EPL Week 20

Happy New Year 2014 everyone! Wishing everyone a successful coming year, in and outside the punting arena. Some thoughts on the New Year's EPL matches.

Swansea v/s Man City. Swansea are currently on a winless streak that is mostly due to a horrendous injury list that includes their star striker Michu. They have been missing an out-and-out striker that can poach crucial goals like the Spaniard used to last season. Man City have been doing a lot better on their travels of late after having compiled a very poor away record during the first months. They will be missing playmaker Silva but their squad is big enough to cope with any loss at any position. I think it might be worth playing it from a tight-match angle and have the visitors as a draw-no-bet and have Swansea with a +1 goal handicap (draw is void).

Arsenal v/s Cardiff. This should end in a home win no matter what resilience Cardiff can come up with.

Crystal Palace v/s Norwich. I am probably of a minority, but I seriously believe that Crystal Palace are going to avoid relegation this season. The reason is new manager Pulis who's managed to get 3 wins already since his appointment. This is a 6-pointer for both teams, and I fancy the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Fulham v/s West Ham. This will probably end in a draw or a home win. Best to avoid as the forms of both teams cannot be relied in any way.

Liverpool v/s Hull City. Suarez has been blanked for the past 2 matches and it would take a brave man to see him off the score-sheet in this one. Hull are mighty at home and well organized on the road. However, class should prevail here and it's hard to see the Kops being beaten at home, after 2 tough away defeats. Liverpool is a home win selection.

Southampton v/s Chelsea. This looks set to be a close one and I don't think there will be more than a goal separating the teams. Best to avoid as the result can go any way.

Sunderland v/s Aston Villa. The hosts are enjoying a revival under Poyet and this is a match they will be keen to get full points to avoid staying in the relegation limelight. Villa are woeful at the moment and cannot be backed in any way. I like Sunderland as a draw-no-bet in this one.

West Brom v/s Newcastle. I think the Baggies are under-valued in the current market. Last game week, I went against Newcastle when they hosted Arsenal and I think it worth to lay against them again this week. West Brom are a solid team at home and they look to be good value as draw-no-bet.

Man Utd v/s Tottenham.  The fortunes of the Red Devils seems to have turned for the better for the past weeks and they seem to be getting the rubber of the green, something they lacked in the prior games. I cannot see them lose this match and if Rooney makes it in the starting line-up, they could very well get full points. They are a win selection for good value, but if a safe route is preferred, then a draw-no-bet looks a safe selection.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, West Brom
+1: Swansea

EPL Week 19

This is the part of the season where having a real squad can make a difference in winning and losing matches. With so many games in such a short span and injuries invariably mounting, managers need to get their rotations right.

West Ham v/s West Brom. This looks like a drab draw in the making. The Hammers are beset by injuries and goals look set to be hard to come by. The Baggies are still manager-less but would have been happy to snatch a point at White Hart Lane on Boxing Day. If this game is to decide a winner, it looks to be by the minimum goal but chances are that a draw is the likeliest result.

Aston Villa v/s Swansea. Another game with 2 teams with awful form. Both are playing without their star players in Benteke and Michu. Best to avoid.

Man City v/s Crystal Palace. Although the Eagles are enjoying a renewal since Pulis took over, there isn't a more difficult place to go than the Etihad. They will retain some hope to get at least something out of the game with the knowledge that they almost kept Chelsea in check at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago. After beating Liverpool, the hosts will need to retain their focus to play a weaker team and get the necessary full points. It might be easier said than done, but in the end, City have the best squad in the league and should have the necessary resources to get the win.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. I think the Red Devils are a little exposed here. They had to tough it out to win at Hull on Boxing Day and this is going to be another hard game. They will be thin at right-back with Valencia picking up a rather stupid late red card. Carrow Road is a place they have struggled over the past years. The Canaries are beset by a few injuries at the moment but they still battle hard at home. I think it might be worth to go with the hosts with a +1 handicap at current market odds.

