Euro 2016 - Belgium in the big leagues

The first heavyweight clash of the Euros pits the always dangerous Italians against the uber-talented Belgians in the Group E of Death. Belgium beware; Italy don't have a superstar player, yet they always make it difficult for any team to overcome them. The classic Italian scenario relies on their solid defence to demoralize the opposition and wait for the opportune moment to deliver the knock-out blow at the other end.

Belgium are among the favourites in these Euros because of their golden generation of players. On paper, this team has no rival in Europe, let alone in the world. They don't  have 1 maestro but 2 in the form of Hazard and de Bruyne. The only blip for this team is that they will miss their defensive rock and captain Kompany at the back.

If this is going to be a tactical affair, then the Italians have the edge, no doubt. It is inevitable that Belgium will hold much of the ball possession but the question will be whether they can open up the Italian defence and translate that into goals.Italy usually relish these types of encounters where they are not expected to run the play, sit back and soak the pressure and wait for the wave of attacks to crumble one after the other. Counter-attacks will present themselves for them to make the difference at the other end.

These 2 teams are very balanced and I like the idea of a draw here that would leave intact the chances of both teams to go through. Ireland and Sweden will present better opportunities for both teams to bag full points and they will probably play this one out with the utmost caution.

Ireland and Sweden look evenly-matched and even though Ibrahimovic looms large for the Scandinavians, Ireland are very well guided by coach O'Neill and look more on the upside; they can very well bag the 3 points against a yellow team that looks well past its best.

In Group D, the Czech Republic definitely present a clear danger to a Spanish team in search of some form. Spain are no certainties like a few years back. Tiki-taka football no longer reigns supreme.

Draw: Belgium v/s Italy.

Euro 2016 - Germany to set the tempo

Big guns Germany will start as deserved heavy favourites against Ukraine and it would be a major surprise if they don't win this encounter. Coach Low has been tinkering with his formations of late, which might very well explain the not-so-sparkling recent results. However, the Germans take no prisoners once the major hostilities start and it will be shocking if they don't finish first of Group C. Ukraine don't have Germany's pedigree or the beat to beat them. I expect a strong showing and easy win for Muller and company.

The match between Poland and Northern Ireland looks tight and it would be no surprise if this match were settled by the odd goal. Same for evenly-matched Turkey and Croatia and I have a small preference for the Turks.

Win: Germany

Euro 2016 - England to the test

England need to make a strong showing against Russia to show that they are real contenders for the overall win. So often they have looked dominant in the qualifying stages only to peter out when during the tournament. Russia are no push-overs but if the Lions play to their potential, they should have enough fire power to win this match. The cause for concern for England is really their defence which lacks a real world-class rock. The Russians might not have a striker to worry them but the other major teams definitely will. Unless they produce a dismal showing (which by the way is not entirely impossible), England should beat the Russians.

Finally Wales are in a major tournament. Thanks to Bale. Wales' chances all rely on the Real Madrid star; if he performs, they can win. Without him, they are nothing. Slovakia is certainly within their grasp if Bale can run the circus. The Slovaks have shown their intent by shocking the world in beating Germany in a friendly a couple of weeks back; they lack a true star but they can hold their own against the Welsh. Possibly a draw in the offing in this one.

Switzerland against Albania is an interesting one as the origin of many in the Albanian team come from Switzerland. History will be made by pitching the Xhaka brothers playing for opposing teams. On paper, the Swiss should prevail but it actually won't be a shock if Albania, the minnows of the tournament, get something out of this match.

Win: England

Euro 2016 - France in a sweet spot

Here we go, Euro 2016 is here! This is a wide-open affair with several teams particularly aspiring to the trophy. But if we are to be cynical, we could look at things through different angles; England are fancied again but will flop as usual, probably in a penalty shoot-out yet again! France will probably win because they've won the last 2 times they hosted a big tournament (Euro 1984, WC 1998). But as others would say, everyone plays football, and in the end it's the Germans who win. Add to the mix the uber-talented Belgians and the complex Spaniards, this tournament promises to be well worth the look.

