Kempton Tuesday preview

The race cards at Kempton are usually very competitive with big fields and there haven't been many opportunities there lately. On Tuesday, the 18:50 Maiden race contain several exposed types and it might be beneficial to side with Tropical Beat from the powerful John Gosden yard. This son of Beat Hollow only raced once last term and came out of honourable 5th at Lingfield. He is bred to stay and a seasonal return at 10 furlongs seems appropriate. Provided he lost none of the ability he showed on his debut, he should be among the finishers against this lowly opposition and is fancied to finish in the first 2 for a Place.

Place: Tropical Beat.

Musings from the week-end.

6 winning recommendations out of 8, with the remaining 2 voided, is what I would call a super week-end. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Lazio, Inter and Napoli all won, while Arsenal and Tottenham drew for voided bets.

Man Utd have that will to win, and even with 10 men, they managed to get the 3 points. It's been well reported that this is no vintage Man Utd team, but I would say this Man Utd team is by far over-performing than its predecessors. Of course, their hopes for the title are being greatly aided by the misfiring of their rivals, none more so than Arsenal that can't shake off their 'choker' mantra. The Gunners could still win it at the end, given their easier schedule, but losing 5 points to West Brom is not what you would typically call title-deserving. Chelsea are winning again but they have too much ground to cover. Man City and Tottenham definitely look out of it.

In La Liga, it was business as usual with Barcelona and Real Madrid winning. This is just great from a punting point of view as the results are very predictable. At this point, these 2 teams are doing enough to win their matches, with their minds on their direct clashes in League and Cup games and most possibly Champions League. Mouth-watering prospects for football fans.

In Italy, Inter are only 2 points back of Milan. Their improbable qualification at the hands of Bayern in the Champions League will have given them renewed self-confidence, and this team is certainly good enough to win the Serie A again, and also reach the final of the Champions League. Milan seem to be out of gas, and the momentum is definitely on Inter's side.

Some off-field football news with Capello handling the armband to Terry again. It amuses me that the protagonists in this saga namely Capello, Terry and Ferdinand are making such a big story out of it. Does the England fan care? Or does the England fan care whether these flops are going to finally win a trophy? The whole England setup (team, staff) have left such disappointment in the wake of the last World Cup that the decisions or indecisions about the captaincy sound superfluous.

Finally a note on racing where it was announced today that Bold Silvano won't make the Dubai World Cup. Shame really, I had real hopes on seeing him in the first 3. Also, Snow Fairy won't make the Scheema Classic. Oh well, I'm sure there'll be lots of opportunities on the race card to pounce on. This week I'll sure be keeping up to date with the developments and countdown leading to this great meeting. And I'll be sure to keep this blog posted on any value bets I can find on the all-weather cards and football. Thanks for staying tuned.

Week-end Preview.

Big Buck's won the World Hurdle for a record 3rd consecutive time. Glad the recommendation won, and that was my first and last foray on jump racing for this season!

Before I get to the week-end football preview, some comments on the Champions League match-ups that came up earlier during the day. Man Utd v/s Chelsea will be tight with slight advantage to Man Utd in my opinion. Tottenham v/s Madrid, it will be interesting to see how Redknapp plays Mourinho's team. I'm inclined to check how the English coach fared against Chelsea during the Special One's tenure in England. Could it have gotten any easier for Barcelona? Probably not. As I see it, if teams play to their strength, we are going towards a Barcelona v/s Madrid, and Man Utd v/s Inter semi-finals... But injuries always seem to play a part, so fingers crossed and we'll get to the matches in due time.

This week-end's Premier League match-ups sees Man City travelling to a seemingly-resurgent Chelsea. The other leaders will be hoping that this ends in a draw. Man Utd host Bolton in what should be a tough encounter as they are missing so many players and Bolton are no slouch. At the end, I don't expect Man Utd to lose this game, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet. Tottenham host West Ham and there won't be better opportunities for them to get 3 points. West Ham are playing well of late but are quite woeful on the road.  I recommend Tottenham as a draw-no-bet as I don't see them losing this one. Arsenal travel to West Brom in what on paper looks a formality for them. The Gunners come from a depressing fortnight when they've been bounced from 3 Cups! West Brom might offer some form resistance under new coach Hodgson, but in the end, Arsenal will either prevail or end up with a draw (which won't suit them). A draw-no-bet on Arsenal looks safe and is recommended.