Cardiff v/s Sunderland. Cardiff have just lost their manager and this does not bode well for the visit of Black Cats who will be invigorated after their latest away win at Everton. The momentum is clearly with Sunderland and I see them as a value draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Arsenal. Newcastle are in flying form and I might be wrong, but I believe their current 5th position flatters them a bit. They are a Top 10 side, but definitely not Top 6. The Gunners can make them crash down to earth on any day, but they will be missing mercurial midfielder Aaron Ramsey, their best player since the start of the season. The good news for Arsenal is the return of striker Podolski after a 4-month absence. At current market odds, I like Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

Chelsea v/s Liverpool. Can Brendan Rodgers, an old assistant to Mourinho, be the one to end the Portuguese's invincible league record at Stamford Bridge? On paper, it looks tough for that to happen since they will be missing Gerrard and Sturridge. The Kops came out enhanced in their Boxing Day defeat at the Etihad and they will have to produce another strong performance to overcome the hosts. I think a draw is the likeliest outcome and if there is to be a winner, it will probably be the hosts. Chelsea is a draw-no-bet selection.

Tottenham v/s Stoke. Still undecided on this Spurs side under Tim Sherwood, so will stay on the fence watching their next few games to come up on an opinion on which direction their season will be going.


Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Arsenal, Chelsea
+1 Goal: Norwich.

EPL Week 17

The games will be coming fast and furious during the festive season; bring'em on!

Liverpool v/s Cardiff. The Kops look to be the banker of the week-end. Even without Gerrard and Sturridge, they are in flying form thanks to Suarez. Cardiff, on the other hand, are rocked by a severe off-field dispute between manager and owner. Once the 90 mins are over, they could very well be manager-less. The Kops should win this by a margin and no need to mention who's most apt to score.

Crystal Palace v/s Newcastle. Many are giving the in-form Magpies a strong chance here. I will go the other way and make the Eagles the value draw-no-bet of the week-end. Under Pulis they are a becoming a resilient team that is difficult to break down. They've won 2 of the past 3 and came out with honours intact in last defeat at Stamford Bridge. I think Palace can avoid the drop with the kind of work ethic Pulis is instilling in the team.

Fulham v/s Man City. The news that Dempsey is to re-join Fulham on-loan is definitely a plus in its fight to stave off relegation. However, the visit of EPL favourites Man City, does not bode well for the hosts. Even without main striker Aguero, City has the best squad in the league and can manage goal-scoring threats from many other sources. Their recent win at Munich in particular, will give them the confidence to overcome their currently poor away league record. Man City are a Win selection.

Man Utd v/s West Ham. I think Man Utd is on a winning streak here after 2 dismal and well-documented home defeats. Should be a win for the Red Devils.

Stoke v/s Aston Villa. Mark Hughes seems to have finally impregnated the team with his footprint and they are now a difficult team to break down. They must have a great chance against the struggling Villains. I like the hosts as a safe draw-no-bet proposition.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. On paper, Sunderland should edge this although I am not sure how much a toll their extra-time win against Chelsea in mid-week will affect them. Norwich are very vulnerable on their away travels, and are hard to warrant any kind of confidence. This could very well end in a draw and better to sit on the fence.

Southampton v/s Tottenham. I just read that Tim Sherwood wants to be permanent manager of Spurs. Who? I mean, the guy has no managerial experience and has only won one piece of silverware in his career. Spurs are a team in disarray at the moment, and their mid-week loss at home to West Ham proves that unless they get the right, world-class manager at the helm as soon as possible, their season will turn for the worst. I thought they would be a top 6 team this year but unless they come up with someone good quick, they might not even get a European spot. The Saints' form hasn't been brilliant of late, but they have a good record at home and will be keen to pounce on a wounded opponent. The hosts are definitely a draw-no-bet recommendation.

Arsenal v/s Chelsea. I think the result can go any way, but I'd rather watch than have a punt on this one. Mourinho has a great record against Wenger teams, particularly as he has a knack of shackling teams that play offensive football. This is a 6-pointer game for both, and it won't be surprising if it ends in a draw.

Win: Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Crystal Palace, Stoke, Southampton

EPL Week 16

Back after a short early break, the mind definitely freshened-up and ready to tackle the rumble and tumble of festive December football.