France has seemingly inherited an easy group with the likes of Romania, Switzerland and Albania. The French have flattered to deceive and disappoint in recent Euros and World Cups amidst so-called easy groups as well, but this squad looks an entirely different matter. For one, it is very talented with the likes of Griezman, Pogba, Payet and Martial to name a few. They are a strong and well-guided team under coach Deschamps. They will pass the group stage for sure. The first match against the Romanians will give a clue as to the health and potential of this team and I think they will pass it with flying colors.

Romania will battle Switzerland for second place. The Romanians are not in particularly great form having only won 2 of their last 6 matches. They have a poor historical record against the French and it's hard to see them causing an upset in the first match. Although they are a coherent team, they certainly miss a great playmakter a la Hagi to make a difference at this level.

The hosts should comfortably take this first match and get the cobwebs off.

Win: France

UCL Final 2016. Atletico's moment to shine

I really think the market has it wrong. Big time. Value punters must just be relishing at the prospect of backing big underdogs Atletico Madrid in their UCL final showdown against perennial foes Real Madrid. I believe they are making the right call.

Real Madrid will be favorites on account that they have in Ronaldo and Bale, two of the best three players on the planet. That's the ONLY credible point in their favour. Either of these two can turn a game upside down at any moment. But that's where the buck stops if you're looking for more positives. The notion that the UCL "belongs" to Real because they have won it a record 10 times is just rubbish. The past has zero incidence on the day contrary to what can be read on the sport pages.
These will also mention that the UCL pumps the Real players more than any other team. Another rubbish. The players in white have given their all to win the league as well only to fall just short to long-time leaders Barcelona. For sure, they would have relished beating their bitter rivals for the league title.

There are many reasons to side with Atletico. First, they played Real 10 times since their ill-fated UCL final loss to the same rivals a couple of years ago. They won 4 of these matches and only lost once. So, if there is to be a mental edge here, it's with Simeone's team. Talking of a mental blockage because of a UCL final two years ago holds little water; the teams are comprised of new players and if anything, the Atletico ones will be the most motivated.

Above all, what I think is Atletico's best asset is its manager, Diego Simeone. The results have proven over the past years that he knows how to prepare and win finals. Sure, the UCL loss was a dagger in this almost impeccable record, but let's not forget that were if not for Real's rather fortuitous goal from a corner in injury time. Atletico would have won its first UCL final. As they say, it's a game of inches (in this case, of seconds). Simeone has won the Europa Cup and Super Cup among others but what stands out for me was the Copa del Rey he won a few years back against Mourinho's Real. The Special One had never lost a final before and for Simeone to win the Cup in the rival's den was the real special achievement. Simeone will get his team to over-achieve for one match. The same thing cannot be said of the still-unproven Zidane.

Real is comprised of many stars. Atletico has only a real one in Griezman but they play as a team at all times. They beat Barcelona and Bayern because they organization and team spirit is second to none. Add to this a manager that prepares for a match like no other, you have the recipe for success that has been the Atletico story for the past few years now. It seems their time has arrived and at their current odds, must be one of the juiciest underdogs out there.

Win UCL: Atletico Madrid

EPL 2015/16 - Week 38

Arsenal v/s Aston Villa - Home win
Chelsea v/s Leicester - Draw
Everton v/s Norwich - Draw
Man Utd v/s Bournemouth - Home win
Newcastle v/s Tottenham - Draw
Southampton v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Stoke v/s West Ham - Home win
Swansea v/s Man City - Home win
Watford v/s Sunderland - Draw
WBA v/s Liverpool - Home win

So the EPL season ends this Sunday with Leicester coming out as the shocking crowning champions. People talk of a Black Swan being a highly unforeseen event in the financial world; the Foxes win was much more than a massive Black Swan. What they have achieved is unprecedented and it would take some feat for another team to top that.

Many of the Sunday's fixtures are skewed because there is not much to play for. Which international playing in the upcoming Euros will risk injury by giving 110% in a meaningless match? The only meaningful matches involve the Manchester teams vying for the 4th and final UCL spot. It is almost a certainty that Man Utd will defeat Bournemouth. I cannot see the result of this match going otherwise. However, the Red Devils will have to count on neighbours City losing at Swansea. This is not as improbable as it looks as the Citizens have a dreadful road record. Swansea have been playing spoilers of late and getting a result is certainly not beyond their means; this team seems to play better when there is not much at stake or when they are under-valued underdogs. I think they will outright win or get at least a point from this match, which will give Man Utd the final UCL spot.

