not firing on all cylinders. The Hammers definitely have the capacity to match the visitors. With Payet, they are supremely dangerous on dead-ball situations. Their form has improved slightly of late but it is more a matter of urgency for them to earn points in order to get out of their precarious league position. I really like the outright win and double chance value on the Hammers in the exchange markets as they cannot see them lose this match.

Win: Man City, West Ham
Double Chance: West Ham

EPL 2016/17 - Week 14

Burnley v/s Man City - Away win
Hull v/s WBA - Draw
Leicester v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
Liverpool v/s Sunderland - Home win
Swansea v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Chelsea v/s Tottenham - Home win
Watford v/s Stoke - Home win
Arsenal v/s Bournemouth - Home win
Man Utd v/s West Ham - Home win
Southampton v/s Everton - Draw

I see lots of home wins this week. Liverpool should blow out Sunderland. I cannot think of a better 'banker' win. Sunderland will do well to keep this a low score but I don't think they will. Arsenal should overcome Bournemouth although I don't think it will be a thrashing as with the Reds. The Gunners are puffing of late and a tough mid-week match against PSG is bound to leave stamina questions for this match. Still, I think Wenger will just sneak through with the all-important 3 points.

I expect Man Utd to confirm their renewal of form by beating the struggling Hammers. The Red Devils were oh-so rampant against Arsenal in their last league match but failed to win but they confirmed their good disposition by thrashing Feyenood in mid-week. Something seems to have clicked nicely during the Arsenal match and Mourinho's men could be on a roll now. Another home win.

It might be worth chancing with Swansea to give manager Bradley his first EPL win. Visiting Crystal Palace are a team capable of the best and worst; in other words, they are not a reliable team to have any confidence at all. At current odds, going with a Swansea win or Double chance (win or draw) could be rewarding.

Win: Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd, Swansea
Win or draw: Swansea

EPL 2016/17 - Week 13

Man Utd v/s Arsenal - Home win
Crystal Palace v/s Man City - Away win
Everton v/s Swansea - Home win
Southampton v/s Liverpool - Home win
Stoke v/s Bournemouth - Home win
Sunderland v/s Hull - Draw
Watford v/s Leicester - Draw
Tottenham v/s West Ham - Draw
Middlesbrough v/s Chelsea - Away win
WBA v/s Burnley - Home win

The big match this week-end, without doubt, is at Old Trafford for yet another Mourinho - Wenger showdown. The Portuguese near-flawless record against his nemesis is well documented and I see the pattern staying unchanged after this match. It's true that the Gunners have been flying of late, but a view of their recent outings suggests that their good streak is about to end sooner than later. Mourinho will be pumped up not to lose against a despised rival and will resort to whatever means, including parking the bus, to stutter the potent of the Gunners attack. Another piece of bad news for the Gunners is the potential absence of Alexis Sanchez. I cannot see the Red Devils losing this one; they either will win or draw.

I also see Liverpool dropping points as they visit Southampton. I mentioned a couple of weeks back that it would be difficult for them to maintain the form and tempo they have been enthralling the league since the start. The St Mary's is a tough place to go to and the Kops can expect a serious fight until the final whistle. I like the home team's odds here for an outright win but a draw-no-bet looks reasonable as well.

Win or draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Southampton

EPL 2016/17 - Week 12

Bournemouth v/s Sunderland - Home win
Burnley v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Man City v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
West Ham v/s Stoke - Home win
Chelsea v/s Everton - Home win
Arsenal v/s Tottenham - Away win
Hull v/s Southampton - Draw
Liverpool v/s Watford - Home win
Swansea v/s Man Utd - Away win
Leicester v/s West Brom - Home win

Chelsea are on a roll and Everton could be having a long afternoon at Stamford Bridge. The Blues boasts a stellar home record against leading teams this season including 3-0 and 4-0 thrashings of Leicester and Man Utd respectively. Hazard, Pedro and Costa just seem to find an extra step in front of their supporters, which is not always the case on their travels. After a very strong start, Everton have gone back in the ranks lately but will rely on ex-Chelsea striker Lukaku to do damage at the front end, although it won't be easy against Courtois. It is possible The Toffees can snatch a draw in this one but it might be worth going for the outright home win here, given the market odds.

The match of the week-end will be at the Emirates for the London Derby between the Gunners and Spurs. Both teams had different fortunes in their midweek UCL encounters. Arsenal struggled to go beat minnows Ludogorets while Pochettino's men lost at Wembley to Bayer Leverkusen. The Gunners are on a good streak but I think they can be vulnerable against their resilient rivals here. Spurs have proven to be a tough team to beat even without their main striker Kane. While the England striker might make his comeback after injury, the visitors' strength relies on the coherence of their defensive and midfield corps. If Tottenham can withstand the attacks of Sanchez and Ozil, a deciding goal at the other end is definitely within their reach. Spurs as a Double Chance (Draw or Away) or Draw-no-bet look to be great value plays.