Man City v/s Arsenal. This is a 6-pointer, no doubt, with the 2 main contenders for the title according to the bookies. City are a formidable fortress at home but if there is team that can breach them, it is the Gunners. The mid-week away win at Bayern Munich could be the turning point of the Citizens' season because there is no doubt that it will have given them a huge confidence boost with the know-how that they went to beat the best team in the world at the moment. They have been stuttering in their EPL away games but a win in Munich can eliminate the mental barriers. On the other hand, Arsenal lost at Napoli in the UCL but still secured qualification. My concern is not the defeat in itself but rather the exertions they had to put in the game, especially having had to play with 10 men with the sending off of Arteta. So from a fitness point of view, the advantage is clearly with Man City and that tips the balance for me to the hosts. I see a draw-no-bet on the hosts as a safe and value selection.

Chelsea v/s Crystal Palace. Not sure which type of Chelsea team will show up on the day but I cannot see Mourinho's unbeaten home record being wrecked by the Eagles. The Blues should win this to keep their title hopes live.

Everton v/s Fulham. This should end in a home win. The Toffees have been impressive in winning at Old Trafford and securing a draw at Arsenal. This is a team growing in confidence under a good manager in Martinez. Fulham won last week but they can expect an entirely different proposition at Goodison Park. Everton is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Man Utd. The bad news keep on piling for Man Utd as RVP will be missing a month because of a thigh injury. If they did not have Rooney in front, they would be in a worse situation than they are. They should however, have too much quality for the Villains who struggle to come up with good consistent performances week-in, week-out. Benteke is a non-factor at the moment. The selection is Man Utd as a draw-no-bet.

Tottenham v/s Liverpool. Spurs seem to be righting the ship after their calamitous 6-goal drubbing at the Etihaad a few weeks ago. Soldado scored a hat-trick in the Europa on Thursday and this could be the match he needed to finally start scoring on a regular basis. Liverpool have been rocked this week of the absence of Gerrard for more than a month. This is bad news for the Kops who are already missing striker Sturridge. That leaves Suarez as the only plausible man apt to score in this team. December could be a make or break month for Rodgers and his team. I see value going with Spurs as a draw-no-bet here.

Win: Everton, Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham

EPL Week 14

My thoughts on some of the mid-week matches.

Arsenal v/s Hull. The visitors proved me wrong by beating Liverpool over the week-end. I don't think they will have another giant kill in the space of 4 days. Ozil seems to have waken up from his slight slumber in the last game and Ramsey is just unplayable at the moment. Should be a Gunners win.

Liverpool v/s Norwich. Whether it was a blip or it was a team badly missing Sturridge, but Liverpool were poor against Hull in their last match. To continue their UCL aspirations for a Top 4, they need to get maximum points against teams like Norwich. I think they will if Suarez can show he is as dangerous up-front without strike partner Sturridge. Should be worth going straight for the Kop win here.

Man Utd v/s Everton. Interesting match-up that pits Moyes against his old team. The Toffees are actually doing very well under Martinez and although they are going to miss Leighton Baines for a while, they are still a strong team to overcome without the England left-back. The Red Devils are on a good un-beaten run although they have dropped 4 crucial points in their last 2 games. I cannot see them lose this game and all indications are that they should win this in the end. Probably safest to go draw-no-bet with the hosts.

Southampton v/s Villa. The Saints will be missing goalkeeper Boruc for quite a while due to a broken hand. Their home record is pretty daunting and I expect them to overcome a Villa team that is average at best when Benteke is not scoring. At current odds, the hosts look good value as a win.

Swansea v/s Newcastle. The Magpies are running high and are in a surprise 6th position. I think the buck stops for them at Swansea this week. Although the Swans will be without Michu and Bony, they are still a quality side that can present challenges to any team  on their playground. I see Swansea as a strong draw-no-bet at current odds.

Fulham v/s Tottenham. I see a visitor win or draw here. New Fulham manager Meulensteen has proved a top coach at Man Utd but managing a team is an entirely different story. The side is poor and this is a good opportunity for Spurs to get back in the win column after some poor form of late. Their 2-2 draw against Man Utd will have brought back some good level of confidence to the side and I see them as a value draw-no-bet as well.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Swansea, Tottenham

EPL Week 13

It will not be surprising to see some of the leading teams lose points again this week-end, but I think that the results on overall, will be favourable to the big teams.

