Wednesday, July 18, 2012

British Open 2012

As expected, David Haye was too strong for Chisora. I hope there is a second Battle of Britain between those two (as there usually is), because I think Haye would win again.

Surprise, surprise, yesterday's headline news saw one of Tour de France's favourites, Frank Schleck, leave the race because of a failed drug test. How credible is that tour, or any other tour for that matter? Cycling definitely will fit well at the Olympics, siege of rampant drug use. No Olympics is complete without a sensational drug scandal.

Tomorrow, the British Open takes centre of attention, and many pundits are talking about an ominous starting point for Tiger Woods to resume his Major quest after 4 barren years.  It's amazing to think that it has been that long. Today's Tiger is not the same as the old dominating one, he's become unpredictable to say the least. But like most others, I'm sure there are more Majors in him, I just don't know if it will start at Royal Lytham this week-end.

This major is probably the most open there is, no pun intended. The weather and design of the link course play a crucial role. It will not be surprising that the big guns fail and that it goes to a novice Major winner. The last time in 2001, it gave David Duval his first and only Major.

So I believe the safest way to start the punting is to find a group of players that will make the cut on Saturday. If we can call that process relatively safe, I suppose. Unless they are bestowed with unbelievable foul weather or do not have their A game for the first 2 days, I believe the following are good value to make the cut (at least in first 70 of 156) at their current odds;

Tiger Woods - evidently.
Lee Westwood - he should make the cut, but I don't think he'll win it.
Ernie Els - will have gotten confidence from his US Open showing. Great links player. 3rd in 2001.
Jimenez - almost always in the thick of things. 5th in 2001. A little risk but with great reward.
Padraig Harrington - getting back to form after 4th at the US Open this year. Big-game player.

I would caution against the following ones that are prominent names in the market.

Rory McIlroy - his mind is probably more focused on the coming Olympics cheering Caroline Wozniak.
Mickelson - probably will make the cut, but the British Open has never been his thing.
Luke Donald - poor record in recent Majors. No 1 means nothing in these tournaments.

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