Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Bayern vs Real - 1st Leg UCL

Here we go, Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid 1st leg semi-final UCL.

Bayern Munich have a lot of motivations to reach the final; the final will be at their Olympic stadium; they are out of contention in the Bundesliga and their UCL is their only hope of silverware. They have history behind them, having not lost to Real Madrid in the competition. They are hungry, they have top-class players in Ribery, Robben, Muller, Lahm, Gomez and Schweinsteiger.

On the other side comes a formidable free-scoring Madrid team with 2 great assets; Christiano Ronaldo, the second-best player in the world, and Mourinho, an unparalleled maestro for such occasions. The Spanish team has only tasted defeat once since the start of the year, in the Copa del Rey against Barcelona. Mourinho knows this Bayern team well since he beat them (with about the same core players) in the UCL final a couple of years ago with Inter Milan.

In my opinion, if logic prevails, Real should go through after 2 legs. Bayern is good, but not to the level of the Spaniards. They will need to play 2 perfect games to have a chance to go through. I cannot see it happening. The way I see it, tonight's game will be tight, with either team having a chance to win it and a draw being the most probable outcome. If Bayern are to win it, it won't be by more than 2 goals, so a +1.0 goal for Real on the Asian Handicap looks very safe. Over the 2 games, Real Madrid should qualify, and that is the recommendation as well.

To qualify: Real Madrid
Asian Handicap: Real Madrid +1.0

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