Dubai World Cup 2014

This week-end, focusing on the Dubai World Cup meeting, one of highlights of the racing calendar for me. The Flat season starts here.

Godolphin Mile. This looks to be a match-up between the 2 South African-trained horses Variety Club and Soft Falling Rain, and the Godolphin representative Shuruq. Variety Club, the dual South African champion was so impressive on his first outing on the Tapeta surface in Dubai that he was made one of the favourites for the World Cup on many books. Those hopes were somewhat tempered when he was surprisingly beaten by Shuruq on his last start, suggesting that he might not last the 10-furlong distance of the World Cup. The mile is up his alley. He's drawn poorly in stall 15. Shuruq flies on the Tapeta and has drawn ok in 10th. There is every reason to believe that she will reproduce the form that saw her overcome Variety Club a few weeks ago. She's a main contender. Soft Falling Rain won this race last year but there is a question mark on his fitness this year. He only has one race under his belt and could only come up 9th on his seasonal return. He will have to have improved by miles to win this, in my opinion. I see Shuruq running her race and in all eventuality, should be in the first three. I see her as a good Place prospect.

1. Shuruq 2. Variety Club 3. Soft Falling Rain

Dubai Gold Cup. After his demolition of many in the field in the trial for this race, Cavalryman will be a hot favourite to repeat in the race he won last year. Connections seem to be bullish and although he's now 6, he seems to be as green as ever. Star Empire from the de Kock stable always runs his honest race and should be in the thereabouts again. Songcraft is another honest horse but I have a feeling that the two-mile distance might be of a stretch to him.

1. Cavalryman 2. Star Empire 3. Songcraft

UAE Derby. Long John will probably be the shortest favourite of the meeting after his 2000 Guineas demonstration. He's mot probably the class of the race. One thing to note about the Appleby stable though is the poor showing of many of their runners on their second outing. It could very well be that Long John also succumbs to these poor statistics. I really like the looks of Ballydoyle's Giovanni Boldini in this race. He's definitely high-class after his brave second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. His trainer O'Brien has a fantastic record in this race and knows how to ready a 3-year old for the occasion. Minor mentions go to Emirates Flyer and Safety Check from Godolphin.

1. Giovanni Boldini 2. Long John. 3. Emirates Flyer

Al Quoz Sprint. Mike de kock usually gets a win under his belt on the big night and Shea Shea looks to be the one for him. The star sprinter from South Africa was impressive looking by winning on his seasonal appearance and looks as good as ever. He will drawn to his preferred stands rail and should be hard to beat. Sole Power should be in the thereabouts and Medicean Man seems best of the rest after winning his last 2 starts.

1. Shea Shea 2. Sole Power 3. Medicean Man

Golden Shaheen. The dark horse of this race is Sterling City, who has got some impressive form from Hong Kong. If he takes to the Tapeta, he will be a leading contender. Reynaldothewizard won this race last year and seems to have been primed for this race. He should be in the thereabouts at the finish. A minor mention goes to Russian Soul who seems to win on every alternate outing. If the stats prove correct again, he should be a major consideration for the win. This is a fascinating contest and it would not be surprising if the 3 above-mentioned contest the finish in any order.

1. Russian Soul 2. Sterling City 3. Reynaldothewizard

Dubai Duty Free. A wide-open and intriguing contest, of which I will pick 3. The obvious one is The Fugue which is easily the best horse in the race. The mare is just one of the best middle-distance performers in the business and on any given day should land this race no problem. The distance is somewhat on the short side but the big question mark is whether the downpour of the last few days will have softened the turf too much for her liking. If the ground runs fast as they expect it to be, then she has an outstanding chance of winning this. Dank is a  filly on the rise, having won the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf last year. The distance will suit her to perfection and she wants fast dry underfoot as well. Last but not least is Vercingetorix, who's unbeaten in 6 races. He seems to be doing his minimum to win his races and it's possible that we haven't seen the best of him yet. It's really a roll of the dice between the three.

1. Dank 2. Vercingetorix 3. The Fugue

Schema Classic. This promises to be a real classic with at least 4 names standing out. Magician was awesome in winning the Breeders Cup Turf last November and is for many, the horse to follow in British Flat racing this year. There is every indication that he is the best horse from the older brigade of Ballydoyle this year. Gentildonna came second in last year's race and has been one of the top fillies in the world at the distance. She was soundly beaten on her last start and although there are whisperings that she has lost a step compared to last year, she cannot be counted out yet. Denim and Ruby is a top filly from Japan as well, and she was nosed out of the Japan Cup by the same Gentildonna. She could be the one picking up the mantle from the great mare. Finally, Cirrus des Aigles always commands respect although he's now 8 and was beaten in 4th on his seasonal return 3 weeks ago. If all the vibes about Magician from connections are correct, this could be the start of a magical season for him.