I see easy wins for Arsenal and Southampton as well.

This has been one of the most exciting EPL seasons ever, and hope that you enjoyed the weekly musings. Thanks for tuning in and all the feedback. In the upcoming months, I will focus on the major races as well as the Euros, before the start of 2016/2017 season. Have a great Summer and stay tuned!

EPL 2015/16 - Week 37

Norwich v/s Man Utd - Away win
Bournemouth v/s WBA - Draw
Aston Villa v/s Newcastle - Away win
Crystal Palace v/s Stoke - Home win
Sunderland v/s Chelsea - Home win
West Ham v/s Swansea - Home win
Leicester v/s Everton - Home win
Tottenham v/s Southampton - Draw
Liverpool v/s Watford - Draw
Man City v/s Arsenal - Draw

Who would have imagined before the start of 2016 that Crystal Palace would be deeply entrenched just above the relegation zone? They were sitting pretty in the top 10 and challenging for a top 6 finish. Then striker Bolasie got injured early in the new year and the wheels completely unraveled for the Eagles. To salvage this rotten season, Pardew's men have the FA Cup final to look forward to but they need to get into some form in order to upset Man Utd at Wembley. Visitors Stoke have nothing to play for and have been on a nonchalant sort of form in the past weeks. This is why I think that the home team will have the greater motivation for a win and should edge this encounter given all the key players will be available.

West Ham are still in for a Top 4 shout and they have the potential to win their remaining 3 matches. Their easiest encounter will be Saturday's visitors Swansea, yet another team with nothing to play for. Whether they make the last UCL spot or not, the Hammers can consider this season to have been a successful one. Bilic has given this team an identity and the team is playing with full confidence behind the likes of Payet and Noble. Here again, the extra motivation is on their side and they should successfully make home advantage pay with another win.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 36

Everton v/s Bournemouth - Home win
Newcastle v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Stoke v/s Sunderland - Away win
Watford v/s Aston Villa - Home win
WBA v/s West Ham - Away win
Arsenal v/s Norwich - Home win
Swansea v/s Liverpool - Home win
Man Utd v/s Leicester - Draw
Southampton v/s Man City - Home win
Chelsea v/s Spurs - Draw

Anyone out there still thinking that Leicester won't be champions? I think the football world has come to the evidence that the Foxes won't be denied; it really will be one of the greatest feats in the history of football. It's not a question where the minnows stunned some heavily-favoured team in a single match; they've been crushing the league for a good while now. Really deserving of winning the lot.

That said, I think they will go get a result at Old Trafford. The mood in the Red Devils camp will surely be up after winning their trip to the FA Cup final. They are still fighting for a UCL spot and don't have much margin for error. However, this Leicester team is resilient and will definitely have chances on the counter-attack against a team that relies all too well on ball possession. I can see the visitors either winning or drawing this match, so a draw-no-bet on them at current market prices looks great value.

I think Southampton have a great card to play against visiting Man City. Although the Citizens badly need the full points to secure a UCL spot, they will also have their eyes and minds on their pending trip to Madrid for the UCL semi-final return leg. Their chances to reach the final are live after a good 0-0 at home. So it will not be surprising if Pellegrini rotates his squad for Sunday's match. Southampton are on a good run and I've always said that Koeman knows how to prepare his teams against good opposition. I think the Saints can win this, and if they don't, it will surely end up in a draw match.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 35

Man City v/s Stoke - Home win
Bournemouth v/s Chelsea - Draw
Aston Villa v/s Southampton - Away win
Liverpool v/s Newcastle - Home win
Sunderland v/s Arsenal - Home win
Leicester v/s Swansea - Home win
Tottenham v/s West Brom - Home win

It is no secret that how well Leicester deal with the loss of superstar striker Vardy for the next 2 matches will determine their chances of title glory. Vardy not only scores goals, he also opens up defences with his pace. Ranieri does not really have another similar player up front with Okazaki and Ulloa not pacy-types. So, the Foxes will have to alter their usual game plan in their next couple of matches. Swansea have nothing to play for but they are pesky opponents. They definitely have the capability of spoiling the home party. With Vardy, a Leicester win would have been very probable. Without him, the Foxes will still prove difficult to break down but they need to get the odd goal to make the difference. Many will look to Mahrez to provide the inspiration and although the Algerian has been quiet in the last few matches, he has the quality to break down the visitors. I think the home team will win this match by the minimum score.