In Spain, Barcelona can widen the gap at the top. They will beat Getafe. A win is recommended. Real Madrid face an arguably difficult derby game at Athletico, to whom they haven't lost to for the past 11 years, by the way! The Los Blancos played a tough match in the Champions League mid-week game against Lyon but they have a big enough squad to cope. I think this game will either end in a draw or a Real win. So a draw-no-bet on Real is recommended.

In Italy, I like Lazio, Inter, and Napoli in their home games against lowly teams. There's no sure win for any team in today's Serie A, so a draw-no-bet on all these 3 teams is recommended.


Win: Barcelona.
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Man Utd, Tottenham, Real Madrid, Lazio, Inter, Napoli.

A Cheltenham look!

Another winning recommendation as Real Madrid won its game and made it through to the next round. The draw for the quarter-finals match-ups will be awaited with baited breath as usual, and needless to say, no-one wants to draw the Big One Barcelona, although you can read statements like "we can beat anyone, bring on Barcelona" in the press!

Like you know and as I mentioned before, I don't know much about jump racing. I know about the Cheltenham festival though and there isn't any doubt that the 4-day Festival is as exciting, or even more exciting for National Hunt fans, than any existing Flat programme on offer (Royal Ascot meeting, Breeders Cup etc). Even so, I refrain from venturing into jump racing because I find it hard to handicap the form of horses that can so easily fall prey to a mistake on an obstacle. Still, I open my eyes during the Festival, to have a passive look at the superstars on show. And there is one that takes the eye in the form Big Bucks. The Paul Nicholls horse is undefeated on hurdles and will aim to do a three-peat on Wednesday's World Hurdle. I was somewhat surprised that the trainer himself mentioned that Big Bucks was only his second best chance to win at the Festival, and his other star (among many!) Master Minded was his best chance for a win. The latter flopped today, so it remains to be seen how exposed is Big Bucks. On many books, the big question for the World Hurdle is whether newcomer Grands Crus can upend reigning champion Big Bucks. In my opinion, whether he three-peats or not, Big Bucks should be in the first 2 or 3. So I recommend him as a Place.

Place: Big Bucks

Real Madrid to go through

Sir Alex Ferguson is right; when it comes to the European matches, Man Utd have that magic at home. Without half of their first-team, they can still find a way to win on a European Cup night. I just finished watching the game and it was pretty entertaining end to end stuff; it had to be as Utd scored so early through Chicharito.

On Wednesday, I like Real Madrid's chances against Lyon. The hosts need only a goalless draw to advance, but I am pretty sure they will score as well. Mourinho's record at home in European matches is nearly as good as his League home record, and I cannot see them losing at home. I can already hear him boast that Madrid have made progress this year under him by finally going past Lyon! Real Madrid as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

Draw-no-bet: Real Madrid

A huge test for Man Utd

Not a bad week-end with 3 out of 5 recommendations winning, and the remaining 2 voided. Real Madrid, Man City and Lille won, while Milan and Bremen drew their matches. As long as we keep away from the losing punts, things are good. Not much exciting things to report over the week-end. In La Liga, Madrid cut Barcelona's lead by 2 points to give a glimmer of hope to its supporters. In England, the Manchester teams won their quarter-final matches to ensure that they will meet in the semi-final. Really interesting match-up indeed. In Italy, leaders Milan confirmed that they were far from being dominant leaders by failing to beat lowly Bari. The Italian league is really sub-par compared to the English and Spanish ones.

It's the Champion League matches determining the final set of quarter-finals that take all of the football attention this week. A huge huge night tomorrow Tuesday awaits Man Utd as they host Marseille. After a drab goalless draw in the first leg, the Red Devils will have to beat the French champions to ensure qualification. With their current injury problems, it won't be easy for Utd and I can't believe that they are almost 1/3 on the exchanges to qualify. No Park, Ferdinand, Fletcher, Anderson. Latest reports suggest that Nani will make it. If he didn't, I just couldn't find a way for Utd to go through. This Marseille team is solid on the road and they emphasized this masterfully by going to win at previously unbeaten Rennes (at home) last week. If they happen to score first, they are good enough to park the bus in front of goal. Man Utd's chances rest massively on Nani, who provides their main threat for scoring goals. If he fails to fire, then Ferguson will have to hope that Valencia can contribute at such a high level on only his second game after such a long layoff. Really, I think the 3/1 current odds for Marseille to qualify represent good value. I can't outright recommend it though because this match can go either way, and there are no sure-fire predictions on this one. The old fox Ferguson will certainly have his players motivated, and maybe a trick or two up his sleeve, but it will have to be an exceptional Man Utd team that produces their best performance of the past weeks, to win this game. As it stands, I think they really have their backs to the wall on this one.

