Real Payback

Pretty busy football week on the old continent.

In the Spanish games on Wednesday, it looks hard to see Real Madrid losing 2 games in a row. They are facing a Santander team struggling in the relegation area and it's a golden opportunity for them to bag the 3 points and renew their winning ways. I recommend them as a Win. Barcelona face a trickier game at Valencia, possibly the best team in La Liga besides the 2 powerhouses. If the Blaugrana can win this match, it will be a massive 3 points. This game can go any way, so no certainties there, although Barcelona will be massive favorites particularly with Lionel Messi finding his scoring touch again.

In racing, I like Genius Step in the first race at Goodwood. The Al Zarooni team is on fire currently and this Dubawi colt makes his return to competition after a 116-day layoff. His debut was highly encouraging after a staying-on third at Newmarket. He looks the class of the race and provided the ground isn't too soft at Goodwood and he is fit enough, he should be in the first 3. My racing Place recommendation for Wednesday.


Win: Real Madrid
Place: Genius Step

Misfiring

I'm misfiring in football at the moment. Barcelona crushed Osasuna, but Arsenal, Bolton and Madrid lost, while Villa and Inter drew their matches for voided punts.

Backing the Gunners at this time is a mistake. Their defence is such a shambles that punters playing the "over 1.5 goals" in their matches must be having a field day. Their back four is as permissible as their offence is potent. But yet another loss this week-end means that Wenger's position at the helm looks really in danger. There is no doubt that popular support for the Frenchman is waning by the day, and unless the club can forge out a few good results in the coming weeks, the calls for him to resign or be fired will not dampen. This is all reminiscent of his last days at Monaco years ago where the results never improved whenever he was put under that kind of pressure.

Man Utd won the week-end battle against Chelsea and are definitely on the upward curve. Sure, they got the breaks in the match and the score could be somewhat flattering, but this young team is already finding a way to win. They will only get better and better, which isn't good news for the rest of the league. While Chelsea put in a decent performance, I still think this team needs an overhaul to be considered as title challengers. This is clearly a team that is in expiry time. And the sitter missed by Torres was just unbelievable. Clear fodder for his critics and something that will certainly not boost his low confidence. Well-taken goal though.

In Spain, it was oh Madrid! Gone were their chances when Khadeira was sent off during the first half. I mentioned in my preview that the Zagreb travel could take something out of them, but I I still expected them to put a decent show and score at least one goal. Knowing that Barcelona put in 8 the previous day should have given them enough drive against Levante. It didn't, and far from it, they came up very poorly. Maybe they are not as good as I thought.

Week-end football

Wakhan finished second for a winning recommendation.

I have quite a few selections for this week-end's football. In the EPL, I like Arsenal's chances as they travel to Blackburn. The Gunners are certainly a re-building team but they still have lots of quality. Rovers are one of my early picks for the drop and I cannot disagree with fans that are staging protests against their current manager. I see Arsenal taking at least a point from this travel, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

The best value bet of the week-end looks to be Aston Villa as they host Newcastle. I think Newcastle's excellent defensive record does not actually mirror its frailties at the back. Just looking at their last away game at QPR where they were nearly run out of the pitch and were lucky to come away with a goal-less draw. I can see Villa scoring at least one or two goals in this game. I recommend Villa as a draw-no-bet.

Bolton hosts Norwich and it's a great opportunity for the hosts to get the 3 points. Norwich is another that looks a good early candidate for the drop. Bolton as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

In the Serie A, I like Inter Milan's chances at home to Roma. The Romans are clearly a team out of sorts and will be good fodder for Sneijder and co. The hosts are in bad need of victory after losses on opening week and in the Champions League. I recommend Inter as a draw-no-bet as well.

In Spain, it's the same boring (but rewarding) story. Barcelona will resume winning ways at home to Osasuna and are selected as Win. Real Madrid face an arguably tougher test going to Levante where they lost 2 points last season. I certainly don't see them losing this game and chances are that they will win it. Since they are coming back from a difficult away game in Zagreb, the safest option is a draw-no-bet on the Los Blancos.No surprise if they end up winning this game in the last minutes.

Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bolton, Inter, Real Madrid.

Listowel Preview

Following Real Madrid proved rewarding again while Man Utd came up with a draw for a voided punt. I am waiting for the week-end to back those teams again, but I'll get there in due course.