1. Magician 2. Denim and Ruby 3. Gentildonna

Dubai World Cup. Another wide-open contest as there is no horse that stands out on talent or form. Almost every horse in the field has a chance to win. If I have to pick 3, then I will go for African Story, Sanshaawes and Akeed Mofeed. African Story was disappointing in the trial to this race by finishing a distant 8th. He lost all his chances by banging his head in the starting stalls. So his last race must be thrown out. Vibes from connections are positive, so if he runs his race on a surface that he clearly relishes, he should be at the finish. Sanshaawes impressed me by coming out second to Price Bishop in the same above-mentioned trial race. I did not expect him to run such a big race given he had only a week rest. He seems to love the Tapeta and if conditions of the race favour him, he could be the one to give Mike de Kock his first World Cup trophy. Finally, I pick Akeed Mofeed because he seems to fit the profile of winners of this race; tough, progressive and could very well adapt to the synthetic track, being by Dubawi. If all elements align properly for him during the race, he could spring a major surprise. That said, the rest of the field are no slouch and luck and race conditions will play a major factor in the outcome.

1. African Story 2. Sanshaawes 3. Akeed Mofeed

EPL mid-week matches

I believe tonight's Manchester Derby will have massive repercussions on the destiny of this year's EPL championship. If City win tonight, I think they'll go win the League. If they don't, they will still be favourites to land it all, but it would put Chelsea in an ideal position to pounce. Some thoughts on the mid-week matches.

Arsenal v/s Swansea. For the past few weeks, I've been interested to see if Swansea are relegation material. They are on a downward momentum and if results don't improve in the coming weeks, I see them as being a value and prime target for the drop. For long punters, this is definitely an angle to look at. Arsenal are coming off their catastrophic and predictable loss at Stamford Bridge and will be keen to redress the situation asap. As I see it, I think they have too many major injuries to contend with and will have to scrape though their matches, particularly against top teams. With Swansea being in a downward spiral, this is a match that Wenger will look for full points. I see Arsenal squeeze by the minimum of margins and have them as a Win.

Man Utd v/s Man City. Although City put 5 past Fulham over the week-end, most of the goals came from set-pieces and towards the end of the match. I cannot say that City are fully flowing at the moment, particularly with Aguero not playing. Man Utd have had encouraging results of late, but obviously it's impossible to have any kind of strong confidence in them given their stop-go season. I think this will in all likelihood, end up in a draw, or if there is to be a winner, it possibly will be on the visitors side. Man City is a draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Everton. Both teams needed last-minute goals to notch wins over the week-end. I anticipate a close match between the two, and again here the draw looks the likelier result.

West Ham v/s Hull. I think Allardyce have West Ham safe for this season and they have arguments for a Top 10 finish. Fans should be pleased of that as a couple of months ago, they looked near-certain for the drop. Hull still have work to do on that front but their home form seem to keep them afloat. I see the Hammers as a reasonably good draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool v/s Sunderland. If the Kops are to keep their title challenge, this is a must 3 points. I think their attack will do the business again and they are a Win selection.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool
Draw-no-bet: West Ham, Man City

EPL Week 31

Back in the fold after a nice rejuvenating break and ready to go for the fantastic sporting events ahead.
The EPL race looks as intriguing as ever and this week-end could see one of the main challengers going down for good; Arsenal face a near do-or-die scenario at Chelsea. Here are some of my thoughts on the upcoming matches.

Chelsea v/s Arsenal. I think this is the match that Chelsea boots away any remaining title hopes the Gunners are nurturing. The hosts are on an upward curve while Arsenal seem to be dragging their feet to the finish line. The problem with the Gunners are their thinning squad, with the likes of Walcott, Wilshere and Ozil all out. Although the Blues lost their last league game at Villa Park, I believe they were unlucky to be beaten by a fantastic but freak goal. They righted the ship by convincingly dispatching Galatasaray in the Champions League. I cannot see a Gunners win here and Chelsea are a strong draw-no-bet selection.

Cardiff v/s Liverpool. Ok, I admit it, Liverpool are title contenders. I thought their challenge would have petered out by now, but with S & S still clicking wonderfully, they will fancy their title charge until the end, hoping that Chelsea and Man City drop points. After all, they will hosts those 2 teams at Anfield in the remaining fixtures. I can't see a home win here and logically the Kops should take all the beating. The visitors are a Win selection.

Everton v/s Swansea. Everton left it late in injury time to win last week and I suspect their form is not as good as early in the season. They will relish facing a Swansea team that has lost its ways and could be pulled in a relegation fight if they cannot find a way to win. I don't see an away win here but am not overly convinced of a certain home win either. Everton is a draw-no-bet selection.

Hull v/s WBA. To stay in the top flight, Hull needs to win their home games against the likes of teams like West Brom. They have to make the most of their strong home record. West Brom won on the road last week but I can't see them repeating the same result, so Hull are a draw-no-bet selection.

Man City v/s Fulham. Even without Aguero, it's hard not to see a home win here.

Newcastle v/s Crystal Palace. Magpies boss Pardew will be on the stands and there is no confidence whatsoever to back Newcastle who have accumulated see-saw results following the loss of Cabaye during the January transfer window. I think this a match that Palace could steal the 3 points. Looking at the odds, I say cover the bases with Palace, and back them for the straight win and as a draw-no-bet. Or lay Newcastle.

Norwich v/s Sunderland. I feel the same with Sunderland as I do with Palace just above. I see them either winning or drawing this match.

West Ham v/s Man Utd. This game can go either way and much will depend on whether Man Utd have truly raised their game after beating Olympiakos in mid-week. I'm abstaining on this one.

Tottenham v/s Southampton. Staying in the clear on this one as well, although I think that the Saints can get a result there.