Aston Villa v/s Sunderland. I see a Villa win here although they are not the best team to have complete faith with. Benteke is just disappointing at the moment and the team needs him to start firing if they are to compete for the upper half of the table. Sunderland are just awful and are destined for a relegation scrap until the end. I see home comforts for the Villains, and a straight Win looks good value.

Hull v/s Liverpool. That should be 3 full points for the Kops and another bag of goals for the SAS strikeforce.

Chelsea v/s Southampton. The Saints can play spoilers here and Chelsea have a game on their hands. This match could go any result, so there is no certainty there.

Man City v/s Swansea. City are almost unbeatable at home and I cannot see a Swansea team that was in action and beaten in the Europa League in mid-week playing an upset. The Citizens should win this.

Everton v/s Stoke. I like the hosts as draw-no-bet here although they will be missing Baines. It will not be surprising to see the Potters steal a point but it looks far-fetched to see them get all three.

Norwich v/s Crystal Palace. I cannot see the Eagles getting 2 away wins in a row. Norwich have a good record at home and will be looking to maximize points at Carrow Road to offset their poor road record. Norwich is selected as a straight win.

Tottenham v/s Man Utd. It is staggering to see that Spurs have a -3 goal difference at this stage, thanks to their 0-6 drubbing against Man City last week. They are clearly a club in crisis and the pressure is on AVB to right the ship asap. On the other hand, the Red Devils are in ascending form and their mid-week demolition of Leverkusen in the UCL will have given the team huge confidence. I see it safe to have Man Utd as a draw-no-bet, but the value is to go for the outright Win with them.

Win: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Everton

EPL preview

Back from the bore of international breaks and to the resumption of an ever exciting EPL. Some thoughts on some of the matches:

Everton v/s Liverpool. The Merseyside Derby looks to produce fireworks and it would not be surprising if it ended up in a draw. The Toffees are enjoying a good spell under Martinez and will certainly have the benefit of home advantage. Liverpool will be relying on Suarez as usual and the fact that he has been rushed from international duty from the Southern Hemisphere is a concern regarding mental and physical sharpness for such an explosive game. The value is to have Everton as a draw-no-bet, in my opinion.

Arsenal v/s Southampton. The hosts will be all too aware that the Saints cannot be underestimated at any cost. Southampton have garnered points at Anfield and Old Trafford and can foil the best teams in the league. The Gunners will again count on the explosive duo of Ozil and Ramsey to make the difference. They will also benefit from the return of Walcott on the flanks. I think the Gunners will definitely get something out of the game and a confident draw-no-bet proposition as well.

Fulham v/s Swansea. The home side has been the major disappointment of the campaign so far. It remains to be seen whether the arrival of ex-coach Muelensteen will make the desired impact. Swansea have shown disappointing form of late and will be keen to end a run of 3 EPL games without a win. At current odds and with some element of risk, the visitors look good value as draw-no-bet.

Hull v/s Crystal Palace. Hull needs to get maximum points out of encounters of this sort if they are to survive relegation. They look for draws on their away travels but at home they will not get easier opponents than the manager-less Eagles. It might be close, but in the end, I see the Tigers getting full points. They are a Win selection.

Stoke v/s Sunderland. If ever there is a game that is to go goal-less or draw during the week-end, it's this one. If there is to be a winner, it could be any of them. To avoid or to play it as a draw.

Cardiff v/s Man Utd. Cardiff has scraped through a couple of wins at home thanks to goals from set-pieces. The Red Devils will have to ensure they disable the threats of dead ball situations to get away with 3 valuable points here. They must if they are to keep in touch with the league leaders and confirm the renaissance of the last couple of weeks. Rooney and RVP are in great form and although they might be a little short in central midfield, the Red Devils should have too much fire-power for the Welsh outfit. The visitors are a Win selection.

Win: Man Utd, Hull
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Everton

My views on some EPL games this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Cardiff. Finally a game that the Villains have a chance to get a few points and I expect Benteke to have a big game here. He's got near-misses in his previous matches but quality should prevail here. I see a Villa win with Benteke on the score-sheet.