On Friday, I like Wakhan in the 15:50 race at Listowel. This Dalakhani gelding makes his return to the racetrack after a 124-day absence after two encouraging seconds early this year. The mile and a half distance shouldn't be a problem, the only worry being the soft/heavy conditions that could expose any lack of fitness on his part. The opposition looks to be headed by Mutasharef and Smithfield which are both rated at 78. If fully wound-up, Wakhan should take this, but because of his 4 month lay-off and ground conditions, I would go for the safer option and recommend him as a Place.

Place: Wakhan

Champions League Wednesday

Draw-no-bets are great as they can save the wallet whenever a certain win gets smashed into a draw, just like in the case of the Barcelona v/s Milan match. Amazing that a team like Barcelona does not have proper backups to centre-halfs Puyol and Pique. If these are missing from their upcoming visit to Madrid in a few weeks time, the result will only go one way, as defensive midfielders Mascherano and Busquets clearly form a porous defensive pair at best.

I was mentioning that yesterday's CL games would be mouth-watering for draw purists. Four out of the 8 matches ended up drawn, so the 0.5 ratio means that was a fantastic night for picking draws.

I see Real Madrid and Man Utd winning their respective matches against Dynamo Zagreb and Benfica tonight. Mourinho's men should be too strong for the Croatians and I recommend them as outright win. It will probably be tougher for the Red Devils during their visit to Portugal. Still, they have an impressive away record in the Champions League in the past few years and they are in great form, so I find it hard for them to get beat. I recommend them as a strong draw-no-bet.

Win: Real Madrid

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Champions League start

Djokovic is just a monster. I cannot think of a more dominant athlete in a sport today than Nole. Arguably his 3 slam victories this year typifies an even greater domination than Tiger's 3 slams a few years back since he's only lost 2 matches the whole year! It's back to the drawing board for Rafa. Nole owns him right now.

Today is the start of a new Champions League season, which seems to grow in bounds of significance from year to year. It seems every player's dream every year is not to win the domestic title but to win the European Cup. Today's matches look to be very close and there could be a flurry of drawn matches. I don't think Barcelona is assured of a win against visiting Milan since it's still got a depleted defence which the Italians could exploit; a draw-no-bet on the Blaugrana looks the safer option and is recommended. Arsenal and Chelsea will have difficult nights against German opponents Dortmund and Leverkusen respectively and those matches can go either way in my opinion. Draw purists will love tonight's fixtures.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona.

Nadal is worth a look

Possibly the worst week-end of selections since I started this blog with 4 of the 9 recommendations biting the dust. In football, Arsenal, Madrid, Bayern and Man City won, but Barcelona failed to beat Sociedad in a farcical second-half and Dortmund were stunned at home to Hertha. Fulham drew at home against Blackburn for a void punt. Blue Bunting and Fame and Glory were disappointing in their St Leger races and it looks that they deserve a good rest after a long season.

It was business as usual in the Premier League where the Manchester teams are setting up a torrid pace at the back. Rooney and Aguero are arguably the best 2 strikers in the world at the moment and each bagged a hat-trick. Arsenal beat Swansea by the minimum of margins as they work on integrating the new players that have come during the transfer deadline. Chelsea won as well but one cannot help but feel it's not all harmony among the players. Torres is making the headlines for the wrong reasons again today as the club is publicly acknowledging that an internal investigation is under-way to verify his non-flattering comments about his "old" and "slow" team-mates in a Spanish interview. Quite unprecedented really! Usually, it's a "we do not comment" statement that emanates from clubs in such circumstances, and this openness in singling out the player means that the failed Spaniard striker is quite in trouble.

In Spain, it's first blood to Real Madrid as they take 2 precious points ahead of Barcelona during week 2. The dropped points might come back to haunt the Blaugrana at the end. The season is a long, but I sense that Madrid are the hungrier team among the two. It's hard to see Mourinho's men losing points against second-tier teams like Barcelona on Saturday. The fact that they have the lead will certainly steer them in good stead mentally as well.

In a few hours will be the US Open final between Djokovic and Nadal. I cannot help but feel that Nadal will find a way to win this. Sure he's been beaten by the Serb so many times this year. Clearly, these are the 2 best players in the world. The fact that Nole faced 2 match points against the regressive Federer seems to signal that he can be made vulnerable by the stronger Spaniard. Djokovic is the deserving favourite because of what he's achieved throughout the year, but Nadal looks great value at 1.5/1. To value punters, I recommend him. No guarantees, but with Nadal, you very rarely can go wrong.