Week-end Football Preview

First, my thoughts to the Japanese people following the devastating quake and tsunami. I don't think I've ever seen such kind of devastation. There are Japanese readers to this blog, and I keep my fingers crossed for you.

On Thursday, got a great result in the shape of Braga's win over Liverpool. At odds-against, the prediction on Braga's draw-no-bet win was one of the best and most satisfying on this blog. At Meydan, as mentioned, Godolphin was dominating. Mike de Kock's Here To Win disappointed though with an unplaced finish, and coincidence or not, whenever the big trainer is not on the premises (was in Johannesburg), the results are not as positive. Alluding to this because at one time a couple of years back, Mike himself was mentioning that there was a perception that whenever he was enjoying success in Dubai, his horses based in South Africa were not doing as well.

A busy week-end of football coming up on the European front. In England, FA Cup rules with a juicy Man Utd hosting Arsenal. This is my take on Man Utd at the present. Last year they lost out on the domestic League and Champions League in a 7-day span where they hit poor form and injuries for 3 consecutive crucial games, which ended up wrecking their pursuit of major trophies. A similar script seems to be developing for them at this time. They first hit major injuries by losing Anderson, Ferdinand, Park, and now Nani. Then Vidic their defensive rock got suspended. These, coupled with indifferent form, have resulted in defeats at Wolves, Chelsea and Liverpool. So now, come Arsenal, and more importantly Marseille, and they will still be without their best 2 midfielders in Nani and Park. It does not look rosy for them in the short term, and you feel that they do need that little extra luck in games to get out of the predicament that they are presently in. Man Utd v/s Arsenal really can go either way, and I feel the Red Devils will be keeping their best team for the Marseille game next week.

I was mentioning before FA Cup matches are unpredictable and are to be mostly avoided, but when Man City is hosting Reading at this stage, I've got to recommended City at least as a draw-no-bet. The Citizens just come from a debacle travel in the Europa League, and Reading are giant killers, but I simply cannot see them overcome the massively talented squad at Eastlands. Even if Mancini plays his second team, they won't be beaten at home against the Championship side.

In Italy. I've got to go with Milan against Bari. Milan got bumped by Tottenham in mid-week Champions League and will be keen to make amends. The Serie A is their hope for silverware, and it won't come any easier than Bari. Because of their mid-week exertions, a draw-no-bet on Milan is recommended.

In Spain, Mourinho has started the mind games with Barcelona as he becomes desperate to overcome the gap with the Catalans. Madrid host Hercules, and it's a straight Win recommendation for Mourinho's men. Sevilla hosts Barcelona in what should be a pretty tight affair. I would not be surprised to see Barcelona lose points here. In fact, Sevilla are dangerous enough to create problems and win this game against a Barcelona team that might be exposed having played in mid-week. I'll abstain from a recommendation on this one.

In Germany, I see value in backing Werder Bremen as it hosts last-place Monchengladbach. Bremen are better than the lowly position they are in, and I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

In France, Lille plays hosts to Valenciennes and I expect Lille to win this, as they are really good at home. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.


Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Milan, Werder Bremen, Lille

Meydan and Europa Thursday Preview

Tottenham just drew with Milan to qualify for the next round for a voided draw-no-bet recommendation! Great stuff Spurs and another feat for manager Redknapp.

In the Europa League on Thursday, I like Portuguese outfit Braga as it hosts Liverpool. The hosts beat a strong Benfica team over the week-end and have an excellent record at home. Liverpool are fresh from their win over Man Utd, but will be missing some players, none more important than their captain Gerrard. So the Reds are very exposed going into this game. I recommend Braga as a draw-no-bet.

