Barcelona cosily dispatched Rayo in their safe haven of Nou Camp. A few things of note as I watched the game; Rayo tried to go mano-a-mano with Guardiola's men, trying to pressurize and hurry them off the ball. That can work well for half an hour, but after that, the legs are no longer there to stifle Barca's relentless attacking prowess. But credit to the visitors for giving it their all though. The other thing is the return of Alexis Sanchez for the Blaugrana. This guy can run at speed with the ball, no doubt. Gareth Bale, Nani, Sanchez, players of the same class level, in my opinion.
Today sees the last leg of the Carling Cup being played; yesterday Chelsea got dumped by Liverpool adding to the woes of Villa-Boas. With the Terry racial issue, the non-commitment of Drogba and the club's poor form, things are certainly not rosy at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal were eliminated by Man City, but that's no surprise there, it was more a case of boys playing against men.
Man Utd host Crystal Palace and the unsurprising word from Old Trafford is that the youngsters will play. Well, I think they will be surrounded pretty securely by the likes of Berbatov, Rafael, Smalling etc, who bring top-class experience with them. The visitors have a more important League game on Friday, so there is every chance that they will not be fielding their strongest team for tonight's game. With this in mind, the hosts look to have the upper hand and are recommended as a draw-no-bet. They will either win this game in 90 minutes or draw it out.
Tonight also sees Europa League action and Tottenham host Greek outfit PAOK. The first leg game ended draw-less, with Tottenham fielding one of their most inexperienced teams ever for a European game. This time, the stakes are different as failure to win will most certainly eliminate them from the competition. Harry Redknapp is a master at these kinds of encounters and he will certainly be fielding a competitive team to get the 3 points. I recommend Tottenham as a draw-no-bet as well.
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Tottenham
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Real in the clear
O Barca! It looked to be another great week-end with Chelsea and Madrid winning, and Man Utd drawing for a voided punt, until Barcelona did the unthinkable and got sunk at Getafe. I wrote last week about starting to take position on Real Madrid for the title; I more than strongly think that they cannot be caught. Obviously, the mumblings from the Barca camp is that there is still a long way to go, but they are voices of desperation at the task ahead of them. For all I can see, the longer the race, the longer can Madrid prolong their lead! They are the hungrier team, and with 6 points already in hand, they won't be allowed to rest on their laurels with a coach like Mourinho. Obviously, Christiano Ronaldo has to stay injury-free until the end of the campaign to greatly help their cause. They are really in the clear
In the Premier League, the gap is still 5 points between the 2 Manchester teams. I couldn't believe the headlines with David Beckham saying that City had NO chance to win the title! Usually he talks sense, but this time he certainly set aside all reasoning, talking as a Utd fan. Obviously, City have a great chance to win the title and Utd cannot afford to continue misfiring like against the likes of Newcastle this week-end. Sure, there's the controversial penalty, but the problem is deeper, in that the team is being continually rotated to make due of injuries and lack of a real playmaker.
The racing news of the week-end was the defeat of Danedream in the Japan Cup. I don't think she was outclassed in finishing sixth, around 4 lengths off the winner. Obviously the winner Buena Vista is a super filly on her own and deserves this win more than anyone else after having been quite harshly disqualified in last year's edition. There's a lot of upside in following Danedream next year as she looks to get even better, in my opinion.
Going back to football, in a few hours, Barcelona host Rayo Vellacano for a La Liga game. No doubt here, however disappointing the Blaugrana were against Getafe, they are impenetrable at the Nou Camp and should win this handily. A straight win is an easy recommendation here if you're willing to go for the considerably short odds.
Win: Barcelona
In the Premier League, the gap is still 5 points between the 2 Manchester teams. I couldn't believe the headlines with David Beckham saying that City had NO chance to win the title! Usually he talks sense, but this time he certainly set aside all reasoning, talking as a Utd fan. Obviously, City have a great chance to win the title and Utd cannot afford to continue misfiring like against the likes of Newcastle this week-end. Sure, there's the controversial penalty, but the problem is deeper, in that the team is being continually rotated to make due of injuries and lack of a real playmaker.
The racing news of the week-end was the defeat of Danedream in the Japan Cup. I don't think she was outclassed in finishing sixth, around 4 lengths off the winner. Obviously the winner Buena Vista is a super filly on her own and deserves this win more than anyone else after having been quite harshly disqualified in last year's edition. There's a lot of upside in following Danedream next year as she looks to get even better, in my opinion.
Going back to football, in a few hours, Barcelona host Rayo Vellacano for a La Liga game. No doubt here, however disappointing the Blaugrana were against Getafe, they are impenetrable at the Nou Camp and should win this handily. A straight win is an easy recommendation here if you're willing to go for the considerably short odds.
Win: Barcelona
Friday, November 25, 2011
Week-end football
Valencia was an oh-so-easy winner against poor Genk, thrashing them 7-0. No surprise there. Week-end football is coming up and am hoping that the hot streak continues, so let's get at it.
A struggling Chelsea side is hosting Wolves and there is no manager in the game under pressure as is Villa-Boas nowadays. A defeat could be the tipping point for him to be toppled. However, I don't think they will lose this game. Wolves will be missing a few first-team players, and the Blues will be eager to right their sinking ship. Their lack of confidence might be low, but in the end Chelsea should come up with at least a point in this game. A draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.