Week-end Preview

Opinion Poll justified the Place recommendation and was a game second in the Doncaster Cup. Saddler's Rock from John Oxx's stable was just too good but the Godolphin colt gave it his best, as usual.

Inqdah, who I had mentioned had a great pedigree, came up 6th on his debut, some 3 lengths off the winner. Not too bad for a debutant who ran very green. Definitely one to watch out on his next outing.

On Saturday, Sea Moon and Blue Bunting are justifiably the market leaders for this year's St Leger. I think it will go to either one of the two. Blue Bunting looks to be the value Place bet, so that's my recommendation.

I think Fame and Glory has a really great chance in the Irish version. Although he was last beaten by Fictional Account, whom he's facing again, he's clearly the class of the race and should have no problem with the trip. An each-way looks to be a safe recommendation on him, while those fancying some risk could go for the outright win as well.

Football-wise, the players resume their club activities this week-end after their national duties. Arsenal is prime to finally kick-start its season as it hosts Swansea. This should be a straight win for the Gunners and I recommend them as an outright win. Manchester City look to have an easy game against Wigan on paper but the Latics are proving to be a tough team to break down. Still, I can't see City losing this game, so Mancini's men are recommended as a sure draw-no-bet.

In my opinion, Blackburn look set to fighting in the relegation zone this season and they will struggle during their visit to Fulham. Fulham as draw-no-bet looks good value to me and is recommended.

In Spain, I expect a big win from Real Madrid as it hosts Getafe. Straight win recommended for Mourinho's men. Same for Barcelona as it travels to Real Sociedad. They might leave it late, but Messi and his teammates always find a way to breach any stubborn opponents and they are recommended to win.

In Germany, Bayern Munich are recommended to win at home to Freiburg. Borussia Dortmund are deserved favourites against Hertha Berlin but it's probably safer to have them as draw-no-bet in case they can't breach the Berlin defensive wall.

The Serie A starts this week-end but it's probably better to wait on the results of the initial weeks to have an idea of the relative strength of the teams. The best and worst teams in this League are much closer quality-wise, compared to those in La Liga and Premiership.

Win: Arsenal, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich.
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Fulham, Borussia Dortmund.
Place: Blue Bunting
Each-way: Fame and Glory

Godolphin in good form

It was a case of 2-3-4 with Fa'iz coming out 2nd, Lady Percy 3rd for a good Place and Special Boy finishing a disappointing 4th after having been hampered. All close results but in the end, no much of a difference on the balance sheet.

There are a few runners on Friday that caught my interest. Opinion Poll looks to have a good chance in the 14:25 Doncaster Cup. This son of Halling always seems to give his best and he's beaten a few of the same opponents on his last outing. Al Zarooni, the Godolphin trainer mentions that his horse should be in the thereabouts and this generally means he's confident of a good race. I see Opinion Poll in the first 3, so I recommend him as a Place.

It will be interesting to see how Inqadh, again from Godolphin, performs on his debut in the Wolverhampton 19:10. He's a son of Argentinian superstar Invasor, whose progenies have hit the board lately in England. He looks a promising sire. Inqadh's dam is Saywaan who was so impressive in winning the only race she ran. Inqadh looks to be the stable's second string as Ajtebi has chosen Echo of Dream. Obviously, there's nothing certain whenever new debutants are concerned, but for those looking for a potentially rewarding outcome with some risk, Inqadh could be one to look at. Certainly the best of the lot on pedigree.

Place: Opinion Poll

Thursday preview

England beat Wales, as expected and should go ahead and book its ticket to the Euro Finals by snatching at least a point in Montenegro in their next game. I thought Capello's men were in control of the game although they could have lost 2 points had Earnshaw not missed that open net opportunity.Definitely one of the misses of all time, although I've seen a few worse.

I have a few value picks from Thursday's racing cards. In the Wolverhampton 18:10 maiden race, I like Fa'iz from the Godolphin stable. The latter seems to be on a good current vein of form particularly with its juveniles. On form, there does not seem to be any major contender for Fa'iz and I strongly fancy the Dansili colt to be in the first 3. With some course luck, it should win it as well. I recommend it as each-way.

