Thursday, November 3, 2011

A Strong Lay

Bayern, Man Utd won as expected while Benfica drew with Basle for a voided punt.

A few developments in horse racing that of worthy of note in the past days. First, the news that Born To Sea had torn a muscle in his surprise defeat to Nephrite last Sunday. If that injury hampered the son of Urban Sea in any way, then there's hope that his defeat wasn't due to a lack of talent; he might still be able to give justice to the high opinion of him by the racing world, primarily due to his regal pedigree. After Sunday, his stock had taken a beating and his ante-post odds for next year's Guineas shot up from 6's to the current 14's. While I am not a fan of such markets, serious ante-post punters would be hard-pressed to find better value and might want a crack; if he stays healthy, this horse can become a serious miler next year, in my opinion.

The Breeders Cup starts on Friday with a very competitive card, but the main races of interest are really run on Saturday. At this point, I am at a loss as to why there is a such a strong interest in Strong Suit in the BC Mile. He's got the poorest of draws, he's far from a proven Group 1 winner, he's unproven on the 2-turn track, and he's going to encounter mighty Goldikova. To top it all, he was unable to train properly today along with some other English raiders, resulting in the top-headline drama between the track officials and some English trainers. To me, Strong Suit is a big lay for the Win. Goldikova will certainly beat him in any match-bet, in my opinion. I will wait for tomorrow's events to draw confirmation on all this, but I really think opposing the Hannon star would be rewarding on Saturday.

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