Man Utd host Newcastle and getting the 3 points is far from a certainty for the Red Devils. The recent loss of Anderson to injury means that their midfield is really stretched to the limit. They had a hard game against Benfica in mid-week, which is hardly the best preparation to face the Magpies. I personally think there are big question marks regarding Rooney; his recent hip injury, his lack of goal scoring since the news of his family being involved in betting scams, and his re-positioning in a midfield role in the team. It will be interesting if he finds his full confidence back against Newcastle, a team he's been known to have the knack of scoring goals against. As for Pardew's men, they have overachieved since the start, but will be missing a few first choice players for the game. I would not be surprised if this game ended in a draw, and I can't see the hosts losing this; so a draw-no-bet on Man Utd is recommended.
The banker of the week-end is Real Madrid who host Athletico Madrid. The Los Blancos haven't lost to their city rivals for years, and that won't change over the week-end. Real is on fire right now. Athletico will be missing many players including their much-vaunted striker Falcao. I see lots of goals for the hosts in this game. They will certainly win and they are an easy Win recommendation.
Barcelona are on the road to Getafe. The Blaugrana were impressive in midweek by winning at the San Siro. Once Real will have dispatched Athletico, Messi and co will have no choice to win to retain the gap to 3 points between them and the Los Blancos. They should have all the class and firepower to do it and should win their game. They are recommended as an outright Win as well.
A struggling Chelsea side is hosting Wolves and there is no manager in the game under pressure as is Villa-Boas nowadays. A defeat could be the tipping point for him to be toppled. However, I don't think they will lose this game. Wolves will be missing a few first-team players, and the Blues will be eager to right their sinking ship. Their lack of confidence might be low, but in the end Chelsea should come up with at least a point in this game. A draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.
Man Utd host Newcastle and getting the 3 points is far from a certainty for the Red Devils. The recent loss of Anderson to injury means that their midfield is really stretched to the limit. They had a hard game against Benfica in mid-week, which is hardly the best preparation to face the Magpies. I personally think there are big question marks regarding Rooney; his recent hip injury, his lack of goal scoring since the news of his family being involved in betting scams, and his re-positioning in a midfield role in the team. It will be interesting if he finds his full confidence back against Newcastle, a team he's been known to have the knack of scoring goals against. As for Pardew's men, they have overachieved since the start, but will be missing a few first choice players for the game. I would not be surprised if this game ended in a draw, and I can't see the hosts losing this; so a draw-no-bet on Man Utd is recommended.
The banker of the week-end is Real Madrid who host Athletico Madrid. The Los Blancos haven't lost to their city rivals for years, and that won't change over the week-end. Real is on fire right now. Athletico will be missing many players including their much-vaunted striker Falcao. I see lots of goals for the hosts in this game. They will certainly win and they are an easy Win recommendation.
Barcelona are on the road to Getafe. The Blaugrana were impressive in midweek by winning at the San Siro. Once Real will have dispatched Athletico, Messi and co will have no choice to win to retain the gap to 3 points between them and the Los Blancos. They should have all the class and firepower to do it and should win their game. They are recommended as an outright Win as well.
Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Man Utd
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Wednesday football
Bayern Munich easily beat Villareal for a winning selection.
Staying in the Champions League on Wednesday, Valencia look to be atoning on their week-end loss to Real Madrid when they host Belgian outfit Racing Genk. Their first match ended into a goal-less draw although the Spaniards overwhelmed their opponents in shots and possession. The 3 points are ripe for the taking for the hosts as they try to secure second place from Bayern Leverkusen. They cannot afford to lose points in this match and I recommend them as an outright win.
Win: Valencia
Staying in the Champions League on Wednesday, Valencia look to be atoning on their week-end loss to Real Madrid when they host Belgian outfit Racing Genk. Their first match ended into a goal-less draw although the Spaniards overwhelmed their opponents in shots and possession. The 3 points are ripe for the taking for the hosts as they try to secure second place from Bayern Leverkusen. They cannot afford to lose points in this match and I recommend them as an outright win.
Win: Valencia
Monday, November 21, 2011
Crystal clear at the top
6 wins out of 6 recommendations over the week-end. Seem to be riding a great form at the moment. Man City, Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Stuttgart and Schalke all won.
In the EPL, it's NO longer premature to say that the title will go between the 2 Manchester sides. I honestly cannot see any other team disputing it. And if I have to make a bold prediction, Man City are in a position to win the Premiership very handily this year. Just my opinion. At the moment, the Red Devils are huffing and puffing, missing the influence of Rooney up-front as they try to cover for the lack of a real play-maker with the absence of Cleverley due to injury. They must ensure that they do not lose points during their relatively modest form of late, or else City could open an insurmountable gap by Christmas time. Obviously, things will change and even the Citizens' form will suffer the normal season's ebbs and flows, but one cannot help feel that they have a deep-enough squad to withstand the challenges ahead. If Mancini can steer the ship alright, they are in a royal position to win it. Never discount Alex Ferguson's men though, they will never give up the fight, certain not to their neighbours!
I have the same feeling regarding Real Madrid in La Liga. They are getting better and better, they have Mourinho, they have Christiano Ronaldo, and they have the upper hand on Barcelona right now. Certainly the 3 hard-earned points at the Mestella this week-end will enormously help the Los Blancos at the end of the campaign. The Blaugrana just cannot afford to lose points as Madrid look to be a very strong leader.
At the moment, for those playing the long view/big returns game, it might make sense to start taking a gradual position on both Man City and Real Madrid to win their respective titles.
On Champions League Tuesday, I like Bayern Munich to overcome Villareal at home. The hosts lost to Dortmund over the week-end, a game which turned out to be a trap as I was mentioning during my preview. However, Villareal is a club in transition and although they have kept a clean sheet in their past 3 games, their level is certainly not up to par to previous years'. The Bavarians will be keen to win this game to secure top spot and I just cannot see them failing against the struggling Spanish team. The hosts are a strong recommendation for a draw-no-bet.