Chelsea v/s WBA. It's Mourinho against his former No 2 Clarke. Got to go with Chelsea because they are so far invicible at home in the EPL with the Portuguese. WBA will go look for a point, so might be worth making it safe through a draw-no-bet.

Liverpool v/s Fulham. The visitors are woeful and their manager is under pressure of getting fired any time. I cannot see them win this. The S & S strikefore of Suarez and Sturridge will be certainly be hoping to enhance their goalscoring records. This should end in a Liverpool win.

Southampton v/s Hull. The Tigers are beset by injury problems at the moment but they are a well-organized unit that can make it hard for any team to break down. Southampton are on a good run and should make it 3 points, although an upset from the visitors should not be ruled out if they are taken too lightly by the hosts. Better go the safe route and go for a draw-no-bet with the Saints.

Swansea v/s Stoke. The hosts seem to be in a rut of form of late but I expect them to get back to winning ways as they welcome Stoke. At current odds, Swansea look good value for the win.

Man Utd v/s Arsenal. That's the big game of the week-end. Ramsey is just being amazing for the Gunners. I can't recall a midfielder being in such goal-scoring form for the Gunners; he's just a goal scoring machine at the moment. He could still score against the Devils but I don't think Arsenal will win this match. I see the hosts being pumped up and will be working their sleeves up so as not to concede a fourth defeat in the League. Moyes has a quite good record against Arsenal in his Evertonian days and knows the style required to foil the Gunners. The selection is for a draw-no-bet with Man Utd and a lay of Arsenal.


Win: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Swansea
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Southampton, Man Utd
Lay: Arsenal
To Score: Benteke

Breeders Cup 2013: 5 horses to follow

Although they've lost their lustre for the past few years, the Breeders Cup championship is still a great spectacle that regroups quality horses from Europe and the best that the USA can offer. Here are 5 horses it might be of benefit to follow.

#1 Wise Dan. Last year's horse of the year still looks formidable in the Turf Mile despite having lost his last race. It certainly looks as if this year's race is of lesser quality than last year's and Wise Dan looks a value selection at even odds. I can't see the main European runner Olympic Glory being a real danger as the bends of Santa Anita and the fast ground will be to his disadvantage. Wise Dan for the Win.

#2 The Fugue. Europe's best middle-distance filly should be very difficult to beat in the Turf. She was unlucky to meet traffic trouble last year and if she gets a free trip, she will certainly be in the whereabouts. She will relish the fast ground and with the connections being very bullish, she is a Win selection as well.

#3 Bobby's Kitten. This is the best "kitten" he's got,  in owner Ramsey's own words. The colorful owner obviously has had other smart kittens from his stallion Kitten's Joy and since this one is supposed to be the best of the lot, he's got to be considered. He won his last race impressively over 6 lengths and looks ready to fire another top performance. The European contingent is headed by Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini but I have a feeling that Bobby's Kitten has home advantage here. He looks good value for the Win.

#4 Romantica. Dank is the obvious big favourite given her dominating win at Arlington a few weeks back. But I rate Romantica from the Andre Fabre stable to be good enough to aspire for a top 3 spot here. The daughter of Banks Hills, herself a winner at the BC championships, will relish the fast ground, something that she has not always been getting in France. Fabre rarely makes the travel unless he sees a big opportunity and I think he's found one in the Filly & Mare Turf. Romantica is a Place selection.

#5 Declaration of War. Ever since Giant's Causeway came agonizingly close to hand Ballydoyle a first win in the Classic, the race they probably aspire the most, many of their superstars have failed on the dirt surface. DOW looks to be their best chance since GC since he's dirt-bred and has the profile to do well, being a strong galloper and the right tactical speed needed for American racing. This could finally be Ballydoyle's year when they bring home the Holy Grail. If he adheres to the surface as I believe he will, I see DOW being a major contender in America's most prestigious race. At current odds, DOW is a value Win selection.

Win: Wise Dan, The Fugue, Bobby's Kitten, Declaration of War
Place: Romantica

Football Preview

A couple of great match-ups dominate the EPL and La Liga this week-end. Chelsea and Man City, the 2 front-runners for the Premier League, at least from the bookies standpoint, clash at Stamford Bridge, while the El Clasico is the un-missable feature in Spain. Here are some picks.