Villa v/s Stoke. Their spirits will have been raised after beating Chelsea at the same ground last week. Stoke are an inferior team to the Blues, so the Villains will be hoping for 3 vital points. I see the hosts as draw-no-bet selection.

Win: Liverpool, Man City, Crystal Palace, Sunderland
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Everton, Hull, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Aston Villa

EPL Week 27

My selections after studying some of this week-end's matches.

Liverpool v/s Swansea. Home Win. This should be a stroll in the park for the hosts. Swansea are coming after a tough mid-week European game against Napoli and will need all their fresh legs to contain the potent Kop offence. There are still huge question marks of the visitors under need manager Monk. On the other hand, Liverpool have put themselves in the title picture after some fantastic form of late. They are in with a shout although my feeling is that they will not be able to sustain their current form. I might be wrong. However, there is little or any doubt that they will win this match.

Chelsea v/s Everton. It would not be a shock if the Toffees were the first to inflict Mourinho his first home league defeat. The Toffees can give a game to anyone and with some luck they have been able to snatch crucial victories or draws such as at Old Trafford and the Emirates Stadium. They beat the Blues at home earlier in the season in a game which they took their chances to the full. However, I expect the hosts to try hard and avenge this defeat and keep on their title charge. This is crunch time and with the form of Hazard, I cannot see Chelsea beaten again by the Toffees. The hosts are a strong draw-no-bet selection.

Arsenal v/s Sunderland. I don't see the visitors winning this, just as I don't see Arsenal being a banker for the win. The Gunners are definitely looking for a breather for the moment and although they might very well end up with the win, I see Poyet's men making them work for it. The Gunners are a draw-no-bet selection.

Man City v/s Stoke. This should be a home win. The Citizens are missing Aguero massively but should have too much firepower for the visitors.

West Brom v/s Fulham. I always thought Fulham were destined for the drop but the appointment of Magath can change things. I think if Fulham are to have a win away from home, it might very well be in this game. Magath is an excellent coach who can turn the fortunes of the club around but much remains on how he can instill a winning confidence on his under-achieving team. For long punts, a Fulham Win should be well worth considering.

West Ham v/s Southampton. Both are in good form but class will probably tell in this one and I see Southampton getting at least the spoils out of this game. The visitors are a draw-no-bet selection.

Crystal Palace v/s Man Utd. The question here is how much good will the Dubai break have done to the Mancunians? Could this be the game they turn things around? I am not willing to put any confidence into this until they really show on the pitch that they mean business. The Eagles on the other hand are in splendid form at home and if Man Utd are to be as poor as in the past few weeks, their woes could deepen further in this match. It will be interesting to see how the match develops but it's better sitting on the fence than try to figure out the outcome.

Win: Liverpool, Man City
Draw-no-bet: Southampton, Arsenal, Chelsea
Win (Long punt): Fulham

EPL Week 26 (Wednesday)

Sorry, missed yesterday's matches due to a technical problem. But I had Chelsea winning, so nothing was missed there. Here are my selections for the matches starting in a couple of hours time.

Arsenal v/s Man Utd. Two teams having had a horrendous last week-end. I mentioned Arsenal were exposed against Liverpool and it showed clearly that they are in need of a breather. I will continue thinking that their second half of the season cannot be as good as the first. Man Utd were equally bad against Fulham. A Fergie team would have put at least 5 past the Cottagers. This is a team that is lacking in confidence, let alone luck. I don't think they will make the first 4. If they don't turnaround quick, they might not even make the first 6. The second half of the season however cannot be worse than the first half. I cannot see the Red Devils winning this game. Arsenal are a draw-no-bet selection.

Everton v/s Crystal Palace. If ever there is going to be a shocker this gameweek, I think that it will be in this one. However unlikely to most pundits, I think the Eagles can get something out of this match. If I were a risky long punter, the current odds of a Palace win would be very tempting. Even the draw-no-bet odds on the exchanges look appealing. I have a suspicion that Everton are lacking tempo at the moment and will go for the jugular and have CP as a long-shot Win selection.

Man City v/s Sunderland. Home win even without Aguero after the missteps of the past 2 weeks for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Liverpool. The visitors are the form team of the moment and it would be tough to go against them. They are a Win selection against a team that I believe is going down.


Win: Crystal Palace, Man City, Liverpool
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal

EPL Week 25

It remains to be seen how crucial Chelsea's win at the Etihaad will be in the standings at the end of the season. It has certainly stopped Man City from crushing the league at this point. This week-end is a top 4 clash between Arsenal and Liverpool.

Liverpool v/s Arsenal. I certainly don't think any of the two will win the league. The way I see it at this point, is that the Gunners will come out 3rd. Whether the Kops get the UCL 4th spot much depends on how good the comeback from Man Utd will be, if ever there is a comeback, that is. Were it not for their current injuries, I would have fancied the hosts to be strong contenders for the win. There's a team spirit and a will to win that flows in this Liverpool team that wasn't there in previous years. Manager Rodgers has simply been outstanding playing his cards so far and has the S & S strike duo running to full effect. However, it remains to be seen whether a lack of recruitment during the January trade window will have effects during the season run-in. The Gunners have the talent to beat any team any time, but there are still question marks as to their disposition when the chips are on the line, as in Saturday's match. They have a potent attacking force and much of their chances of winning will depend on how well they can contain Suarez and Sturridge. If they can keep them quiet, Ozil and Cazorla can create damage on the other side of the pitch. It looks very much to be a battle of the wills that will win it and if there is to be a winner, I see the Reds just edging this one. It might very well end up in a high-scoring draw. So, the selection is Liverpool as a draw-no-bet.