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich
In the EPL, it's NO longer premature to say that the title will go between the 2 Manchester sides. I honestly cannot see any other team disputing it. And if I have to make a bold prediction, Man City are in a position to win the Premiership very handily this year. Just my opinion. At the moment, the Red Devils are huffing and puffing, missing the influence of Rooney up-front as they try to cover for the lack of a real play-maker with the absence of Cleverley due to injury. They must ensure that they do not lose points during their relatively modest form of late, or else City could open an insurmountable gap by Christmas time. Obviously, things will change and even the Citizens' form will suffer the normal season's ebbs and flows, but one cannot help feel that they have a deep-enough squad to withstand the challenges ahead. If Mancini can steer the ship alright, they are in a royal position to win it. Never discount Alex Ferguson's men though, they will never give up the fight, certain not to their neighbours!
I have the same feeling regarding Real Madrid in La Liga. They are getting better and better, they have Mourinho, they have Christiano Ronaldo, and they have the upper hand on Barcelona right now. Certainly the 3 hard-earned points at the Mestella this week-end will enormously help the Los Blancos at the end of the campaign. The Blaugrana just cannot afford to lose points as Madrid look to be a very strong leader.
At the moment, for those playing the long view/big returns game, it might make sense to start taking a gradual position on both Man City and Real Madrid to win their respective titles.
On Champions League Tuesday, I like Bayern Munich to overcome Villareal at home. The hosts lost to Dortmund over the week-end, a game which turned out to be a trap as I was mentioning during my preview. However, Villareal is a club in transition and although they have kept a clean sheet in their past 3 games, their level is certainly not up to par to previous years'. The Bavarians will be keen to win this game to secure top spot and I just cannot see them failing against the struggling Spanish team. The hosts are a strong recommendation for a draw-no-bet.
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich
Friday, November 18, 2011
Week-end preview
Good old club football is back after the boring international friendlies. Just need to make sure that the selections are not affected by the disruption of the 2-week break and most importantly, from injuries.
In the EPL, Man City should overcome Newcastle at home. The Magpies are still unbeaten at this stage and re the surprise package of the first half of the season. However, they will be missing a few starting players like Tiote in midfield and Best in attack. Man City can play 2 teams as their depth in squad is pretty much unparalleled in the Premiership. The team is so potent that goals can come from anywhere. I recommend Man City as a strong draw-no-bet.
Man Utd visit Swansea and should be able to keep up the pressure on neighbours City. Although they will be without Cleverley, Wellbeck and Owen, the fringe players can easily add their bit to the team. I don't expect this game to be a goal fest but I see the Red Devils edging this out at the end. It won't be easy for them, but they should have too much class for the hosts. I recommend Man Utd as a draw-no-bet as well.
In Spain, Barcelona should have no problem to overcome Zaragoza at home. Already trailing Real Madrid by 3 points, it will be important for Messi and co to get maximum points at the Nou Camp. They are an easy Win recommendation. The Los Blancos face an arguably tough task visiting third-place Valencia, who happen to be unbeaten at home so far. This is the kind of game where there is value backing Mourinho's team as a draw-no-bet. I see them getting at least a point from this match, and should they get the 3 points, they would have successfully removed a giant obstacle on their path to the title.
In Germany, it's the top match between Dortmund and Munich. Bayern lost their influential midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger recently and it will be interesting to see how it affects their dynamic. This game is too close to call although the hosts clearly have the advantage of home soil. Rather, I will focus on the Schalke-Nurnberg and Stuttgart-Augsburg matches where the hosts look to be enjoying a massive home advantage and are thus recommended as strong draw-no-bets.
Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Schalke, Stuttgart
In the EPL, Man City should overcome Newcastle at home. The Magpies are still unbeaten at this stage and re the surprise package of the first half of the season. However, they will be missing a few starting players like Tiote in midfield and Best in attack. Man City can play 2 teams as their depth in squad is pretty much unparalleled in the Premiership. The team is so potent that goals can come from anywhere. I recommend Man City as a strong draw-no-bet.
Man Utd visit Swansea and should be able to keep up the pressure on neighbours City. Although they will be without Cleverley, Wellbeck and Owen, the fringe players can easily add their bit to the team. I don't expect this game to be a goal fest but I see the Red Devils edging this out at the end. It won't be easy for them, but they should have too much class for the hosts. I recommend Man Utd as a draw-no-bet as well.
In Spain, Barcelona should have no problem to overcome Zaragoza at home. Already trailing Real Madrid by 3 points, it will be important for Messi and co to get maximum points at the Nou Camp. They are an easy Win recommendation. The Los Blancos face an arguably tough task visiting third-place Valencia, who happen to be unbeaten at home so far. This is the kind of game where there is value backing Mourinho's team as a draw-no-bet. I see them getting at least a point from this match, and should they get the 3 points, they would have successfully removed a giant obstacle on their path to the title.
In Germany, it's the top match between Dortmund and Munich. Bayern lost their influential midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger recently and it will be interesting to see how it affects their dynamic. This game is too close to call although the hosts clearly have the advantage of home soil. Rather, I will focus on the Schalke-Nurnberg and Stuttgart-Augsburg matches where the hosts look to be enjoying a massive home advantage and are thus recommended as strong draw-no-bets.
Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Schalke, Stuttgart
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Racing resources
I'm often asked about online resources on thoroughbred racing and I'm more than happy to comment on some of those that I think provide good and useful information.
Obviously, as all racing people know, the premier racing site for English and European racing is the Racing Post (racingpost.co.uk). It contains THE database for all horses and their performances including interesting statistics. Their very well-classified News section is always the quickest to update. For over a year now, they have started a comprehensive Video section with features and race replays etc. I don't necessarily agree with their tv pundits as some of them seem to be more interested into showmanship, but some of their features on horses and trainers are fine.
Attheraces.com is another excellent website. I really like the fact that they display the pedigree of the horses on the race cards. They have an exceptional free Video library and their occasional features on horses, trainers is unsurpassed. I find them useful for those not having access to their satellite tv channel, when on trips etc. If a replay of a UK race is not available at attheraces.com, it is most probably in the racing video section of sportinglife.com or racinguk.com.
Drf.com is quickly becoming one of my favourite sites. The US equivalent of the Racing Post, its main focus is still mainly US racing but it has been revamped recently and very often offers live feeds of important races around the world for free. For instance, Dubai racing, the Melbourne Cup, Breeders Cup, Champions Stakes etc, were all broadcasted live on the site.
On the literature side, there are a few good daily publications such as thoroughbreddailynews.com, thoroughbredtimes.com, throughbredinternet.com and bloodhorse.com which I know many columnists refer to.
I find that all of the above provide a certain appeal and the way to benefit from them is to be selective from each. Get what you feel is the best out of each, be it pedigree queries, news, race cards, statistics etc.
Last, many jockeys and trainers have personal web sites as well as Twitter accounts. It's hard to gather whether reading those that are of actual benefit for analysis since they deal with a lot of subjective matter. Will a trainer ever publicly state that a horse he's running has no chance? Read their words with caution!
Obviously, as all racing people know, the premier racing site for English and European racing is the Racing Post (racingpost.co.uk). It contains THE database for all horses and their performances including interesting statistics. Their very well-classified News section is always the quickest to update. For over a year now, they have started a comprehensive Video section with features and race replays etc. I don't necessarily agree with their tv pundits as some of them seem to be more interested into showmanship, but some of their features on horses and trainers are fine.
Attheraces.com is another excellent website. I really like the fact that they display the pedigree of the horses on the race cards. They have an exceptional free Video library and their occasional features on horses, trainers is unsurpassed. I find them useful for those not having access to their satellite tv channel, when on trips etc. If a replay of a UK race is not available at attheraces.com, it is most probably in the racing video section of sportinglife.com or racinguk.com.
Drf.com is quickly becoming one of my favourite sites. The US equivalent of the Racing Post, its main focus is still mainly US racing but it has been revamped recently and very often offers live feeds of important races around the world for free. For instance, Dubai racing, the Melbourne Cup, Breeders Cup, Champions Stakes etc, were all broadcasted live on the site.
On the literature side, there are a few good daily publications such as thoroughbreddailynews.com, thoroughbredtimes.com, throughbredinternet.com and bloodhorse.com which I know many columnists refer to.
I find that all of the above provide a certain appeal and the way to benefit from them is to be selective from each. Get what you feel is the best out of each, be it pedigree queries, news, race cards, statistics etc.
Last, many jockeys and trainers have personal web sites as well as Twitter accounts. It's hard to gather whether reading those that are of actual benefit for analysis since they deal with a lot of subjective matter. Will a trainer ever publicly state that a horse he's running has no chance? Read their words with caution!
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Cartier coronation
It's jubilation galore as Ireland, Portugal and Czechoslovakia justified the confidence placed in them in these playoffs. While the Irish and Czechs had virtually booked their tickets to the finals in the first leg, the Portuguese were left with all to do to overcome the Bosnians and they did not disappoint after another brilliant display from Christiano Ronaldo.
At this moment, it's obviously too early to have any kind of inkling as to how all the qualified teams will fare at Euro 2012. Injuries, team form, suspensions, fatigue etc are bound to be major factors and it will be speculative to have a punt on any one of them now.
In racing, the Cartier awards were held yesterday and I pretty much am agreeable with the outcome in all the categories. Invincible Frankel winning the top honours is stating the obvious. Cirrus des Aigles beating So You Think for the older male category is fine too since he beat the Ballydoyle horse in the Champion Stakes. Danedream's stupendous win in the Arc was voted best filly over Blue Bunting. The manner of her victory was certainly decisive there. Dabirsim was unbeaten in 5 races as a juvenile and won the category deservedly. It will be interesting how he fares next year. Being by young Japanese stallion Hat Trick, there is not much history or guidance as to the route of his development. Fame and Glory was best stayer but you feel he can't be categorized in the same class as Yeats, yet!
The American version of the Cartier, the Eclipse awards, is on the other hand, spurring lots of debate mainly as regards crowning Horse of the Year. Basically there is no clear front runner as a few of the top contenders flopped at the recent Breeders Cup. The debate is sure to rage on until January when the winners will be announced.
At this moment, it's obviously too early to have any kind of inkling as to how all the qualified teams will fare at Euro 2012. Injuries, team form, suspensions, fatigue etc are bound to be major factors and it will be speculative to have a punt on any one of them now.
In racing, the Cartier awards were held yesterday and I pretty much am agreeable with the outcome in all the categories. Invincible Frankel winning the top honours is stating the obvious. Cirrus des Aigles beating So You Think for the older male category is fine too since he beat the Ballydoyle horse in the Champion Stakes. Danedream's stupendous win in the Arc was voted best filly over Blue Bunting. The manner of her victory was certainly decisive there. Dabirsim was unbeaten in 5 races as a juvenile and won the category deservedly. It will be interesting how he fares next year. Being by young Japanese stallion Hat Trick, there is not much history or guidance as to the route of his development. Fame and Glory was best stayer but you feel he can't be categorized in the same class as Yeats, yet!