In the 14:35 race at Chepstow, I like another 2-year old from the Godolphin crew in Special Boy. This Invincible Spirit colt has shown nothing in his first 2 outings but is coming back from a 90-day layoff. Provided the trainer has sorted out any wrong with this expensive yearling, he should be playing a major role among this average field. His main opponent looks to be Lady Percy, a Sir Percy filly who had a good debut when coming home 4th around 3 weeks ago at Salisbury. I recommend Special Boy as an each-way and Lady Percy as a Place.

Each-way: Fa'iz, Special Boy

Place: Lady Percy

No way for Wales

A few races of note over the week-end as well as the European qualifiers, but nothing to really crow about in the world of racing or football.

So You Think won the Champion stakes race at Leopardstown beating the good filly Snow Fairy by half a length. After this race, it's hard to have a gauge of the real ability of SYT. If he had won by much more, as was expected, he would have possibly confirmed being the best in the world from the 10-12 furlong distance. The fact that he struggled to win more convincingly could be attributed to his 2 month lay-off, or that Snow Fairy was at the top of her game, which is not far from the truth after 2 conditional outings. Still, deep down, SYT connections and supporters, like myself, will no doubt have been disappointed with the manner of the win.

England is expected to beat Wales today for the Euro qualifiers and I certainly think they will. Wales is a sad sight in international football and I wish it was otherwise. Sad because over the years, they have produced world-class players of the likes of Neville Southall, Ryan Giggs and Gareth Bale along with decent players like Hartson, Speed, Bellamy, but never been able to make them work as a team. The closest that they came to being competitive were a few years ago when Mark Hughes was at the helm. He produced wondrous results such as beating Italy but came just short at the end. Had he continued and not gone back to club football, maybe the success of the Welsh team would have continued. But I don't see much hope of them being a premier team for now or years to come. To become that, they would need a first-class manager, not a newcomer who's learning the ropes of management. But again, which first-rate manager would want to manage the team, one has to ask. It's too bad because a talent like Gareth Bale would benefit heaps playing European Championships and World Cups. England to win is the recommendation.

Win: England

Transfer dealings

The Summer deadline day has gone and Arsenal was very active in snatching at least 4 new players. The club had to really, after the trauma of the opening weeks of the season! It reminded me of the case where the crowd (fans) wanted blood and the king (Wenger) could only try to appease it, albeit unwillingly. The backbone of the Gunners team is getting major revamp and it will be interesting if that has any incidence on the beautiful football preached by the Gunners maestro

Arteta leaving Everton is a major blow to the Toffees in my opinion. The club or the manager understandably did not want to let their major playmaker leave. I already mentioned that this Everton team will struggle this season and without Arteta, the situation has gone from bad to worse. I won't go as far as point to relegation fears as some analysts have, but there will be many cases during the season where Everton will be a big lay; at least until they can reinforce during the winter transfer window. Such opportunities for backing against them will hopefully be not missed.

Hargreaves switching allegiance to the blue side of Manchester is interesting. There is no doubt that if he's fully fit, he's a very good player. Mancini has no money problems so it is logical for him to take the gamble on Hargreaves. It's a case of if he can play, he will be a great asset to a star-studded squad; if he can't play, so goes the Sheikh's money. Fireworks will be expected if he plays against the Red Devils.

Talking of Man Utd, the fact that they did not move for Sneijder could come back to haunt them. The Dutchman revealed there were talks but nothing concluded out of them. Tom Cleverley has shown glimpses of brilliance but the question is whether he can maintain his progression, his fitness, his high level of play during the whole season. Any failure to do so will extinguish any hopes of the Red Devils topping Spanish giants Barcelona and Real Madrid for the European title.

There's always the January transfer window for clubs to turn their season around in case some transfers did not pan out. But overall, besides the Everton impression, teams in the EPL and in Europe look more or less at the level they have been at in the past weeks.

Kings of bloodstock

I am no pedigree expert but I certainly keep a keen eye on the bloodstock scene. After all, pedigree is one of the 3 most important ingredients when analyzing a race card, in my opinion. Most experts would concur that the best stallion in the world today is Galileo. I believe he is the only stallion with a "private" fee, which gives an indication of the special treatment and regard he is given. His impact as a sire has been very immediate with high-flyers like Soldier of Fortune, Sixties Icon, Age of Aquarius, Red Rocks, Rip Van Winkle etc; very much a lot from the Ballydoyle contingent.