Aston Villa v/s West Ham. The Villains have been shaping up well in the last few weeks and they are my confident selection for a home Win. I don't see West Ham parking the bus as against Chelsea a few weeks back as they will fancy their chances to go get a result.

Chelsea v/s Newcastle. Got to be a home Win. I cannot see a struggling Newcastle stopping an in-form, buoyant, and confident Blues team at the moment.

Crystal Palace v/s West Brom. It has been rewarding to side with Palace at home over the past weeks and I see the trend continue. They are solid at home and the Baggies are prone to be scored against. The Eagles are a draw-no-bet selection.

Norwich v/s Man City. Negredo and Dzeko were poor against Chelsea and missing Aguero is definitely a negative for the Citizens. The above duo usually are prolific against lesser opposition and I expect at least one of them to be on the score sheet in this game. City are a Win selection.

Southampton v/s Stoke. It looks like the Saints of old are back and they are a strong value Win selection. It tooks 2 incredible goals for the Potters to overcome Man Utd last week-end and I just don't fancy their luck prolong in this game.

Sunderland v/s Hull. The hosts are on the up and should get the critical 3 points against the struggling visitors. I am believer of the Poyet renaissance of the Black Cats and they will beat the drop in my estimate. Hull are struggling mightily on the road mainly due to their lack of firepower and are relying mainly on their home form for survival. Sunderland are a Win selection.

Tottenham v/s Everton. I have a feeling that the visitors will nick this but will sit on the fence on this one.

Man Utd v/s Fulham. If the Red Devils cannot beat Fulham at Old Trafford, then they should not even be talking of a Top 6 finish. In my books, Fulham are going down. This should be a home win with RVP, Rooney and Mata relishing a possible goals galore.

Win: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Southampton, Sunderland, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Crystal Palace

EPL Week 24

This week-end's fixtures look very even matched, so I won't be surprised if there are lots of draw results on the cards. Here are some of my views.

Newcastle v/s Sunderland. This northern derby will pit 2 teams with opposing momentum. Newcastle are looking for a new lease of life at the moment and the departure of Cabaye to PSG has been a big blow to their European aspirations. Sunderland are riding an upward wave since the arrival of Gus Poyet and I have a strong feeling that they will avoid relegation altogether. At current odds, they are a value draw-no-bet.

West Ham v/s Swansea. These are 2 awful teams really. There is no confidence whatsoever backing any of them and a draw looks the likeliest result. Avoid.

Cardiff v/s Norwich. The hosts have gotten to find back their ruthless form at home if they are to avoid relegation. New manager Solksjaer hasn't had the impact many expected and it remains to be seen if new recruits Fabio and Zaha can help him steer the sinking ship right. At current prices, it might be worth a punt to go for a straight Cardiff victory here, as the Canaries are poor on the road.

Everton v/s Aston Villa. I was surprised of the tame effort Martinez's team put in the derby at Liverpool. They will be without Lukaku for a few weeks. Villa are coming off a huge thriller of a win against WBA and they will definitely be causing problems to the hosts. The Villains are however an inconsistent bunch that are capable of the best and worst displays. For risk-takers, there is value going for a draw here.

Fulham v/s Southampton. Just my opinion, but an early assessment makes me think that the Cottagers will go down at the end of the season. Chances are that they will lose Berbatov to Monaco by today's transfer deadline. The Saints showed that they are not far from peak form by sharing the spoils with Arsenal in the previous game week. With the same kind of spirited display, they should be able to take at least a point from this travel. They are a strong draw-no-bet selection.

Hull v/s Tottenham. Could go either way. Avoiding.

Stoke v/s Man Utd. I mentioned last week that the only way is up for Man Utd, following the arrivals of Mata and the returns from injury of Rooney and RVP. I see them getting the 3 points here as they try to climb up the table. They are a Win selection.

WBA v/s Liverpool. While I was impressed with West Brom's attacking prowess at Villa Park on Wednesday, the same could not be same of their defence, which leaked 4 goals in the defeat. I can easily fathom Suarez and Sturridge relishing this contest. I think goals will abound and in the end, with their flying form, Liverpool should be at the right end of the result. The Kops are a value Win selection at current odds.

Man City v/s Chelsea. That's the most important game of the season at this point. A 6-pointer. The Citizens will be missing Aguero but they have so many other attacking weapons that they will not fret over his injury. Chelsea got stopped by West Ham last week and it would not be surprising if they fail to find the net again. Mourinho will have them ready for this game but mind games or mental strength might not be enough against the most potent attacking force in the world at the moment. I cannot see City lose this game and while in the end the spoils might be split, I see value going with the Citizens as a draw-no-bet.


Win: Cardiff, Man Utd, Liverpool
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Southampton, Man City
Draw: Everton/Aston Villa

EPL Week 23

The name all week, particularly for Man Utd fans, has been Mata, Mata, Mata. The arrival of the Spaniard is a game-changer; while it will be too late for their title charge this year, he will definitely be a huge asset in their hunt for 4th place( aka UCL spot) and in the coming years. Man Utd should have a much better second-half to the season with the coming of Mata and the returns of RVP and Rooney. Week 23 starts in a couple of hours, and here are my thoughts.