The American version of the Cartier, the Eclipse awards, is on the other hand, spurring lots of debate mainly as regards crowning Horse of the Year. Basically there is no clear front runner as a few of the top contenders flopped at the recent Breeders Cup. The debate is sure to rage on until January when the winners will be announced.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Ramblings from the week-end
Sitting pretty on Ireland and the Czechs as they are virtually through to the Finals after convincing wins in the first leg. Portugal was unable to strike in Bosnia, and although they are still the favourites, there is a risk that they could be outdone on away goals. Imagine Bosnia scoring the first goal and parking the bus... My opinion is that Portugal have enough quality and firepower to score a few against the Bosnians at home and are still the more likely to go through. It wouldn't hurt however to cover your positions if you're already loaded on them to qualify in case the visitors play for the away goals. After all, returns from the Ireland and Czechs qualifying should be more than enough to take a small cover on Portugal-Bosnia match.
A few tidbits from the sporting world over this past week-end. I was looking much forward to the return to the track of Overdose, the Budapest Bullet, in Italy. He duly won and beat Italy's best sprinter by half-a-length. Considering that he won this race by 10 lengths a couple of years back, before his feet problems, it can be strongly argued whether he's still at the peak of his powers. Being a 6-year old now definitely does not help. My assessment is that he's still a good sprinter and can win in lesser fields of Italy and Germany, but will find it very hard against proven sprinters in France, England and Hong Kong, where the connections are planning to race him next. We'll see if he can be better than what he showed on Sunday.
In football, England beat Spain in the international friendly. Whether they were dominated or not, a Win is a win, and a great moral boost for the hosts. No nation will beat Spain at the moment by matching their football. Even a great footballing side like the Netherlands had to resort to negative tactics in the World Cup final to try to break the rhythm of the Spanish team. It nearly worked for them. I think Saturday's win will have given the team belief that they can get a result against any team but they have to build on that result, or else they are bound to regress to the doldrums and remain a perennial disappointment.
In golf, could Tiger be on his way back? It certainly looks so after an encouraging third in the Australian Open. The guy's trying new things with a new caddie; it will take time for him to get back to his winning ways and dominance, but he'll win again for sure. Next year is definitely the year to start following him like at the start of this century.
A few tidbits from the sporting world over this past week-end. I was looking much forward to the return to the track of Overdose, the Budapest Bullet, in Italy. He duly won and beat Italy's best sprinter by half-a-length. Considering that he won this race by 10 lengths a couple of years back, before his feet problems, it can be strongly argued whether he's still at the peak of his powers. Being a 6-year old now definitely does not help. My assessment is that he's still a good sprinter and can win in lesser fields of Italy and Germany, but will find it very hard against proven sprinters in France, England and Hong Kong, where the connections are planning to race him next. We'll see if he can be better than what he showed on Sunday.
In football, England beat Spain in the international friendly. Whether they were dominated or not, a Win is a win, and a great moral boost for the hosts. No nation will beat Spain at the moment by matching their football. Even a great footballing side like the Netherlands had to resort to negative tactics in the World Cup final to try to break the rhythm of the Spanish team. It nearly worked for them. I think Saturday's win will have given the team belief that they can get a result against any team but they have to build on that result, or else they are bound to regress to the doldrums and remain a perennial disappointment.
In golf, could Tiger be on his way back? It certainly looks so after an encouraging third in the Australian Open. The guy's trying new things with a new caddie; it will take time for him to get back to his winning ways and dominance, but he'll win again for sure. Next year is definitely the year to start following him like at the start of this century.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Euro 2012 Playoffs
Enchanted Dream was a disappointing unplaced; reading her trainer's comments, she apparently did not take to the fibresand, but she did well on her last appearance on it. I think that she got outpaced and the 7 furlongs was a little on the sharp side for her. A longer distance would have suited her better.
In a few hours, the Euro 2012 playoffs will commence and I unreservedly think Portugal, Ireland and the Czechs are going to go through. No surprise there as they are favourites of their ties. As regards Turkey against Croatia, I think the underdogs Turks have a great chance to qualify; at this stage, mental toughness will shine through and the Turk national team certainly has the edge over the Croats in this regard. For value punters, Turkey is the one to look at, in my opinion, in these playoffs
Portugal should be able to overcome Bosnia over 2 legs. They not only can count on Christiano Ronaldo, but also a cast of other big-game players like Nani, Meireles etc. The Portuguese to qualify is the recommendation.
Ireland will not have a better chance to qualify as they play Estonia. Trappatoni is a master trainer who will get his tactics right; I hope the Irish go through because of the injustice suffered at the hands (no pun-intended!) of the Thierry Henry fraud in the World Cup 2010 playoffs. I think they will and recommend to qualify as well.
Finally, it looks to be close between the Czechs and Montenegro but the former boast a much richer pedigree in the competition. They are maybe slightly weaker than the Czech teams of a few years back, but still a formidable force to reckon with. I recommend the Peter Cech and his acolytes to go through.
