Monday, November 1, 2010

Tuesday Champions League and Melbourne Cup.

Over the years, the return leg of the Champions League match-ups (from the previous round a fortnight ago) has presented some mine-fields. That's because it's almost the 2 teams with the same starting eleven that are playing again, and the coaches have worked on tweaking their tactics for the second match. The scenario is almost like a return leg in the knock-out stages except that the result of the first match does not matter for advancing. With that in mind, I find it a common mistake to guess the outcome of these match-ups based on the first match only.

The safest bet that I can find is a Draw-no-bet with Rubin Kazan against Panathinaikos. The Russians are dangerous at home in both domestic and European competitions, and are currently in good form. If they manage to contain Djibril Cisse, they shouldn't be losing this game. The problem with Rubin is that they are not a freely-scoring team, and might be into trouble if Pana scores first and closes shop. For this reason, I cannot recommend any bet on them.

I also think Barcelona and Man Utd will return with a win or draw but since they will not be fielding their first teams, they are not guarantees.

In racing, the Melbourne Cup is running in some hours. I concur with the many that find this race is the hardest Flat race to win. I find it also the hardest to handicap. For the past years, we've seen Listed European raiders do very well (actually nearly win this race), while multiple Group 1 raiders (think Yeats) have flopped badly. It's a unique 2-mile race where stamina and tactical speed are important. For the Europeans, the ground is also crucial. The Australian "firm" ground is different from the European equivalent. I will only watch this race as a spectacle; hopefully there are no hard-luck stories and the best wins again.

No recommendations for today, but if you fancy some level of risk, the teams mentioned above might be good to follow.


  1. Well done France! The way he did it seems to indicate that maybe he could come back next year! Hopefully that's the case. What a year for Dynaformer who's establishing himself in international turf races. And the dam is out of the great Arazi. Great story indeed!

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