Thursday's Meydan card is very average with a lot of second strings involved. I expect Godolphin to dominate this meeting as de Kock only runs a handful of horses in competitive fields. Their best chance is Here to Win, a mare that has been beaten on 3 starts, but which could find the Handicap race she runs in more to her liking. If she does not miss the break as she's prone to and rides close to the pace, she's in with a major chance. I recommend her as a Place.

Place: Here to Win.
Draw-no-bet: Braga

Major breakthrough for Tottenham?

Barcelona won as expected in what has surely been a massive confidence booster to them as they advance to the next round. They deserve to go through and now they know they can overcome any deficit that can sometimes happen to them on their travels. As for Arsenal, they are down to 2 trophies after ridiculous boasting of a possible 4 some weeks earlier. It's their lucklessness that they had to face Barcelona at this stage and while it's up to debate whether Van Persie was wrongfully red-carded, which changed the face of the game, Barcelona were the better team in both legs.

On Wednesday, it's Tottenham hosting Milan in what is a massive challenge and opportunity for Harry Rednapp's men. This Tottenham team is exciting, adventurous and fearless with or without Bale and Van der Vaart. I hope for real football fans that they qualify tomorrow because they play better football than Milan, with less-known players. In fact, my head thinks they will qualify. At their current odds, a draw-no-bet on them looks good value and is recommended. There is nothing extraordinary with this Milan team. Their players talk a lot, but there is only one player that really dangerous by himself in this team, and it's Alexander Pato. If Tottenham's average defence can contain him, they have a great chance. Tottenham will most probably score, it's up to their defence to hold things tight.

Draw-no-bet: Tottenham

Arsenal in the Nou Camp cauldron

Chelsea expectedly won without much sweat against Blackpool for an easy winning recommendation.

Tomorrow Tuesday, the focus is on the return match between Barcelona and Arsenal. Were it not for 5 minutes of madness in the first leg, the Catalans should already have sealed their qualification for the next stage. They actually overwhelmingly deserved to win that match and were on course to do so until Arsenal capitalized on 2 rare counter-attacks. The reality though is that Barcelona now need to put a dominating display to overcome the first-leg deficit. Rewind last year, and Barcelona were in an almost similar situation against Inter and came up short. This time, they only have 1 goal to overcome, and most importantly, they play an Arsenal team that has a lot of breaches in its defence. The negatives for Barcelona are as follows: absence of their coach Guardiola for the past week, and absence of their first-choice centre-backs in Pique and most certainly Puyol. On the other hand, Arsenal will miss one of their best offensive weapons in Walcott, and Fabregas and Van Persie are not sure to be at 100% if they succeed in making it to the game.

If Arsenal score first, it will put an unprecedented pressure on the hosts, and radically change the context of the game. The expectation will be for Barcelona to open the scoring and thus the game completely. I just cannot see Arsenal winning over there if Van Persie and Fabregas fail to play. Even if they do, the Barcelona forwards will find ways to open up the Gunners defence. Arsenal could score over there, but in the end they will be outscored. I recommend Barcelona as a draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona

Chelsea to prolong their illusory chances

Great week-end punts with 4 predictions winning and one voided punt, out of 5. Barcelona, Madrid, Man City and Inter all won, while Napoli drew for a voided result.

The Premier League is now blown wide open with another defeat of Man Utd, this time to Liverpool. Arsenal (again) failed to capitalize on Saturday by drawing a blank at home to Sunderland. Chelsea can reduce the gap when they travel to Blackpool on Monday. I expect the Blues to be pumped up for this encounter, and they should end up winning this as the hosts are not the same team without their skipper Charlie Adams. A draw-no-bet on Chelsea is recommended.


Draw-no-bet: Chelsea

Week-end Football Preview

The recommendation on Borussia Dortmund was good as they beat Cologne and look to win the title in a canter. It's another loaded week-end of European football coming up.

In the Premier League, Man Utd travel to their arch-rivals Liverpool where sparks will certainly fly. The Kops will be keen to put a dent in Utd's hopes of landing the title that would surpass them as the winning-est team in English football. Man Utd are the better team and deserved favourites but the game itself can go either way, so no recommendation on that one. I like Man City's chances at home to Wigan. Although City have lacked some cutting edge of late, and will feel the effects of losing Kolo Toure to suspension, they should have enough strength in their squad to overcome Wigan. A draw-no-bet on them is recommended.