Win: Chelsea
Draw-no-bet or Double-Chance: Tottenham

EPL 2016/17 - Week 11

Bournemouth v/s Sunderland - Home win
Burnley v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Man City v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
West Ham v/s Stoke - Home win
Chelsea v/s Everton - Home win
Arsenal v/s Tottenham - Away win
Hull v/s Southampton - Draw
Liverpool v/s Watford - Home win
Swansea v/s Man Utd - Away win
Leicester v/s West Brom - Home win

Chelsea are on a roll and Everton could be having a long afternoon at Stamford Bridge. The Blues boasts a stellar home record against leading teams this season including 3-0 and 4-0 thrashings of Leicester and Man Utd respectively. Hazard, Pedro and Costa just seem to find an extra step in front of their supporters, which is not always the case on their travels. After a very strong start, Everton have gone back in the ranks lately but will rely on ex-Chelsea striker Lukaku to do damage at the front end, although it won't be easy against Courtois. It is possible The Toffees can snatch a draw in this one but it might be worth going for the outright home win here, given the market odds.

The match of the week-end will be at the Emirates for the London Derby between the Gunners and Spurs. Both teams had different fortunes in their midweek UCL encounters. Arsenal struggled to go beat minnows Ludogorets while Pochettino's men lost at Wembley to Bayer Leverkusen. The Gunners are on a good streak but I think they can be vulnerable against their resilient rivals here. Spurs have proven to be a tough team to beat even without their main striker Kane. While the England striker might make his comeback after injury, the visitors' strength relies on the coherence of their defensive and midfield corps. If Tottenham can withstand the attacks of Sanchez and Ozil, a deciding goal at the other end is definitely within their reach. Spurs as a Double Chance (Draw or Away) or Draw-no-bet look to be great value plays.

Win: Chelsea
Draw-no-bet or Double-Chance: Tottenham

EPL 2016/17 - Week 11

Bournemouth v/s Sunderland - Home win
Burnley v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Man City v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
West Ham v/s Stoke - Home win
Chelsea v/s Everton - Home win
Arsenal v/s Tottenham - Away win
Hull v/s Southampton - Draw
Liverpool v/s Watford - Home win
Swansea v/s Man Utd - Away win
Leicester v/s West Brom - Home win

Chelsea are on a roll and Everton could be having a long afternoon at Stamford Bridge. The Blues boasts a stellar home record against leading teams this season including 3-0 and 4-0 thrashings of Leicester and Man Utd respectively. Hazard, Pedro and Costa just seem to find an extra step in front of their supporters, which is not always the case on their travels. After a very strong start, Everton have gone back in the ranks lately but will rely on ex-Chelsea striker Lukaku to do damage at the front end, although it won't be easy against Courtois. It is possible The Toffees can snatch a draw in this one but it might be worth going for the outright home win here, given the market odds.

The match of the week-end will be at the Emirates for the London Derby between the Gunners and Spurs. Both teams had different fortunes in their midweek UCL encounters. Arsenal struggled to go beat minnows Ludogorets while Pochettino's men lost at Wembley to Bayer Leverkusen. The Gunners are on a good streak but I think they can be vulnerable against their resilient rivals here. Spurs have proven to be a tough team to beat even without their main striker Kane. While the England striker might make his comeback after injury, the visitors' strength relies on the coherence of their defensive and midfield corps. If Tottenham can withstand the attacks of Sanchez and Ozil, a deciding goal at the other end is definitely within their reach. Spurs as a Double Chance (Draw or Away) or Draw-no-bet look to be great value plays.

Win: Chelsea
Draw-no-bet or Double-Chance: Tottenham

EPL 2016/17 - Week 10

Sunderland v/s Arsenal - Away win
Man Utd v/s Burnley - Home win
Middlesbrough v/s Bournemouth - Home win
Tottenham v/s Leicester City - Home win
Watford v/s Hull - Home win
WBA v/s Man City - Away win
Crystal Palace v/s Liverpool - Home win
Everton v/s West Ham - Home win
Southampton v/s Chelsea - Home win
Stoke v/s Swansea - Away win

It's hard to imagine Arsenal leaving any points on the table as they did against Boro last week-end. Simply put, Sunderland find it hard to get a win, let alone a goal, so the Gunners should have too much for them here.

I think Liverpool is due for some slip-up soon. They were very lucky to scrape a win in their last away match against Swansea. Palace manager Alan Pardew is certainly no stranger to upsets and I really see value in an Eagles win or a draw-no-bet firmly in their favour.