Man Utd v/s Cardiff. I said it above; the impending returns of RVP and Rooney, together with a playmaker like Mata gives Man Utd considerable attacking options. If these 3 can stay fit and play together, there is no doubt that the potency is their for them to open defences at will. I think Mata's arrival will have given the whole Mancunian squad a lift this week and they are definitely a confident Win selection against a struggling Cardiff side.

Norwich v/s Newcastle. The Magpies have just lost playmaker Cabaye to PSG and this does not bode well with them. The Frenchman was their main source of inspiration in midfield and I think they will mightily struggle to cope with his absence. Norwich can pounce here. I see the hosts edging this and they look to be a solid value Win bet.

Southampton v/s Arsenal. This is going to be a tough game for Arsenal. Soton are no push-overs at home and seem to be regaining some of their early-season form. It's my opinion only, but I think that Arsenal will not be able to cope with the pace that Man City and Chelsea are about to set at the top of the table. At current odds, I see the Gunners as big lays for the title as I confidently think that they will not be able to match up with the big 2 above. I see them dropping points in this match too. Soton is a value draw-no-bet proposition at current odds.

Swansea v/s Fulham. The hosts have been expensive to back for some time now. This could be the game that changes things for them. They need a big W and there are not many worse travelling teams than the Cottagers. If Laudrup's team cannot win this one, they should never be backed again this year. They are a Win selection for this match.

Crystal Palace v/s Hull. I believe CP will avoid the drop this year because manager Pulis has put in the expected tactical discipline in the team. That said, Hull is a danger on the road with their ability to score and close shop. Best to avoid, although I think that CP might edge this one.

Liverpool v/s Everton. Both are rocked by injuries and both are fighting for 4th place. This looks set to be a tight encounter and if there is to be a winner, it should come from the home side. So, the Kops are a draw-no-bet selection.

Chelsea v/s West Ham. Eyes closed, this will be a Blues win.

Sunderland v/s Stoke. This Sunderland team has a resilience in it. It can make dramatic come-backs and can score against the most rigid defence. It will have had a massive boost by going to win Carling Cup final qualification at Old Trafford last week. I like their chances as a draw-no-bet against an average Stoke team.

Tottenham v/s Man City.
Ok, I'm not 100% behind the Tim Sherwood Spurs revolution yet. Maybe if they beat City... The Citizens are scoring at will but this will be a much difficult task than the likes of Watford, Cardiff or West Ham. It's impossible to oppose them in the attacking form they are at the moment. Spurs have their work cut out for them and will need to be ruthless in the chances they are going to create. Man City are a draw-no-bet selection.

Win: Man Utd, Swansea, Norwich
Draw-no-bet: Southampton, Liverpool, Sunderland, Man City

EPL Week 22

This gameweek is all about Man Utd's visit to Chelsea in what is a make-or-break game for the Red Devils. Lose, and they are definitely out of the title race.

Chelsea v/s Man Utd. The Mancunians are going to Stamford Bridge at the worst possible time. They are without their 2 best players in Rooney and RVP. They will meet a Chelsea team that is now playing under the Mourinho way, i.e, score and close shop. The odds are that the already-slim title chances that the Red Devils have, will be all but extinct after the match. It's hard to see them inflict a first home league defeat to Mourinho, but if there is a team that has the spirit to do it, it must be Man Utd. Of late, their away form has been solid when it counted. They put 5 at Leverkusen when everyone thought they would be in for a tough match. If they start firing with accuracy and balls go their way, they can get a result in any game. They've got to get the crucial first goal to have a chance of upsetting Chelsea. Lots of ifs. This match might very well end up in a draw, and looking at the market, my selection is a draw-no-bet on Chelsea.

Sunderland v/s Southampton. It's not been a rosy week for the Saints with the shock departure of their chairman and uncertainty concerning the future of their Argentine coach. Sunderland are a team on the up and if they get consistency in their results, they can avoid the drop. With momentum starting to swing their way, the Black Cats are a value draw-no-bet selection.

Arsenal v/s Fulham. Straight home win to keep the Gunners title aspirations on target.

Crystal Palace v/s Stoke. CP were beaten at White Hart Lane last week but the result could have been different if they had converted a first-half penalty. Stoke conceded 5 against Liverpool at the Brittania and will be keen to tighten things at the back to keep the hosts in check. I can hardly see CP lose this match, so I will go with them as a draw-no-bet as well.

Man City v/s Cardiff. It will be a Man City win, and the question is by how much.

Norwich v/s Hull. I see value in going with the visitors with a +1 goal advantage here (equal score is void). They are a well-organized, resilient team on the road, and will be fighting mightily for an all-important point.

West Ham v/s Newcastle. Best to avoid although I could see the Magpies ending their losing run.

Liverpool v/s Aston Villa. This should be a home win, and with the S & S strikeforce back, Liverpool can cause damage to any team.

Swansea v/s Tottenham. I see the poor run of the hosts ending here. At least, I don't think they'll lose that game and looking at current odds, they are a strong value draw-no-bet selection.

West Brom v/s Everton. Can go any result.

