Friday, May 4, 2012

Crowning moment

This week-end will determine the eventual winner of the EPL. If Man City win at Newcastle, they'll win it. Anything else will lead to a Man Utd win, I believe. Man City holds the cards here and have their destiny in their hands. Can they win it at St James park where Newcastle has proved so difficult to overcome this season? I have a feeling they won't and will have to settle for 1 point at most.

Man Utd will beat Swansea at home, no doubt. There should be many goals in that one. Man Utd is a recommended as a straight win.

The 2000 Guineas will be the center of attention for racegoers. I persist in thinking that Camelot is not tailor-made for the mile and will be much better over longer distances as his pedigree suggests. He's a very good horse no doubt, but I think he's vulnerable at the distance and he is definitely way too short at his current price. He's a lay in my books. I believe his stablemate Power and John Oxx's Born To Sea are the value punts of the race. There are stamina doubts regarding Power, particularly if the grounds gets worse than soft. But if the conditions dry on race day, this battle-hardened colt has shown enough potential in his 2-year old season to be among the contenders. For punters looking for value, he looks like a good Place punt.

Born To Sea looks destined for great things like his half-brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars. His pedigree suggests that he will have more speed than these two, and a mile should be right up his alley. Like Power, he should be more convenienced with drier track conditions. At his current price, he looks worthy of a Place punt and this is the recommendation.

There are quite a few dark horses in the race such as french raiders Abtaal and French Fifteen. They could very well emulate Makfi and trump them all. But I think that Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher have been over-cooked in their trial wins and are lays at the same level as Camelot.

This year's Kentucky Derby looks the most competitive it's been for years. I don't think Daddy Long Legs, the Coolmore representative has much of a chance here, unless he's turned out to be a superstar. First post and having flopped on his only start on dirt, do not provide confidence to the son of Scat Daddy. I think Bodemeister and Union Rags are sitting on big races here. Bodemeister was by far the most impressive in the prep races and although he's only had 4 races to date, he's been battle-hardened this year. Union Rags was mighty impressive before his disappointing run in the Florida Derby. I don't subscribe to the majority notion that his awful trip was the cause of his defeat. I think his trip wasn't as bad as perceived and that he was well-beaten on the day. Maybe he was under-cooked on the day, but he looks in prime condition for Saturday's race. Bodemeister looks the least vulnerable of the lot and he is a Place selection.

Win: Man Utd.
Place: Born To Sea, Bodemeister

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