To qualify: Ireland, Portugal, Czechoslovakia
In a few hours, the Euro 2012 playoffs will commence and I unreservedly think Portugal, Ireland and the Czechs are going to go through. No surprise there as they are favourites of their ties. As regards Turkey against Croatia, I think the underdogs Turks have a great chance to qualify; at this stage, mental toughness will shine through and the Turk national team certainly has the edge over the Croats in this regard. For value punters, Turkey is the one to look at, in my opinion, in these playoffs
Portugal should be able to overcome Bosnia over 2 legs. They not only can count on Christiano Ronaldo, but also a cast of other big-game players like Nani, Meireles etc. The Portuguese to qualify is the recommendation.
Ireland will not have a better chance to qualify as they play Estonia. Trappatoni is a master trainer who will get his tactics right; I hope the Irish go through because of the injustice suffered at the hands (no pun-intended!) of the Thierry Henry fraud in the World Cup 2010 playoffs. I think they will and recommend to qualify as well.
Finally, it looks to be close between the Czechs and Montenegro but the former boast a much richer pedigree in the competition. They are maybe slightly weaker than the Czech teams of a few years back, but still a formidable force to reckon with. I recommend the Peter Cech and his acolytes to go through.
To qualify: Ireland, Portugal, Czechoslovakia
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Thursday at Southwell
With the end of the regular racing season and the international football break, this is a very quiet week by the usual standards. The all-weather cards ensure that flat racing is never really off, though.
On Thursday, the 14:20 race-card at Southwell looks a good spot for Enchanted Dream from the Margarson stable to break her maiden. The daughter of Halling was a good second over course and distance 17 days ago and should be among the main contenders in this rather weak field. The race favourite Afkar, from the Clive Brittain stable should provide the main threat. I cannot see Enchanted Dream out of the placings, so I recommend her as a Place.
Place: Enchanted Dream
On Thursday, the 14:20 race-card at Southwell looks a good spot for Enchanted Dream from the Margarson stable to break her maiden. The daughter of Halling was a good second over course and distance 17 days ago and should be among the main contenders in this rather weak field. The race favourite Afkar, from the Clive Brittain stable should provide the main threat. I cannot see Enchanted Dream out of the placings, so I recommend her as a Place.
Place: Enchanted Dream
Monday, November 7, 2011
Week-end to remember
A huge week-end indeed it was as 9 out of the 11 recommendations worked wonders, 1 voided (Liverpool) and 1 lost (Barcelona to win). It would have been tops if the Blaugrana had won, but even so, the rest made up for a week-end to remember.
In football, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Man City, Aston Villa, Chelsea all won, Liverpool drew for a voided punt, and Barcelona only drew as well. It was a close shave for the Red Devils who only had to thank old team-mate Wes Brown for an own goal. Barcelona were undone by an unplayable field, that's one of the ways to stop them. Real Madrid are now 3 points clear and the Catalans will be mindful to mind the gap.
Racing was tops with Goldikova justifying the confidence of a Place result, and beating Strong Suit in a match-bet. Though jockey Peslier certainly caused trouble to the others with a petulant change of lane to give his mount clear daylight, I doubt that the affected horses could have toppled the Queen for the third place finish without the incident. Laying Strong Suit and Uncle Mo proved justifiable and rewarding, particularly that I don't usually recommend lays, unless they are that obvious.
Some of my other observations from the Breeders Cup. St Nicholas Abbey finally showed the form many, including I, were expecting him to run since his dominating juvenile year. He was simply outstanding and would have given the best middle-distance horses a run for their money on that day. A peach of a ride from Joseph O'Brien as well.
So You Think ran well and I thought he had a great chance entering the straight but in the end, his effort was very gallant, finishing not too far to the winner. The lesson yet again from those World Championships is that European runners are tough to beat on turf just as the dirt is the domain of the US runners. There are bound to be exceptions like Arazi, Johannesburg and Court Vision, but the greater probability will mostly prevail.
On the local scene, Paul Hanagan won his second consecutive jockey championship. But the jockey that met the eye this year was certainly Silvestre de Sousa. A fantastically powerful finisher, there's no doubt that he can improve up and bounds to become among the best in the business. He is certainly to be followed as from now on.
In football, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Man City, Aston Villa, Chelsea all won, Liverpool drew for a voided punt, and Barcelona only drew as well. It was a close shave for the Red Devils who only had to thank old team-mate Wes Brown for an own goal. Barcelona were undone by an unplayable field, that's one of the ways to stop them. Real Madrid are now 3 points clear and the Catalans will be mindful to mind the gap.
Racing was tops with Goldikova justifying the confidence of a Place result, and beating Strong Suit in a match-bet. Though jockey Peslier certainly caused trouble to the others with a petulant change of lane to give his mount clear daylight, I doubt that the affected horses could have toppled the Queen for the third place finish without the incident. Laying Strong Suit and Uncle Mo proved justifiable and rewarding, particularly that I don't usually recommend lays, unless they are that obvious.
Some of my other observations from the Breeders Cup. St Nicholas Abbey finally showed the form many, including I, were expecting him to run since his dominating juvenile year. He was simply outstanding and would have given the best middle-distance horses a run for their money on that day. A peach of a ride from Joseph O'Brien as well.
So You Think ran well and I thought he had a great chance entering the straight but in the end, his effort was very gallant, finishing not too far to the winner. The lesson yet again from those World Championships is that European runners are tough to beat on turf just as the dirt is the domain of the US runners. There are bound to be exceptions like Arazi, Johannesburg and Court Vision, but the greater probability will mostly prevail.
On the local scene, Paul Hanagan won his second consecutive jockey championship. But the jockey that met the eye this year was certainly Silvestre de Sousa. A fantastically powerful finisher, there's no doubt that he can improve up and bounds to become among the best in the business. He is certainly to be followed as from now on.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Huge Week-end
A fantastic week-end of racing and football is on the menu, and it's hoping that the punts turn out to be as great as well.