Win: Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Swansea.
+1 goal: Hull.

EPL Week 21

As the second half of the season gets under way, there hasn't been much transfer happenings to crow about. Certainly, the return of Clive Dempsey on a loan spell to Fulham will give the Cottagers a boost in their bid to avoid relegation. The managerial change at Cardiff with the arrival of Solksjaer gives them a fighting chance as well, I believe. Here are my thoughts on some this week-end's matches.

Hull v/s Chelsea. The Tigers bode strong form at home where they are hard to score against. Man Utd were able to put 3 past them but not many teams will be able to do that. Chelsea are in top form since the festive period and Mourinho seems to have finally settled on a system of play that gets them a result, no matter the way it is achieved. They have to be respected in the title race and are definitely a live contender. I think this game will be settled by a goal or less either way, and it looks more likely to be for the Blues. At current odds, they are a worthy draw-no-bet selection.

Cardiff v/s West Ham. The Hammers are in disarray and this game could spell the end of Sam Allardyce's tenure at their helm. On the other hand, the hosts have been buoyed by the appointment of new manager Solksjaer and they boast a strong record at home. I see Cardiff as a home win.

Everton v/s Norwich. The 2 teams are fighting at the polar ends of the table; Everton are striving for a Champions League spot while the Canaries are battling to avoid relegation. Lukaku can have a big game here. I see the Toffees getting the 3 points at the end of the 90 minutes.

Fulham v/s Sunderland. Could go either way. Abstaining.

Southampton v/s WBA. The Saints are in need to get their mojo back if they are to fight for a European spot. West Brom have gotten a new manager and as often is the case, the players will be keen to give their all to make the best first impression. I give the Saints a slight home field advantage here and have them as a draw-no-bet.

Tottenham v/s Crystal Palace. I'll be a convert of Tim Sherwood's management capabilities if they can convincingly beat the Eagles on Saturday. Spurs have done well under his tenure and if he can get the best out of his talented squad, they can go places. They need to beat a resilient Palace team to keep the momentum going and convince skeptics like me. Spurs are a draw-no-bet selection.

Man Utd v/s Swansea. The Red Devils are in the eye of a perfect storm with both Rooney and RVP out injured. Fortunately for them, Swansea are on a poor form themselves, although they beat and ousted their opponents at the same venue in the FA Cup last week-end. The Mancunians have to wake up at some point and stem the run of losses. I think in the end of 90 minutes, they will prevail. I see value in going straight for the home win, although it must have been expensive for punters to side with them lately.

Newcastle v/s Man City. I think Man City will win the title this year and they are in rude form. Going to St James Park is always a test and if they can get the full points, it will be a case of another major hurdle successfully negotiated. There is no doubt that the Magpies will make a game of this and it would be of no surprise if the honours are shared at the end. I'll stay on the fence on this one.

Stoke v/s Liverpool. This encounter usually ends in a drub 0-0 draw. With Suarez in top form, this might not be the case this year. Stoke are very strong at home but the Kops are no push-overs wherever they play. This can go any result.

Aston Villa v/s Arsenal. I think this is a must 3 points for the Gunners in their title charge and I think they will be able to avenge their opening-season loss to the Villains. The downside for the visitors is that they've lost Walcott for the season and while this is a major blow in the long run, they still have a big enough squad to overcome dismal Villa. I take the Gunners as the value Win of the week-end.


Win: Cardiff, Everton, Man Utd, Arsenal
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Southampton, Tottenham

EPL Week 20

Happy New Year 2014 everyone! Wishing everyone a successful coming year, in and outside the punting arena. Some thoughts on the New Year's EPL matches.

Swansea v/s Man City. Swansea are currently on a winless streak that is mostly due to a horrendous injury list that includes their star striker Michu. They have been missing an out-and-out striker that can poach crucial goals like the Spaniard used to last season. Man City have been doing a lot better on their travels of late after having compiled a very poor away record during the first months. They will be missing playmaker Silva but their squad is big enough to cope with any loss at any position. I think it might be worth playing it from a tight-match angle and have the visitors as a draw-no-bet and have Swansea with a +1 goal handicap (draw is void).

Arsenal v/s Cardiff. This should end in a home win no matter what resilience Cardiff can come up with.

Crystal Palace v/s Norwich. I am probably of a minority, but I seriously believe that Crystal Palace are going to avoid relegation this season. The reason is new manager Pulis who's managed to get 3 wins already since his appointment. This is a 6-pointer for both teams, and I fancy the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Fulham v/s West Ham. This will probably end in a draw or a home win. Best to avoid as the forms of both teams cannot be relied in any way.

Liverpool v/s Hull City. Suarez has been blanked for the past 2 matches and it would take a brave man to see him off the score-sheet in this one. Hull are mighty at home and well organized on the road. However, class should prevail here and it's hard to see the Kops being beaten at home, after 2 tough away defeats. Liverpool is a home win selection.

Southampton v/s Chelsea. This looks set to be a close one and I don't think there will be more than a goal separating the teams. Best to avoid as the result can go any way.

Sunderland v/s Aston Villa. The hosts are enjoying a revival under Poyet and this is a match they will be keen to get full points to avoid staying in the relegation limelight. Villa are woeful at the moment and cannot be backed in any way. I like Sunderland as a draw-no-bet in this one.