For a value punt, I am looking no further than Sunderland hosting Arsenal. Wenger's men will go as heavy favourites with Alexis Sanchez in red-hot form. But this is an Allardyce-Wenger matchup and the Sunderland manager will relish breaking the flow of the Gunners' play as usual. Sunderland have good form going into this match and they badly need the points as well to get out of their current relegation predicament. Arsenal will choke again, I think, and the home team will either draw or win this, so a draw-no-bet on them looks good value.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 34

Norwich v/s Sunderland - Home win
Everton v/s Southampton - Draw
Man Utd v/s Aston Villa - Home win
Newcastle v/s Swansea - Draw
West Brom v/s Watford - Home win
Chelsea v/s Man City - Home win
Bournemouth v/s Liverpool - Home win
Leicester v/s West Ham - Home win
Arsenal v/s Crystal Palace - Home win
Stoke v/s Tottenham - Away win

Man City are on an absolute high after making their way to the semi-final of the UCL at the expense of PSG in mid-week. Let's put it this way; the return of Belgian superstar De Bruyne has simply lifted this star-studded team to another level. The ex-Chelsea player is a joy to watch; he can make incisive passes as well as score. It is no coincidence that Man City lost pace in the title run-in at the time of his prolonged injury setback. Since his return, he's bagged in important goals and the Citizens definitely need him in their UCL conquest and also for the run-in for the 4th vital EPL spot.

Chelsea definitely will be looking to play spoilers. They have been a transformed team under Hiddink and are a threat to any team. They will have several players back from injury and have the edge fitness-wise as they were idle during the week. I see a case of Man City players short of lasting the full 90 minutes of a high-tempo game and also suffering from their mid-week hangover.  City have shown limits on their travels and even having De Bryune in their ranks might not be enough against the Blues at Stamford Bridge. The hosts just won't lose this one.

Leicester are almost there. West Ham are a tough team to play against but they had a tough FA Cup match against Man Utd on Wednesday. I can't see many goals in this one but it's home advantage to the Foxes who can as ever rely on a stingy defence and one of Vardy or Mahrez to make the difference up front. The home team should just edge this.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 33

West Ham v/s Arsenal - Draw

Aston Villa v/s Bournemouth - Away win

Crystal Palace v/s Norwich - Home win

Southampton v/s Newcastle - Home win

Swansea v/s Chelsea - Home win

Watford v/s Everton - Away win

Man City v/s West Brom - Home win

Sunderland v/s Leicester - Draw

Liverpool v/s Stoke - Draw

Tottenham v/s Man Utd - Home win

I am bullish on quite a few home selections this week. I think Crystal Palace will finally manage a win after their oh-so-long drought, and beat relegation-doomed Norwich. If the Eagles can't beat the Canaries at home, then they deserve to go down as well!

I also think that Southampton will easily beat Newcastle. There is a difference in class between the 2 clubs and I expect Koeman to come up on top after against his continental adversary Benitez. The Saints have been riding some good form lately and are pushing for a wishful top-4 finish, while Benitez is still trying to figure out the mess on Tyneside.

Swansea have a card to play against a Chelsea team that will be missing many regulars. At market prices, the home team are value to snatch at least a draw or even better still, a home win. I just don't see them losing this encounter.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 32

Aston Villa v/s Chelsea - Away win
Bournemouth v/s Man City - Away win
Arsenal v/s Watford - Home win
Norwich v/s Newcastle - Home win
Stoke v/s Swansea - Home win
Sunderland v/s WBA - Home win
West Ham v/s Crystal Palace - Away win
Liverpool v/s Spurs - Draw
Leicester v/s Southampton - Draw
Man Utd v/s Everton - Draw

Arsenal are in no position to lose points if they are to keep their slim hopes of winning the league. They must beat the likes of Watford at home. The visitors seem to have plateau-ed with main striker Ighalo drawing consistently blanks of late. The Gunners should have too much firepower and bag the all-important 3 points.