Crystal Palace v/s Arsenal. There is no basis to back the Eagles here. They lost manager Halloway during the week and I can't see the caretaker manager making a marked difference to the squad, particularly that other managers are being publicly sought after. Arsenal lost against Dortmund in the Champions League and will be keen to resume their winning ways against lesser opposition. Arsenal is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Everton. I like the hosts' chances here with the possible return of Benteke in the starting eleven. Everton can be deemed lucky to have scraped past Hull last week and they are certainly a work in progress under Martinez. This could very well end up in a draw and I fancy to nick it if there is to be a winner. So, the Villains are a  draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool v/s West Brom. I can't believe Liverpool are near evens to land a top 4 spot and in the 9's to win the league. I say lay on both, because in my mind, they are not good enough to finish in the first 4. Granted, it's still early in the season, but the prices are attractive enough to lay at the moment. WBA's visit is a good occasion for the Kops to land another 3 points although if there is to be a shocking result this week-end, it could be with WBA taking the spoils. I'll avoid this one.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. This should end with a home win to get the Red Devils back on track in the league.

Tottenham v/s Hull. Spurs shouldn't take Hull for easy victims as the visitors are a good disciplined side that is hard to break down. I can't see the Tigers winning this but they will definitely battle to get at least a draw from the match. Spurs look to be safe draw-no-bet selection.

Chelsea v/s Man City. History has it that Mourinho has never lost an EPL game at Stamford Bridge. They are in good form and went to thrash Shalke in Germany during the week. Man City finally won on the road last Saturday but this is going to be one of their toughest visits of the season. This is a 6-pointer game and this game will probably be decided with a moment of genius or inattention from either side. With Mourinho's record, it's hard to go against Chelsea as hosts, so the Blues are a strong draw-no-bet selection at current odds.

Finally, the El Clasico in Spain is an intriguing one with the 2 giant clubs under the helm of new management. There is no doubt that Ancelotti and Martino are still working the kinks of their side and won't have their typical A-team. Neymar is still finding his feet at Barca and Bale is far from showing his real weapons at Madrid. Being the hosts and with the return of Messi, the Catalans hold a slight advantage and look good value with current draw-no-bet odds.

Win: Arsenal, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa

EPL Preview

Back to the grind of the EPL this week-end after the international break.

Newcastle v/s Liverpool. The Kops have a very good record going to Tyneside over the years and with their good start of the season under the belt, they must be high on confidence on Saturday's visit. Sturridge and Suarez arguably form the hottest strikeforce in the country at the moment. Unlike many, I don't think Liverpool are genuine title contenders this season but they can still pose problems to any team. Newcastle are a mid-table team at best and will rely on their French duo of Cabaye and Ben Arfa to create opportunities. At current odds, I like Liverpool's chances of a draw-no-bet.

Arsenal v/s Norwich. A lot of Arsenal's chances for a straight win will depend on Ozil's availability for this match. On current news, he seems to have recuperated from his mid-week injury playing for Germany. He is possibly the classiest midfielder in the league. If Ozil is on the team-sheet, I say go for a Gunners win.

Chelsea v/s Cardiff. That should be a straight win for the hosts.

Everton v/s Hull. Lukaku seems to be like a fish in water at Everton, in sharp contrast to his days at Stamford Bridge. This should end in a home win.

Man Utd v/s Southampton. This is going to be a tough one for the Red Devils. Soton are in awesome form and are no push overs. It will be interesting to see if newly-acclaimed wonder-kid Januzaj can confirm his spectacular debut and impose himself as the long-awaited maestro of the Man Utd midfield. At current odds, I believe the value is to have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Stoke v/s WBA. This promises to be a yawner. Not many goals in store and best to avoid.

Swansea v/s Sunderland. It so often happens that a team wins against the odds under a new manager, as the players give the extra effort to make first impressions to the new boss. I don't think it will happen for Sunderland under Poyet's first match in charge. Swansea are a draw-no-bet selection.

West Ham v/s Man City. I don't believe that Pellegrini has gotten the touch for Man City's visits so far. They've lost twice already on the road. This looks set to be a nail-biter and a draw could be the likely outcome. This could really end up in any result.