West Brom v/s Newcastle. I think the Baggies are under-valued in the current market. Last game week, I went against Newcastle when they hosted Arsenal and I think it worth to lay against them again this week. West Brom are a solid team at home and they look to be good value as draw-no-bet.

Man Utd v/s Tottenham.  The fortunes of the Red Devils seems to have turned for the better for the past weeks and they seem to be getting the rubber of the green, something they lacked in the prior games. I cannot see them lose this match and if Rooney makes it in the starting line-up, they could very well get full points. They are a win selection for good value, but if a safe route is preferred, then a draw-no-bet looks a safe selection.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Crystal Palace, Sunderland, West Brom
+1: Swansea

EPL Week 19

This is the part of the season where having a real squad can make a difference in winning and losing matches. With so many games in such a short span and injuries invariably mounting, managers need to get their rotations right.

West Ham v/s West Brom. This looks like a drab draw in the making. The Hammers are beset by injuries and goals look set to be hard to come by. The Baggies are still manager-less but would have been happy to snatch a point at White Hart Lane on Boxing Day. If this game is to decide a winner, it looks to be by the minimum goal but chances are that a draw is the likeliest result.

Aston Villa v/s Swansea. Another game with 2 teams with awful form. Both are playing without their star players in Benteke and Michu. Best to avoid.

Man City v/s Crystal Palace. Although the Eagles are enjoying a renewal since Pulis took over, there isn't a more difficult place to go than the Etihad. They will retain some hope to get at least something out of the game with the knowledge that they almost kept Chelsea in check at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago. After beating Liverpool, the hosts will need to retain their focus to play a weaker team and get the necessary full points. It might be easier said than done, but in the end, City have the best squad in the league and should have the necessary resources to get the win.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. I think the Red Devils are a little exposed here. They had to tough it out to win at Hull on Boxing Day and this is going to be another hard game. They will be thin at right-back with Valencia picking up a rather stupid late red card. Carrow Road is a place they have struggled over the past years. The Canaries are beset by a few injuries at the moment but they still battle hard at home. I think it might be worth to go with the hosts with a +1 handicap at current market odds.

Cardiff v/s Sunderland. Cardiff have just lost their manager and this does not bode well for the visit of Black Cats who will be invigorated after their latest away win at Everton. The momentum is clearly with Sunderland and I see them as a value draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Arsenal. Newcastle are in flying form and I might be wrong, but I believe their current 5th position flatters them a bit. They are a Top 10 side, but definitely not Top 6. The Gunners can make them crash down to earth on any day, but they will be missing mercurial midfielder Aaron Ramsey, their best player since the start of the season. The good news for Arsenal is the return of striker Podolski after a 4-month absence. At current market odds, I like Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

Chelsea v/s Liverpool. Can Brendan Rodgers, an old assistant to Mourinho, be the one to end the Portuguese's invincible league record at Stamford Bridge? On paper, it looks tough for that to happen since they will be missing Gerrard and Sturridge. The Kops came out enhanced in their Boxing Day defeat at the Etihad and they will have to produce another strong performance to overcome the hosts. I think a draw is the likeliest outcome and if there is to be a winner, it will probably be the hosts. Chelsea is a draw-no-bet selection.

Tottenham v/s Stoke. Still undecided on this Spurs side under Tim Sherwood, so will stay on the fence watching their next few games to come up on an opinion on which direction their season will be going.


Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Arsenal, Chelsea
+1 Goal: Norwich.

EPL Week 17

The games will be coming fast and furious during the festive season; bring'em on!

Liverpool v/s Cardiff. The Kops look to be the banker of the week-end. Even without Gerrard and Sturridge, they are in flying form thanks to Suarez. Cardiff, on the other hand, are rocked by a severe off-field dispute between manager and owner. Once the 90 mins are over, they could very well be manager-less. The Kops should win this by a margin and no need to mention who's most apt to score.

Crystal Palace v/s Newcastle. Many are giving the in-form Magpies a strong chance here. I will go the other way and make the Eagles the value draw-no-bet of the week-end. Under Pulis they are a becoming a resilient team that is difficult to break down. They've won 2 of the past 3 and came out with honours intact in last defeat at Stamford Bridge. I think Palace can avoid the drop with the kind of work ethic Pulis is instilling in the team.

Fulham v/s Man City. The news that Dempsey is to re-join Fulham on-loan is definitely a plus in its fight to stave off relegation. However, the visit of EPL favourites Man City, does not bode well for the hosts. Even without main striker Aguero, City has the best squad in the league and can manage goal-scoring threats from many other sources. Their recent win at Munich in particular, will give them the confidence to overcome their currently poor away league record. Man City are a Win selection.

Man Utd v/s West Ham. I think Man Utd is on a winning streak here after 2 dismal and well-documented home defeats. Should be a win for the Red Devils.

Stoke v/s Aston Villa. Mark Hughes seems to have finally impregnated the team with his footprint and they are now a difficult team to break down. They must have a great chance against the struggling Villains. I like the hosts as a safe draw-no-bet proposition.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. On paper, Sunderland should edge this although I am not sure how much a toll their extra-time win against Chelsea in mid-week will affect them. Norwich are very vulnerable on their away travels, and are hard to warrant any kind of confidence. This could very well end in a draw and better to sit on the fence.