Let's start with the Breeders' Cup where I cannot see Goldikova coming out of the placings. Draw is good, track is good and she's encountered better opposition. I can foresee just 2 negatives, if any. That she could get boxed in the straight from the rails. But I hardly see that happening with a seasoned jockey like Peslier. The second negative would be if the turf turned too soft. It looks like it will be a mixture of good to yielding; obviously the firmer, the better for her, but the ground conditions should be alright for her. I think the Queen is set to win her last race, and if she doesn't, she should be in the second or third. A Place recommendation on Goldikova looks safe to me.
In the same race, I re-iterate my previous observation that Strong Suit does not have the credentials to win this race. He's too short at 4/1 and is a big lay in my books. I cannot see him winning a match-bet against Goldikova. So I recommend a Lay to Win on him, and I also confidently recommend Goldikova in a match-bet against him.
The main race is the one everyone wants to win and So You Think will carry Europe's or Australasia's hopes, whichever angle you look at it. It will be a tall order for the son of High Chaparral. Pedigree-wise, the dirt will not suit. He's going to sport blinkers which he hasn't done since a couple of years back. He comes over a difficult October with 2 hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes. Basically, he's got hardly any decent rest for this race. Remains to be seen how jockey Ryan Moore will cope on the dirt surface. To be seen whether trainer O'Brien has mismanaged him yet again. All questions marks of note, but if there is a horse who can do it against the odds, it will be him. His critics pound him for not being the super horse he was billed out to be Down Under. Maybe he disappointed in 3 losses in Europe, but to me, there were excuses to all of them, which I've covered at length before. He gained my admiration when nearly winning the Champion Stakes after only 13 days rest from the Arc. I hope he wins the Classic, but it is more hope than confidence.
Uncle Mo is the favourite of the race and although he is possibly the best miler on dirt, he will have to stretch to cover the 10 furlongs. Any chance he had of winning was scuppered with his outside draw, in my estimate. He is a stalker of a horse that is never off the pace and things will be harder for him from the outside post. His odds are way too short and it makes sense to oppose him; I recommend to Lay him as Win.
In football, I cannot think of a better way for Man Utd to celebrate Alex Ferguson's extraordinary 25 years at the helm, by beating Sunderland. Steve Bruce's men have no chance of winning this. If they are lucky, they can squeeze in a point. But I believe the Red Devils will win this and recommend them as an outright Win.
Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are all recommended as draw-no-bets as I don't see them being bothered by the inferior opposition they will be facing.
In La Liga, Real Madrid is a banker to beat Osasuna. I just cannot see them being held by Osasuna, so I recommend the Los Blancos as an outright Win. Barcelona face an arguably tougher task in Athletico Bilbao but they should prevail at the end, and are also recommended as a straight Win.
Let's start with the Breeders' Cup where I cannot see Goldikova coming out of the placings. Draw is good, track is good and she's encountered better opposition. I can foresee just 2 negatives, if any. That she could get boxed in the straight from the rails. But I hardly see that happening with a seasoned jockey like Peslier. The second negative would be if the turf turned too soft. It looks like it will be a mixture of good to yielding; obviously the firmer, the better for her, but the ground conditions should be alright for her. I think the Queen is set to win her last race, and if she doesn't, she should be in the second or third. A Place recommendation on Goldikova looks safe to me.
In the same race, I re-iterate my previous observation that Strong Suit does not have the credentials to win this race. He's too short at 4/1 and is a big lay in my books. I cannot see him winning a match-bet against Goldikova. So I recommend a Lay to Win on him, and I also confidently recommend Goldikova in a match-bet against him.
The main race is the one everyone wants to win and So You Think will carry Europe's or Australasia's hopes, whichever angle you look at it. It will be a tall order for the son of High Chaparral. Pedigree-wise, the dirt will not suit. He's going to sport blinkers which he hasn't done since a couple of years back. He comes over a difficult October with 2 hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes. Basically, he's got hardly any decent rest for this race. Remains to be seen how jockey Ryan Moore will cope on the dirt surface. To be seen whether trainer O'Brien has mismanaged him yet again. All questions marks of note, but if there is a horse who can do it against the odds, it will be him. His critics pound him for not being the super horse he was billed out to be Down Under. Maybe he disappointed in 3 losses in Europe, but to me, there were excuses to all of them, which I've covered at length before. He gained my admiration when nearly winning the Champion Stakes after only 13 days rest from the Arc. I hope he wins the Classic, but it is more hope than confidence.
Uncle Mo is the favourite of the race and although he is possibly the best miler on dirt, he will have to stretch to cover the 10 furlongs. Any chance he had of winning was scuppered with his outside draw, in my estimate. He is a stalker of a horse that is never off the pace and things will be harder for him from the outside post. His odds are way too short and it makes sense to oppose him; I recommend to Lay him as Win.
In football, I cannot think of a better way for Man Utd to celebrate Alex Ferguson's extraordinary 25 years at the helm, by beating Sunderland. Steve Bruce's men have no chance of winning this. If they are lucky, they can squeeze in a point. But I believe the Red Devils will win this and recommend them as an outright Win.
Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are all recommended as draw-no-bets as I don't see them being bothered by the inferior opposition they will be facing.
In La Liga, Real Madrid is a banker to beat Osasuna. I just cannot see them being held by Osasuna, so I recommend the Los Blancos as an outright Win. Barcelona face an arguably tougher task in Athletico Bilbao but they should prevail at the end, and are also recommended as a straight Win.
Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City Place: Goldikova
Match-bet: Goldikova
Lay: Strong Suit, Uncle Mo
Thursday, November 3, 2011
A Strong Lay
Bayern, Man Utd won as expected while Benfica drew with Basle for a voided punt.
A few developments in horse racing that of worthy of note in the past days. First, the news that Born To Sea had torn a muscle in his surprise defeat to Nephrite last Sunday. If that injury hampered the son of Urban Sea in any way, then there's hope that his defeat wasn't due to a lack of talent; he might still be able to give justice to the high opinion of him by the racing world, primarily due to his regal pedigree. After Sunday, his stock had taken a beating and his ante-post odds for next year's Guineas shot up from 6's to the current 14's. While I am not a fan of such markets, serious ante-post punters would be hard-pressed to find better value and might want a crack; if he stays healthy, this horse can become a serious miler next year, in my opinion.
The Breeders Cup starts on Friday with a very competitive card, but the main races of interest are really run on Saturday. At this point, I am at a loss as to why there is a such a strong interest in Strong Suit in the BC Mile. He's got the poorest of draws, he's far from a proven Group 1 winner, he's unproven on the 2-turn track, and he's going to encounter mighty Goldikova. To top it all, he was unable to train properly today along with some other English raiders, resulting in the top-headline drama between the track officials and some English trainers. To me, Strong Suit is a big lay for the Win. Goldikova will certainly beat him in any match-bet, in my opinion. I will wait for tomorrow's events to draw confirmation on all this, but I really think opposing the Hannon star would be rewarding on Saturday.
A few developments in horse racing that of worthy of note in the past days. First, the news that Born To Sea had torn a muscle in his surprise defeat to Nephrite last Sunday. If that injury hampered the son of Urban Sea in any way, then there's hope that his defeat wasn't due to a lack of talent; he might still be able to give justice to the high opinion of him by the racing world, primarily due to his regal pedigree. After Sunday, his stock had taken a beating and his ante-post odds for next year's Guineas shot up from 6's to the current 14's. While I am not a fan of such markets, serious ante-post punters would be hard-pressed to find better value and might want a crack; if he stays healthy, this horse can become a serious miler next year, in my opinion.
The Breeders Cup starts on Friday with a very competitive card, but the main races of interest are really run on Saturday. At this point, I am at a loss as to why there is a such a strong interest in Strong Suit in the BC Mile. He's got the poorest of draws, he's far from a proven Group 1 winner, he's unproven on the 2-turn track, and he's going to encounter mighty Goldikova. To top it all, he was unable to train properly today along with some other English raiders, resulting in the top-headline drama between the track officials and some English trainers. To me, Strong Suit is a big lay for the Win. Goldikova will certainly beat him in any match-bet, in my opinion. I will wait for tomorrow's events to draw confirmation on all this, but I really think opposing the Hannon star would be rewarding on Saturday.
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Champions League Wednesday
What a thrilling Melbourne Cup that was. Like many, I thought Americain stayed way too far and should have won that race. But credit to the winner Dunaden for digging deep when it looked like Red Cadeaux had it in the bag.
Still on the racing front, the stall draws for the Breeders Cup were made on Monday, and Goldikova was granted the No 1 rail. There is no doubt that this plays greatly in her favour. She can be tucked in her usual stalking position and provided she does not get boxed in or suffers from a novice pilot error, she should be poised to make the difference in the straight. At this point, my confidence in her to win No.4 BC Turf Mile has greatly increased with her draw.
Wednesday night is another round of Champions League football and I like Bayern Munich as they host Napoli. The Germans are very difficult to break down at the Olympic stadium and Napoli just does not have the team or European pedigree to cause an upset in Germany. I recommend Bayern as a draw-no-bet.
Benfica play host to Basel and I cannot see the Swiss causing an upset there. Benfica are strong at home and unless they misfire, they should be taking 3 points out of this contest. I recommend them as a safe draw-no-bet. In the same group, Man Utd play Otelul which they beat, albeit with difficulty, in Romania. The Red Devils are not in great form but they should still have too much class and firepower for the Romanians. The return of Tom Cleverley will do wonders for their midfield, in my opinion, as their play seems to be more dynamic with him. Man Utd is recommended as a draw-no-bet as well.
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich, Benfica, Man Utd
Still on the racing front, the stall draws for the Breeders Cup were made on Monday, and Goldikova was granted the No 1 rail. There is no doubt that this plays greatly in her favour. She can be tucked in her usual stalking position and provided she does not get boxed in or suffers from a novice pilot error, she should be poised to make the difference in the straight. At this point, my confidence in her to win No.4 BC Turf Mile has greatly increased with her draw.
Wednesday night is another round of Champions League football and I like Bayern Munich as they host Napoli. The Germans are very difficult to break down at the Olympic stadium and Napoli just does not have the team or European pedigree to cause an upset in Germany. I recommend Bayern as a draw-no-bet.
Benfica play host to Basel and I cannot see the Swiss causing an upset there. Benfica are strong at home and unless they misfire, they should be taking 3 points out of this contest. I recommend them as a safe draw-no-bet. In the same group, Man Utd play Otelul which they beat, albeit with difficulty, in Romania. The Red Devils are not in great form but they should still have too much class and firepower for the Romanians. The return of Tom Cleverley will do wonders for their midfield, in my opinion, as their play seems to be more dynamic with him. Man Utd is recommended as a draw-no-bet as well.
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich, Benfica, Man Utd
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