Win: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Man Utd, Swansea

Arc de Triomphe 2013 - The Revenge of Orfevre?

Sunday's Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the racing calendar for me and it looks set to be a fascinating renewal with some major contenders on the line. But the main question has to be with Orfevre, the Japanese mega-star and unlucky runner-up of last year's edition. To me, if the "Crazy Horse" is in top form and in the right frame of mind on the day, there will be no race; he has the potential to crush the field, he is that good.

Here are some of my thoughts on the main aspirants to the throne.

Orfevre. Much has been written about his heartbreak loss last year. Trainer Ikee somewhat gave closure to why he threw the race away this week. No, it was not a lack of stamina or a running out of gas as many speculated, since he accelerated and galloped away after the finish line. It was the flawed genius with his antics again. His prep Prix Foy win a few weeks ago looked convincing, allowing for the premise that he has retained his ability and might even be a better horse this year with an enhanced mental. This year, he has an ideal post and the soft ground will be of no detriment, unlike with some others. Unless he has an off-day and fails to fire, I cannot see him out of the first 3. He is head-and-shoulders the best horse in the race.

Treve. Unless she turns out to have Zarkava-like abilities, I cannot put her on a pedestal that many others are inclined to do. She is unbeaten in 4 and has looked dominant in the Prix Diane and Prix Vermeille but I have some reservations on the form book there. Soft ground won't be a problem to her but her very wide draw should be of concern to her backers. Orfevre easily overcame that issue last year but it won't be easy for a 3-year old filly running first time against males. I don't believe the switch of mount from Dettori to Jarnet will make a difference as she's won with the latter on 3 occasions. She is classy and can make the frame, but she's a definite lay in my books for the win.

Novellist. He rose to the top of the European middle-distance division by trouncing the King George in record-time. Then, he labored to win at Baden Baden prompting many questions about his real quality. Again here, my view is somewhat contrarian to most. While I cannot argue that he lowered the time scale by 2 seconds at Ascot, I've got to ask who he beat; Trading Leather, Universal, Hillstar are certainly not genuine Group 1 performers. Jockey Murtagh says he was impressed with the horse at Ascot and though I certainly respect his views on most matters, I've got to wonder whether his view is distorted by the fact that the facile win was against average opposition. At Baden Baden, his hard-fought win was dismissed as a prep for the Arc but it could very well be that he was either past his peak form or the race was a reflection of his true ability. Still, having won 9 out of 11 races and being a strong German-bred, he's got to be respected, but while he might be in the placings, he's another lay for the win for me.

Kizuna. He's a Japanese Derby winner by Deep Impact and won the Prix Niel by a nose. I have him several notches behind Orfevre at this point and his current odds are way too short. I am willing to lay him for both the win and placings.

Ruler of the World. The Derby winner looked an unlucky second to Kizuna in the Niel, having endured a torrid trip to the finish line. The main question is how good he really is? The form at Epsom is certainly  not transpiring very well and he could be just a good horse. The fact that stablemate Leaing Light has been supplemented indicates that connections must not be too confident either. He will have to benefit from exceptional circumstances to win this. I don't think he will make the frame.

Al Kazeem.  He will relish the soft ground but the extreme-wide draw killed most of his chances today. He is a solid top-class horse that has done well since the start of the season but he hasn't faced horses like this before. Certainly a big lay for the win at current odds

Intello. He's the big question mark of the race for me. There are doubts about his stamina based on his pedigree, being by a Danehill sprinter mare. He's definitely top drawer and if his class can carry him through, he will be a major player. The indications are strong that he was not initially prepared for the race and was destined for the major 8 to 10 furlong Group races where he's excelled. However, the flop of flag bearer Flintshire in the Niel probably prompted trainer Fabre to divert his course to the Arc. I cannot have him as a Win based on his preparation but it wouldn't surprised me if he finished in the frame.

Flintshire. He was the major disappointment of the Prix Niel where he was supposed to show his credentials as a major player in the Arc. It could be that the soft ground played to his disadvantage on the day but the ground will not get any better on Sunday. Trainer Fabre has opined that Intello is his best chance, so it's hard to side with this representative of Juddmonte stables.