Southampton v/s Tottenham. I just read that Tim Sherwood wants to be permanent manager of Spurs. Who? I mean, the guy has no managerial experience and has only won one piece of silverware in his career. Spurs are a team in disarray at the moment, and their mid-week loss at home to West Ham proves that unless they get the right, world-class manager at the helm as soon as possible, their season will turn for the worst. I thought they would be a top 6 team this year but unless they come up with someone good quick, they might not even get a European spot. The Saints' form hasn't been brilliant of late, but they have a good record at home and will be keen to pounce on a wounded opponent. The hosts are definitely a draw-no-bet recommendation.

Arsenal v/s Chelsea. I think the result can go any way, but I'd rather watch than have a punt on this one. Mourinho has a great record against Wenger teams, particularly as he has a knack of shackling teams that play offensive football. This is a 6-pointer game for both, and it won't be surprising if it ends in a draw.

Win: Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Crystal Palace, Stoke, Southampton

EPL Week 16

Back after a short early break, the mind definitely freshened-up and ready to tackle the rumble and tumble of festive December football.

Man City v/s Arsenal. This is a 6-pointer, no doubt, with the 2 main contenders for the title according to the bookies. City are a formidable fortress at home but if there is team that can breach them, it is the Gunners. The mid-week away win at Bayern Munich could be the turning point of the Citizens' season because there is no doubt that it will have given them a huge confidence boost with the know-how that they went to beat the best team in the world at the moment. They have been stuttering in their EPL away games but a win in Munich can eliminate the mental barriers. On the other hand, Arsenal lost at Napoli in the UCL but still secured qualification. My concern is not the defeat in itself but rather the exertions they had to put in the game, especially having had to play with 10 men with the sending off of Arteta. So from a fitness point of view, the advantage is clearly with Man City and that tips the balance for me to the hosts. I see a draw-no-bet on the hosts as a safe and value selection.

Chelsea v/s Crystal Palace. Not sure which type of Chelsea team will show up on the day but I cannot see Mourinho's unbeaten home record being wrecked by the Eagles. The Blues should win this to keep their title hopes live.

Everton v/s Fulham. This should end in a home win. The Toffees have been impressive in winning at Old Trafford and securing a draw at Arsenal. This is a team growing in confidence under a good manager in Martinez. Fulham won last week but they can expect an entirely different proposition at Goodison Park. Everton is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Man Utd. The bad news keep on piling for Man Utd as RVP will be missing a month because of a thigh injury. If they did not have Rooney in front, they would be in a worse situation than they are. They should however, have too much quality for the Villains who struggle to come up with good consistent performances week-in, week-out. Benteke is a non-factor at the moment. The selection is Man Utd as a draw-no-bet.

Tottenham v/s Liverpool. Spurs seem to be righting the ship after their calamitous 6-goal drubbing at the Etihaad a few weeks ago. Soldado scored a hat-trick in the Europa on Thursday and this could be the match he needed to finally start scoring on a regular basis. Liverpool have been rocked this week of the absence of Gerrard for more than a month. This is bad news for the Kops who are already missing striker Sturridge. That leaves Suarez as the only plausible man apt to score in this team. December could be a make or break month for Rodgers and his team. I see value going with Spurs as a draw-no-bet here.

Win: Everton, Chelsea
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham

EPL Week 14

My thoughts on some of the mid-week matches.

Arsenal v/s Hull. The visitors proved me wrong by beating Liverpool over the week-end. I don't think they will have another giant kill in the space of 4 days. Ozil seems to have waken up from his slight slumber in the last game and Ramsey is just unplayable at the moment. Should be a Gunners win.

Liverpool v/s Norwich. Whether it was a blip or it was a team badly missing Sturridge, but Liverpool were poor against Hull in their last match. To continue their UCL aspirations for a Top 4, they need to get maximum points against teams like Norwich. I think they will if Suarez can show he is as dangerous up-front without strike partner Sturridge. Should be worth going straight for the Kop win here.

Man Utd v/s Everton. Interesting match-up that pits Moyes against his old team. The Toffees are actually doing very well under Martinez and although they are going to miss Leighton Baines for a while, they are still a strong team to overcome without the England left-back. The Red Devils are on a good un-beaten run although they have dropped 4 crucial points in their last 2 games. I cannot see them lose this game and all indications are that they should win this in the end. Probably safest to go draw-no-bet with the hosts.

Southampton v/s Villa. The Saints will be missing goalkeeper Boruc for quite a while due to a broken hand. Their home record is pretty daunting and I expect them to overcome a Villa team that is average at best when Benteke is not scoring. At current odds, the hosts look good value as a win.

Swansea v/s Newcastle. The Magpies are running high and are in a surprise 6th position. I think the buck stops for them at Swansea this week. Although the Swans will be without Michu and Bony, they are still a quality side that can present challenges to any team  on their playground. I see Swansea as a strong draw-no-bet at current odds.

Fulham v/s Tottenham. I see a visitor win or draw here. New Fulham manager Meulensteen has proved a top coach at Man Utd but managing a team is an entirely different story. The side is poor and this is a good opportunity for Spurs to get back in the win column after some poor form of late. Their 2-2 draw against Man Utd will have brought back some good level of confidence to the side and I see them as a value draw-no-bet as well.


Win: Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Swansea, Tottenham