Win: Arsenal
Draw-no-bet or Win: Crystal Palace

EPL 2016/17 - Week 9

Bournemouth v/s Tottenham - Home win
Arsenal v/s Middlesbrough - Home win
Burnley v/s Everton - Away win
Hull v/s Stoke - Home win
Leicester v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Swansea v/s Watford - Home win
West Ham v/s Sunderland - Home win
Liverpool v/s WBA - Home win
Man City v/s Southampton - Home win
Chelsea v/s Man Utd - Away win

I see some value siding with a few outsiders here. Bournemouth are big underdogs at home to visiting Spurs and it would be no surprise if the home team wins this match. They blitzed Hull last week and their home form so far is more or less solid. Spurs are still unbeaten but there's definitely the feeling that that streak won't hold long. They have scraped draws lately and look vulnerable particularly after playing away mid-week in the UCL. For value, a win or draw-no-bet with the Cherries could reap big rewards.

I also see Swansea having a good result as they host Watford. New manager Bob Bradley is a good manager who will definitely up the fortunes of the Swans. They came close against Arsenal for his baptism of fire but I see them getting better results as the season progresses. Watford is well within their grasp and again here, an outright win or draw-no-bet should be a winning ticket.

Finally, Man City should overcome the Saints to put an end to their win-less streak. The fact that both teams played in mid-week nullifies any fitness advantage but Aguero will be all guns blazing as he was mostly on the bench against Barcelona. Southampton are a tough team to overcome but City should have too much firepower in this one.

Win: Man City, Bournemouth, Swansea

EPL 2016/17 - Week 8

Chelsea v/s Leicester City - Home win
Bournemouth v/s Hull - Home win
Arsenal v/s Swansea - Home win
Man City v/s Everton - Home win
Stoke v/s Sunderland - Home win
WBA v/s Tottenham - Draw
Crystal Palace v/s West Ham - Home win
Middlesbrough v/s Watford - Home win
Southampton v/s Burnley - Home win
Liverpool v/s Man Utd - Home win

You will have seen that I foresee a lot of home wins this week-end. Coming back from the international break is always treacherous but the fixture list has really pit many strong teams playing at home, hence the bias. There might be more value in doing some exotics or multiples here; Southampton and Man City look bankers on paper as they host Burnley and Everton respectively. Bournemouth to beat Hull is by no means certain, but can pay good dividends if coupled with the bankers.

Stoke looks a value punt on its own as Mark Hughes' men try to get their season started against Sunderland. If they can hit the same kind of home form as last year's, the Potters should comfortably overcome the equally-struggling visitors.

Multiples: Man City / Southampton / Bournemouth 
Value win: Stoke

Arc de Triomphe 2016 - Postponed to the test

This year's Arc looks wide open with a few that have legitimate aspirations to win and the fact that Chantilly will be the temporary venue to the world's greatest race, only adds to the intrigue. I will pick 4 names from the 16-runner race, the quartet from which I believe the winner will emerge. Postponed, Found, Makahiki and Harzand.

Postponed is the deserved favourite going into the race; the son of Dubawi is unbeaten in 4 races this year and has proven himself the world's best middle-distance performer. This 5-year old is clearly flourishing with age and has been showing consistent top-class form over the past couple of years that makes him a difficult one to oppose in any race. There are not many chinks in his armor and it's pretty much a guarantee that he will be in the thereabouts at the finish. I cannot see him out of the first 4.

It is a staggering fact that Found has been runner-up in 9 Group 1 races. Much was expected of the daughter of Galileo this year after she had blown away Golden Horn in last year's Breeders' Cup. While she has only won one race out of her seven races this year, she has mostly been in the thereabouts to finish runner-up in most of them. Her not being good enough, or just being an unlucky second is a matter of interpretation, but what is beyond doubt is that she is of the top drawer and can land this race. It could very well be that she is an autumn filly; after all she was third in this race last year before brilliantly lowering Golden Horn's colours in the US. A big player in my books.

Is Makahiki the one to break Japan's curse in the Arc? Will he be the one redeeming his illustrious sire's defeat ten years ago to this day? Japan's best have always fallen short in dramatic circumstances at Longchamp and the roof will come down if Makahiki can end years of Nippon hurt. He seemed to win the Prix Niel in hand but I would have been more convinced if he had won more with more to spare; in other words, I wasn't as impressed as others were. I can't see him at the level of his sire or Orfevre but if he produces a career best and no-one else is showing on the day, maybe he is the blessed one from the land of the rising sun.

Harzand is the subject of ultra-confident whispers from the Dermot Weld camp and that is enough to decipher that the Derby winner will be at the peak of his powers on Sunday. He came out injured in his last race at ten furlongs but this will ideally suit him. A 3-year old, he will benefit from a non-negligible 3 pound allowance. He is a serious grinder and I see him punching his way through the field in the last 200 yards as the others run out of stamina. 

As mentioned, I believe the winner will come from the above. Unless some kind of Solemia strikes again. A top performance from Postponed will make him difficult to beat. On form, he should prevail and another plus is that he is drawn best of the four. Makahiki has the class to cause an upset should things fall rightly into place for him and it is by no means a stretch to think that the son of Deep Impact will finally deliver to the Japanese their Holy Grail.

Win: Postponed

Win (value): Makahiki