What amazes me with Galileo is that this year, he seems to have reached even new heights with star performers like Treasure Beach, Roderic O'connor and more importantly, the unbeaten trio of Frankel, Maybe and South African-based Igugu.

The exploits of Frankel have been well documented. He's the wonder horse that most believe is unbeatable. Everyone is waiting for his next start. Then there's Maybe, who's added the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes to her resume last week-end. She's unbeaten in five and is favourite for next year's 1000 Guineas. Then, there's Igugu who won South Africa's Golden Tiara, the country's Triple Crown, and whose trainer, Mike de Kock, rates as the equal of Ipi Tombe. Quite a reference to be associated with the wonder filly.

All 3 are worthy champions and are the dominating figures among their peers. Galileo can have his stock win at the highest level from 8 to 14 furlongs, which says a lot of his versatility as a sire. If his great sire Sadler's Wells was known mainly for producing high-class colts and fillies primed for Classic distances, Galileo looks to be able to produce equally-good speedier types.

If Galileo is that good, then one can only dream on the promise of his half-brother, Sea The Stars. There is no doubt that the racing world is awaiting with baited breath the introduction of the sons and daughters of the wonder horse in a couple of years. These are really exciting times for the bloodstock industry.

And talking of sons of Urban Sea, the press has it that Galileo's and Sea The Star's half-brother Born To Sea will be making his debut for John Oxx in a few weeks. His sire is Invincible spirit, so on paper, he should be a very precocious type. Certainly watch for the name on the future race cards.

Big guns firing

The sole prediction of Real Madrid was an easy one and the Los Blancos have signaled their intentions with the demolishing of Zaragoza. I think it will pay to follow Madrid a lot this year even at prohibitively low odds because they look certain to win a very high percentage of their matches. So long as the tricky games are avoided.

I am truly amazed by the achievements of Christiano Ronaldo. I mentioned it before; Messi is very possibly the better and more explosive player, but Ronaldo is the Most Valuable Player (MVP) to his team. Messi can count on a cast of superstars to score the wonderful goals he's getting us used to every week, but Ronaldo does not enjoy such formidable teammates. So bagging so many hat-tricks for fun is really quite an achievement.

I expect Barcelona to match up to Real Madrid's winning start by beating Villareal in a few hours. They are recommended as an outright win. It will be a case of one of the teams setting up the tempo and the other team following. As I was mentioning, it will be rewarding to back both teams many times as long as they can be avoided on their occasional off-nights.

In the Premier League, the Manchester teams are leading the pack, so far validating my previews that they will be the main protagonists for the title this year. What else can I say that has not been written about the demolishing of Arsenal by the Red Devils? Man Utd are in truly great form and are to be followed closely on what seems to be a good winning run for them. Arsenal aren't "that bad" but the future does not look good for either management or the team's prospects for trophies. In my opinion, losing Fabregas and Nasri has broken the backbone of this team. They need Wilshere and their defensive corps back.

What about Man City? They have a resurgent Dzeko on fire and even better things seem to be coming from them. It will be folly to punt against them in any way. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Man City; to me, these are the best teams in Europe for now. By far, and for much of the unfolding season.

Win: Barcelona

La Liga start

Barcelona just won the Super Cup without much surprise by beating Porto 2-0. As the La Liga season starts tomorrow, the question is whether Barcelona will again crush the challenge from Real Madrid, or if the Los Blancos will finally be able to go the distance against their fierce rivals.

With the reinforcement from Alexis Sanchez and Cesc Fabregas, Barcelona look to be an even better team. But that does not guarantee success at the end of the season, since Real Madrid look prime to be winning most of their matches as well. It will be down to few points, it will be down to the 2 matches between these protagonists. Anything other than winning 3 points in any game will most probably have an devastating effect for both teams. They will both be expected to win against everyone else, even against the likes of also-rans like Sevilla, Villareal and Valencia.

It is said that Mourinho makes his team even better in his second season, so Barcelona will be well aware that the threat from Madrid will be even greater than last year's. The Los Blancos are thirsty for glory, and any lack of drive or thirst from the Catalans resulting from their long haul of trophies is bound to help the cause of Mourinho's men.

Real Madrid travel to Zaragoza and it will be a case of must-win for the visitors. They won't lose and most probably will win. A draw-no-bet on Real Madrid is a banker. The prospect of a win look very good and is recommended.


Win: Real Madrid