In the Serie A, I like Inter and Napoli as they host Genoa and Brescia respectively. Draw-no-bets on both of the hosts look safe and are recommended.

In Spain, Barcelona should win at home against Zaragoza, and Real Madrid should not lose at Santander. Although the Arsenal Champions League game is bound to be on the minds of the Catalans and there is a question mark as to what effect missing their coach Pep Guardiola for the past days and on the bench will have, it should be normal procedure for them to overcome Zaragoza. A Win on them is recommended. Real Madrid suffered a mid-week blow in losing Ronaldo to injury and it remains to be seen how it will affect them. I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Inter, Napoli, Real Madrid

Impressive Twice Over

Real Madrid won big time but even their big wins will be only academic if Barcelona keep winning. In racing, Simon de Montfort tailed off in his race won by his stable-mate Monterosso. A disappointing result, and it will be interesting to hear from the connections what actually happened to the King Best colt. Musir was a game second behind Twice Over and was a good Place prediction. There are really two things that I can conclude at the end of this race; Musir is a pure miler and is best at 8-9 furlongs. He will have to stretch if he is to win the Dubai World Cup. Second, Twice Over couldn't have been more impressive with his comeback run, and is certainly a live contender for winning the DWC. I thought a couple of weeks ago that this race could not get out of the grasp of Mike de Kock with his duo of Bold Silvano and Musir, but Twice Over is making me think things over! Really exciting to say the least, and I hope that Buena Vista can show her mettle in the weeks ahead too.

On Friday, I like Borussia Dortmund as it hosts Cologne in the Bundesliga. Dortmund should win this, and at the very least draw as they march towards the title. So a draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Borussia Dortmund

Meydan super Thursday

Arsenal and Barcelona won, but Bayern Munich surprisingly lost at home to Schalke. I can't recall in recent years Bayern losing 2 games in a row at home, but under Van Gaal, they are doing things that have not traditionally happened to them. Barcelona won an important 3 points at Valencia. Real Madrid plays on Thursday and should take the 3 points at home against Malaga. A Win on the Lost Blancos is recommended.

The Super Thursday card at Meydan has some really juicy match-ups. I like Musir in the Maktoum Round 3 Challenge.  Obviously Twice Over will be making his seasonal debut and is the one to watch, but I suspect the Henry Cecil colt will need the run and will only be made to peak come the Dubai World Cup. I fancy Musir as a Place for this race. He might also be WIN good-value at 4/1 for the more adventurous. I also like Simon de Montfort as Place in the Dubai City of Gold Stakes. If he runs to his true potential, there is no-one in this race to match him. The dark horse is Interaction, the Argentinian star, who was only 3 lengths in 3rd from Bold Silvano on his seasonal debut.

Win: Real Madrid
Place: Musir, Simon de Montfort

Wednesday football

The week-end predictions went all very well with the exception of Arsenal losing the Carling Cup final. Aston Villa, Man Utd and Barcelona won, while Madrid drew for a voided bet. But Arsenal choked again on the big day and can't seem to buy a trophy. This loss was extremely devastating in many ways; they needed to win a trophy to appease fans and themselves after six barren years. The fact that they played most of their first-team and couldn't win against a team like Birmingham have put into serious doubt any pretense they had of being ripe for glory. I personally think they will win nothing again this year.But the Gunners will win tomorrow against Leyton Orient in their FA Cup re-match. That's a recommended Win.

In La Liga, Madrid lost pace again over the week-end by drawing at Deportivo. Tomorrow sees Barcelona travelling to Valencia where a win will see them open a 10-point gap against their eternal rivals. Valencia is a tough place for any team to go win and I don't think Guardiola has ever won over there in his two years coaching Barcelona. Still, I don't see Barcelona losing this one, and a draw-no-bet on them is recommended.

In the German Cup, Bayern Munich host Schalke and I like the hosts' chances in this one. Bayern lost at home over the week-end Borussia Dortmund who are simply the best team in Germany. Schalke is just not of the same caliber as Dortmund and the Cup will be a major chance for Bayern to win some silverware this season as they have practically no hope of winning the League. A draw-no-bet on Bayern is recommended.

Win: Arsenal
Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Bayern Munich