Leading Light. St Leger winner but I doubt he is good enough to win this. Being by Montjeu and having been supplemented, he's got to be respected but I don't share the confidence of the connections. He's a big lay for me.

It's got to be Orfevre for me, with the hope that he shows his true best on Sunday. If he succeeds where every Japanese runner, including the mighty Deep Impact, has failed, you can expect the roof to come down with the staunch army of Japanese supporters at Longchamp. It could be an Arc for the ages and Orfevre carries the hope of a nation. The "Crazy Horse" can do it. For the placings, I will go with Novellist and Intello.


Win: Orfevre
Place: Novellist, Intello
Lay for Win: Kizuna, Al Kazeem, Treve, Novellist, Ruler of the World, Leading Light

UCL Round 2 Wednesday

A couple of recommendations on tonight's matches.

Shakhtar v/s Man Utd. I think Man Utd are in for a tough one tonight. The Ukrainian outfits are a strong team and they will be like hungry wolves on a wounded prey as the Red Devils are reeling at the moment. Their poor show against WBA at Old Trafford shows that they are nowhere playing as a confident team yet. This match could very well end up in a draw and I definitely cannot see the hosts losing this one. They represent good draw-no-bet, and if one fancies a long flutter, I see them finishing top of this group in the end.

Real Madrid v/s Copenhagen. This is going to be a straight win for the hosts, eyes wide shut.

Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Shakhtar

UCL Round 2

Here are some of my views on a few of  today's UCL matches.

Basel v/s Shalke. The Swiss outfit were quite impressive coming out deserved winners at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago. They must have a great chance against the struggling Germans who are in a precarious bottom part of the table in the Bundesliga. I like Basel at market draw-no-bet odds and that is the selection.

Stueaua Bucharest v/s Chelsea. I cannot fathom the Blues not going through in this group and after their shocking loss in the opening round, they must be going out for the all-out win here. Nothing other than 3 invaluable points will do and I strongly feel that's what they will get out of there.

Porto v/s Atletico Madrid. The Spaniards will feel invincible after taking the scalp of bitter rivals Real Madrid at the Bernabeu over the week-end. Truly, this Atletico team is dangerous to any opposition at the moment. Porto are solid at home but there is a feeling that they are not top-notch. I strongly value the visitors' odds as draw-no-bet.

Win: Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Basel, Atletico Madrid

European Week-end Football

Some of my thoughts on this week-end's matches.

Tottenham v/s Chelsea. The reunion of Mourinho and ex-staffer Villas-Boas. The press might have tried, but no-one knows the level of break-down between the 2 managers. Maybe they'll give a better clue during the pre-match or post-match handshakes. On the pitch, I think Chelsea will be in for a torrid time. Spurs are no slouch at home and given their level of form, I like their chances to get at least a point out of this game. They are the draw-no-bet selection of this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Man City. The hosts will be missing their key weapon Benteke for the next few games and that is not a good omen for them. Man City are currently firing on all cylinders and their demolition of neighbours Man Utd last week-end will have given a mighty spring in their step. They should get out of Villa Park with full points. Straight win for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Cardiff. It's been a up and down start of the season so far for the Cottagers and they will relish the visit of Cardiff for some much-needed 3 points. Berbatov and Bent can do serious damage on their best day, and I reckon the hosts represent great value for the win at current odds here.

Man Utd v/s West Brom. The probability of WBA coming out of Old Trafford looks bleak. Now that their matches against the big runs are over, this could be the start of a winning run for the Red Devils. They should win this, particularly with RVP back.

Southampton v/s Crystal Palace. Soton are a tough team to break down at home and there is no reason to believe that Palace will reverse poor opposition records at the St Mary's. The hosts should build on last Saturday's impressive win at Anfield and get the 3 points.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. The Black Cats are a team in disarray. Obviously, Di Canio was never going to be a long-term fit. Suarez and Sturridge will relish this clash; I cannot see Liverpool getting beaten in this one. I see value backing them with a straight win.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona and Valencia. I like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet against Sevilla.

In the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern should get full points and continue their duel at the top of the table.

Win: Man City, Fulham, Man Utd, Southampton, Liverpool, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Sociedad.