I really like Stoke's chances at home to Swansea. Mark Hughes' team are always solid at home although they can throw the odd dull performance. Swansea are pretty much safe from relegation and don't have much to play for; they are really seeing out their under-performing season and gear up for next year. On the other hand, the Potters have a small chance of a European spot and will have the motivation to get the full points. I see the home team edging this.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 31

Everton v/s Arsenal - Draw
Chelsea v/s West Ham - Draw
Crystal Palace v/s Leicester - Draw
Watford v/s Stoke - Draw
West Brom v/s Norwich - Home win
Swansea v/s Aston Villa - Home win
Newcastle v/s Sunderland - Draw
Southampton v/s Liverpool - Home win
Man City v/s Man Utd - Home win
Tottenham v/s Bournemouth - Home win


Man City have disappointed of late in the title run-in. I think they can get right back into it against bitter rivals Utd. Both Manchester clubs have been involved in Europe this week, albeit with different outcomes. City proceeded to the quarter-finals of the UCL while Utd were dumped out by Liverpool. I just think there is a gulf between the 2 teams at the moment. Man City have proven erratic and irregular but once they are on song, they can score at any time. On the other hand, Man Utd seem to be a glued team that just isn't good enough for big pretenses at this level. In short, Van Gaal made a mess of this team. The FA Cup is their best hope this year and even that looks far-reaching. Man City to edge this one.

I think that Southampton have a card to play against Liverpool. They have enjoyed a good spell lately and will be the fitter team as the Kops had a tough mid-week match at Old Trafford. Koeman usually has his team in good tactical shape against supposedly leading teams and it would not be surprising that he pulls another trick out of the hat again. It might be worth going for an outright win or a draw-no-bet with the home team.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 30

Norwich v/s Man City - Away win
Bournemouth v/s Swansea - Home win
Stoke v/s Southampton - Draw
Aston Villa v/s Tottenham - Away win
Leicester v/s Newcastle - Home win

A restricted set of matches for this gameweek; it looks like league leaders Leicester and Spurs will widen the gap at the top. Spurs travel to sorry Villa for a massive chance to garner 3 important points. Kane and company got thrashed in Dortmund in mid-week but will find the drop in opponent class a more suitable proposition. Villa are going down I am certain and although their previous results after Europa league outings are patchy, Spurs cannot afford any drop of points here.

Newcastle are also in shambles and I don't believe the replacement of manager Mc Laren by Benitez today will improve them a lot in the short term (maybe even long term). Leicester will relish this clash and Vardy and Mahrez are in for a field day. Hardly any doubt about another straight home win for the Foxes.

EPL 2015/16 - Week 29

Tottenham v/s Arsenal - Draw
Chelsea v/s Stoke - Draw
Everton v/s West Ham - Home win
Man City v/s Aston Villa - Home win
Newcastle v/s Bournemouth - Away win
Southampton v/s Sunderland - Home win
Swansea v/s Norwich - Draw
Watford v/s Leicester - Draw
Crystal Palace v/s Liverpool - Home win
West Brom v/s Man Utd - Home win

Bournemouth looks like a great value punt on Saturday as they travel to St James Park and face a Newcastle team in disarray. Steve Mc Laren does not seem to find the formula to get his team out of their current rut and face the real prospect of relegation. Bournemouth are a well-organized team that have proven to be more at ease on their travels. I think they will either win or draw this, so a draw-no-bet at current market prices looks very appealing.

This week could prove pivotal in Arsenal's chances of winning the title. They lost a crucial match to Swansea and lost Petr Cech in the process. They just have trouble scoring at the moment and dearly miss a ruthless striker. Giroud is just not good enough. Their season will unravel completely if they lose the London Derby to new title favorites Spurs. The latter definitely are in a great position to pounce on any slip-up from league leaders Leicester as they have a deeper squad. This should be a close one at the Lane and I feel caution will be the premium word from both sides and a draw is a very likely prospect.